观点网讯：1月7日，上海世茂建设有限公司（世茂建设）发布了《上海世茂建设有限公司关于未能清偿 到期债务的公告》。 公告显示，2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日，上海世茂建设有限公司新增单笔逾期金额超过1000万元的 有息债务共计约4.2亿元。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 世茂建设表示，近年以来，房地产市场持续承压，新房市场需求端目前依旧提振乏力，世茂亦受到影 响。尽管公司积极采取各项举措促销售、稳经营，但仍未走出销售下行困局。在过往数年中，公司亦承 受了大量的保交付资金支出及债务偿付资金支出等压力，公司融资渠道收窄、受限的局面也未有效改 观。目前，公司整体运转和偿债能力有较大压力，当前仍面临流动性紧张的问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17, and a total increase of over 32% since November 24 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices has led to a decline in the gold-silver ratio, reaching a four-year low [2] - Key drivers for silver's stronger performance compared to gold include macro liquidity easing, intensified supply-demand imbalances, and increased investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2023 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 have contributed to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16%, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for several years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI growing rapidly, while mineral supply remains constrained [2] - It is projected that the silver market will face a shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, with over 50% of demand driven by industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that 72% of mined silver is sourced from copper, lead, and zinc by-products [2] Group 3: Market Behavior and Risks - The COMEX futures market is currently facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" that amplifies price increases [3] - Analysts caution about potential short-term pullback risks due to the rapid price increase, with concerns that the market may enter an overbought territory [3] - The RSI indicator for silver is above 85, indicating severe overbought conditions, and the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver have reached a record high since 2020, suggesting accumulated profit-taking pressure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing liquidity tightening in the global financial system, with JPMorgan Chase transferring $350 billion from its Federal Reserve account to U.S. Treasury bonds to lock in yields before potential interest rate cuts [1][2][3] - JPMorgan has significantly reduced its deposits at the Federal Reserve from $409 billion at the end of 2022 to $63 billion by the third quarter of 2023, while increasing its U.S. Treasury holdings from $231 billion to $450 billion during the same period [2][3] - The actions of JPMorgan are seen as a preparation for a potential end to a profitable period, as the bank aims to secure higher yields amidst a declining interest rate environment [2][3] Group 2 - The shadow banking system, valued at $63 trillion, is emerging as a potential source of instability in global financial markets, particularly in a high-interest rate environment [4][5] - The private credit market, currently around $1.8 trillion, poses risks due to liquidity mismatches and a concentration of funds in less liquid assets, which could lead to liquidity gaps during market stress [4][5] - Recent trends in the credit market indicate rising concerns, with high-yield bonds experiencing price declines and increasing yields, signaling a reassessment of non-traditional financing models and high-leverage capital structures [5]

美国最大银行的一项重大资产调配，可能正在揭示近期市场流动性紧张的部分原因。 摩根大通近日正将其数百亿美元的现金储备从美联储撤出，转而大举买入美国国债。这一旨在对冲利率下行风险的策略 性举动，因其巨大体量对整个银行系统的流动性产生了显著影响，并引发了市场关于2019年回购危机是否会重演的激烈 讨论。 据行业数据追踪机构BankRegData汇编的最新数据显示，自2023年底以来，摩根大通已将其在美联储的存款余额从4090亿 美元大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元，提取了近3500亿美元。与此同时，该行在同一时期内持有的美国国债规模从 2310亿美元激增至4500亿美元。 据英国《金融时报》分析，摩根大通提取资金的规模之大，足以抵消全美其余4000多家银行在美联储资金流动的总和， 成为导致系统准备金净流出的决定性因素。数据显示，自2023年底以来，所有美国银行在美联储的存款总额从1.9万亿美 元降至约1.6万亿美元。这意味着，如果剔除摩根大通的操作，美国银行系统的总准备金实际上是增加的。 此举凸显了这家资产超过4万亿美元的银行巨头，如何为高利率时代的结束做准备。过去，银行可以将现金存放在美联储 赚取高额利息，而 ...

