Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent liquidity crunch in the US market due to the extended government shutdown has led to a general decline in risk - asset prices, including crude oil. High tanker freight rates have made it difficult for Western resources to arbitrage, and the market is gradually digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, while the medium - term strategy is a bearish allocation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Crude oil futures prices declined: The December - delivery light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 96 cents to $59.60 per barrel, a 1.59% drop; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London dropped 92 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.43% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.95% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - UAE's oil inventory: As of the week ending November 5, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 18.607 million barrels, up 851,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [1]. - OPEC supply: In September, the daily crude oil supply of 9 OPEC countries with quotas was 23.87 million barrels, an increase of 760,000 barrels from August and 940,000 barrels higher than the target daily output. Saudi Arabia's daily supply was 9.98 million barrels, an increase of 550,000 barrels from August, meeting the target. OPEC+ will further increase production slightly in December but will suspend the production - increase plan from January to March 2026 due to seasonal factors. From January to March next year, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman will increase compensatory production cuts monthly, with a total reduction of 822,000 barrels per day in June to compensate for previous over - production [1]. - Libyan oil production plan: Libya's current oil production is close to 1.4 million barrels per day. The goal is to increase production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, 1.6 million barrels per day next year, and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [1]. - Saudi Aramco's demand forecast: Saudi Aramco's CEO expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025, with strong demand growth in 2026 [1]. Investment Logic The extended US government shutdown has caused a liquidity crunch, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. High tanker freight rates have hindered Western resource arbitrage, and the market is digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The lack of continuous upward movement in the Dubai month - spread indicates a slowdown in the shift from Russian oil to Middle Eastern oil [2]. Strategy Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and a bearish allocation is recommended in the medium term [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As the effective date of Russian oil sanctions approaches (November 21), buyers are cutting Russian oil purchases, with India and Turkey recently stating they will reduce imports. The physical market is generally loose except for a local tightness in the Middle East, and the sanctions will increase the divergence between sour and sweet oil and between the East and West markets [2] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium - term [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7 cents to $61.05 per barrel, a 0.11% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose 12 cents to $64.89 per barrel, a 0.19% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.41% at 467 yuan per barrel [1] - After the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil producers, Turkish refiners started to cut Russian crude purchases and seek additional oil sources from countries like Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan. Turkey, the third - largest buyer of Russian oil, was pressured by the Trump administration before September and now decides to join Western allies to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, but won't fully stop importing Russian oil [1] - US EIA data showed that US crude oil production increased by 86,000 barrels per day in August, reaching a record high of 13.8 million barrels per day, and the total natural gas production in the 48 contiguous states also climbed to a record 122.8 billion cubic feet per day in August [1] Investment Logic - As the Russian oil sanctions approach, buyers are reducing purchases. The physical market is loose except in the Middle East, and the sanctions will widen the gap between different types of oil and different regional markets [2] Strategy - Oil prices will have short - term range - bound fluctuations, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Other Statements - ExxonMobil CEO said the demand outlook for oil, gas, and chemicals is good; Abu Dhabi National Oil CEO said oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels per day after 2040 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is expected to experience significant fluctuations this week, influenced by various economic events and central bank decisions [2][3] - Key events include the APEC leaders' informal meeting and multiple central bank interest rate decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada [2] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have led to a substantial framework agreement, easing trade tensions and potentially impacting gold prices [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has been in a wide range of fluctuations, with a current trend characterized as broad oscillation, awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for further direction [3][5] - The price levels to watch are resistance around 4100 and support near 4000, with a potential downward movement if the price breaks below 4000 [5] - The short-term strategy suggests focusing on selling during rebounds and buying during pullbacks, with specific attention to resistance and support levels [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has shown signs of recovery, with Brent prices surpassing $66 and WTI nearing $62, driven by improved demand expectations and supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian oil [6] - The current upward trend is influenced by a combination of improved sentiment regarding trade and supply chain issues, rather than solely a recovery in demand [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - Oil prices have shown a shift from a downward trend to a transitional phase, with recent price movements indicating potential for a mid-term recovery [7] - The short-term outlook suggests a focus on buying during price dips and selling during rebounds, with key resistance levels identified between $62.0 and $63.0 and support levels between $59.5 and $58.5 [7]

Group 1 - The European Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap on Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [1]