大家好，我是乔叔，今天咱们唠一唠去年11月那场让市场"跳水"的大事件，到底是哪个金融指标暗地里 敲响了警报——SOFR息差有啥猫腻？ 最近，华尔街不少圈内人几乎是同一时间盯上了一个平常容易被忽视的数字。这个数字名叫SOFR，看 似不起眼，但它和美联储给银行的钱"底价"之间的差距突然拉大，达到32个基点，这是疫情后都少见的 罕见高位。 这种变动，对于熟悉市场水流的人来讲，就是资金突然变得难找、贵得发烫的信号。表面看上去，市场 还是那些老面孔，但台下资金已开始脱轨，气氛压抑得有点像暴风雨来临前的闷热。 危机暗涌：市场资金突然吃紧 SOFR其实就是金融机构之间借钱的利率。正常情况下，这个利率和美联储那套"给银行存钱的利息"差 不了多少，大家都能轻松借到钱。 可差值一旦上去，说明银行宁可把钱留着，也不愿意轻易借出去。那段时间市场就像被抽走水的鱼塘， 钱少得厉害，做生意的人都感受到水位骤降。 尤其是那些靠短期贷款维持生意的投资公司，每天都得低头琢磨怎么填补资金窟窿。 杠杆玩家被逼上绝路，资产价格集体跳水 就这样从纳斯达克到比特币，从外到内，各路市场像被推着冲下滑梯一样，短短一个月里，数不清的金 融资产狂跌。 投资人表面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

在经历本周初的抛售潮后，全球股债市场周二企稳，日本国债拍卖需求强劲和加密货币市场回稳，共同缓解了投资者对流动性紧 张的担忧。 周二，日本10年期国债拍卖吸引到包括养老基金在内的稳健需求，令亚洲市场情绪回暖。比特币上涨0.7%至87053.6美元，以太坊 上涨0.5%至2806.78美元，止住此前逾5%的跌势。 日元兑美元汇率企稳，日本股市微幅收涨。基准日经225指数和东证指数均上涨0.1%，日元兑美元小幅走弱0.1%。其他亚洲市场 表现平稳，香港恒生指数持平，中国沪深300指数上涨0.5%，韩国Kospi指数上涨1.7%。 市场波动源于植田和男的表态令投资者认为日本央行将近一年来首次加息。这推动日债收益率升至多年高位，并波及全球债市， 同时触发比特币等风险资产的抛售。 日债拍卖稳定市场情绪 瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori表示："市场似乎认为（12月加息）基本上已成定局。"有关日本央行可能加息的新一轮猜测推动 日本大型银行股走高。日本最大银行MUFG股价周二上涨2.5%，其最大竞争对手SMFG股价收盘上涨3%。 植田和男的言论推动日本国债收益率升至多年高位——债券收益率与价格呈反向变动——并引发全球其 ...

11月26日，美国财长贝森特在讲话中虽然试图轻描淡写，但他提到的"裂痕"和"流动性紧张"却暴露了美联储的真实困境，数据显示，美联储目前的资产负债 表规模仍高达6.56万亿美元，且因高利率政策导致向金融机构支付巨额利息，已累计亏损2400亿美元。 一个亏损2400亿美元的央行，这在金融学教科书里是不可想象的，通常央行是赚钱的，因为它有铸币税。 美联储的"亏损黑洞" 但美联储现在不仅不赚钱，还在巨额亏钱，原因在于前几年印钞太猛了，为了救市，美联储买了大量的高价国债，现在利率上去了，这些国债价格暴跌，成 了烂账，同时，美联储还要给银行的准备金付高额利息，这就叫"借钱给别人花，利息还得自己贴"。 在华尔街光鲜亮丽的摩天大楼下，埋藏着一颗当量惊人的定时炸弹——美联储那高达6.56万亿美元的资产负债表，这颗炸弹不仅吞噬了美联储的盈利，造成 了创纪录的2400亿美元亏损，更让整个美国金融体系的流动性岌岌可危，美国财长贝森特所谓的"改造"计划，表面上是为了简化运作，实则是为了掩盖这个 即将引爆的黑洞，当中国看穿了这一切，果断选择减持美债离场时，美国人终于慌了，他们发现，没有了中国的资金输血，这个庞大的债务泡沫，随时可能 在下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock index shows strong resilience, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe the market due to the ongoing repricing adjustment of A - shares after the third - quarter reports, with limited downside risks and shrinking trading volume [4]. - For treasury bonds, the long - term bond is affected by the expected implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemptions, and the curve slightly steepens. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in the short term [11]. - For base metals, the prices of most metals are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, with different influencing factors and price ranges for each metal [12][15][18][20][23][26][30][33][37][41][43]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, iron ore is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, and coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [48][50][53][57]. - For agricultural products, the domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial positive factors [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices opened higher and the market recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 3870.02 points. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the situation of Sino - US relations was discussed. Overseas, the US was making progress in promoting the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 25, the A - share market trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous day. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility and mainly observe the market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract rose slightly [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan in November [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is in a range - bound stage. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed divergence. Retail sales growth slowed down, PPI inflation rose, and private - sector employment decreased. The Fed official supported interest - rate cuts, and the market was cautious, with precious metals oscillating [7][8][9]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - **Funding**: The gold ETF changed little, but the silver ETF had a large - scale inflow of over 250 tons [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of November 24, the SCFIS European line index rose 20.7% month - on - month, while the US West route index fell 10.5% month - on - month. As of November 21, the SCFI composite index fell 4% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 20, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market was weak. The main 02 contract fell 7.78% [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to decline in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, while the average premium decreased. Downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand procurement stage [12]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December has returned to 80% [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [12][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, and the downstream demand showed strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased, and copper prices slightly rose and then fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of copper prices [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 25, the spot prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is under pressure [15]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [16]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory and factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum factory inventory increased. The total registered warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated at a low level, and the supply showed signs of contraction. The overall inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the market may bottom out and oscillate [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased. Market activity and actual transactions increased after the price decline [18]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High prices restricted downstream demand [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory and LME inventory decreased [19]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level position - reduction and correction trend, with a combination of positive and negative factors in the macro and fundamental aspects. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21100 - 21700 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be further downward space in the short term [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 25, the average prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [20]. - **Demand**: The traditional automobile consumption season is in progress, but the demand transmission is not smooth, and high prices suppress downstream procurement [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased [21]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level correction trend. The cost side was strongly supported, and the supply was restricted by raw materials. The demand was affected by high prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD02 and short on AL02 can be considered when the spread is above 650 [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased. The spot purchase was still based on demand, and the transaction was average [23]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased, and the profit of smelters was compressed. It is expected that the output of refined zinc will decline in November [24]. - **Demand**: The spot premium increased. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were basically stable, and the downstream purchased on dips. The export space was opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [25]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals changed little, and the zinc price oscillated. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand improved structurally. It is expected to continue to oscillate [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 25, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the premium remained unchanged. The market transaction was light [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the import volume of tin ore and tin ingot showed different trends. It is expected that the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar will increase in November, and the import volume of tin ingot will remain at a low level [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory increased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in South China is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain a long - position on tin due to strong fundamentals [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased. The supply of refined nickel decreased, and it was difficult to find discounted spot goods [30]. - **Supply**: In the capacity expansion cycle, the output of refined nickel is expected to decrease month - on - month but remains at a high level [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support [31]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded - area inventory is stable [31]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated and recovered. The upstream production reduction and low valuation drove the market. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate and recover [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable or increased, and the basis decreased [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the cost support of chromium iron is weakening [34]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of stainless steel increased. In November, the production is expected to decrease slightly. The supply pressure is still high [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market slightly rose, and the spot market purchase price was stable. The macro situation is temporarily stable, the raw material cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure remains. It is expected to oscillate [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 25, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The trade volume improved but was still average [37]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The supply is expected to increase, mainly driven by the increase in lithium extraction from spodumene [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic. The production schedules of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [38][39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other links increased [39]. - **Logic**: The market was strong. The industry is optimistic about next year, and the market sentiment is bullish. The fundamentals remain strong, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe the market [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of polysilicon remained unchanged [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic output of polysilicon is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [41]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 4000 tons to 271,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased [42]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, the futures price oscillated and rose, and the backwardation structure deepened. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [43]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [43]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [43]. - **Supply**: In November, the output of industrial silicon is expected to decrease to about 400,000 tons, mainly due to the production reduction in Southwest China [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [44]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures market strengthened, and the spot price followed. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil remained stable [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the price of iron ore was relatively stable. The profit of steel mills was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [46]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the output of iron elements increased year - on - year. Recently, the molten iron output decreased, and the output of five major steel products increased [46]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand in November increased compared to October [46]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction is expected to continue [47]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will oscillate within a range. The rebar is expected to oscillate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil is expected to oscillate between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [48]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of mainstream iron ore

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