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LPG早报-20260326
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. Currently, the basis is weak (-1000), domestic refinery gas is sufficient in the short term, and there are intentions to deliver warehouse receipts from some warehouses. The 4 - 5 month spread on the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. Looking ahead, a shortage of LPG in China in the second half of April is inevitable. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the civil LPG demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - From March 19 - 25, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an upward trend. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 on March 19 to 7210 on March 25. Paper import profit increased from -3111 on March 19 to 1 on March 25, and the main basis changed from -392 to 120 [1]. - On March 25, the PG2605 contract closed at 6550 (-286) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 242 (+47), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0). The night - session closed at 6565 (-29), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 225 (-17) [1]. - Shandong civil LPG price was 6470 (-80), Shandong ether - post carbon four was 6470 (+0), Shandong propane was 6870 (-80), and Longkou Port propane was 7500 (+0) [1]. 3.2 Weekly Data Changes - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures price rose significantly. The basis was -1057 (-736), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 64 (-68) [1]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - post at 5950 (+520) [1]. - The FEI month spread was 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the domestic and international PG - FEI c1 dropped to 35 (-15.5) [1]. - The on - shore discount of South China CP propane was 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -76 (+52) [1]. - The spot profit of domestic PDH - made propylene weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH - made PP in East and South China decreased. The port inventory ratio was 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization was 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate was 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].
LPG早报-20260323
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:31
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly. The current situation of domestic PG is a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is blocked for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From March 16 to March 20, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed different degrees of change. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 to 6300, East China LPG from 6122 to 6189, and Shandong LPG from 5530 to 5990. The propane CFR South China price first rose and then fell, from 980 to 1093. The CP forecast contract price increased from 582 to 600. The price of Shandong alkylated oil remained at 9200, while the paper import profit changed from - 1420 to - 2207, and the main basis changed from - 154 to - 545 [1]. Market Indicators - The basis is - 1057 (- 736), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (- 68). The number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520). Shandong civil LPG is 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG is 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (- 15.5). The South China CP propane landing discount is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (- 54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52) [1]. Profit and Inventory - The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].
LPG早报-20260320
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 01:21
Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The report's core view is that the LPG market had significant fluctuations and a rising center last week, mainly following oil prices. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the 4 - 5 month spread was positive. The key factor for the future is when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic, and short - term spot quotes depend on international oil prices. A shortage of LPG is likely in April in China, more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures price may continue to follow oil prices, and the month spread will be strong [1] Group 3 Daily Quotes - On March 19, the PG2604 contract closed at 6392 (+626) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 109 (+13) and 1800 (+0) warehouse receipts. The night session closed at 6660 (+449), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 8 (-101). Shandong's civil LPG continued to rise, with a mainstream transaction of 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton. Shandong's ether - post LPG was 5810 (+300). Longkou Port's propane price was 7200 (+0), and Shandong's propane - propylene price was 8525 (+480). The East China market was stable with some individual increases, with a mainstream transaction of 5760 - 6340 yuan/ton [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the futures price fluctuated greatly and the center rose, mainly following oil prices. The basis rose and fell sharply, with the latest at - 321 (+346), and the 4 - 5 month spread at 132 (+5). There were 3108 (-1544) warehouse receipts. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong's ether - post LPG at 5430 (+280). Shandong's civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and East China's civil LPG was 6159 (+1178). The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated downward. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 52.4 (-45). The CIF discount for South China's CP propane was 402 (+30). The FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 126 (-59). The spot profit of PDH strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5pct). The external supply of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 (-1.8) million tons. The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7pct) [1]
LPG早报-20260318
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 01:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the futures price fluctuated greatly and the center moved up, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, the 4 - 5 month spread was 132 (+5), and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1544 to 3108 lots. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 5430 (+280). PDH spot profit strengthened significantly, port inventory ratio decreased by 5.5 pct to 35.05%, and the external supply of liquefied gas sample enterprises decreased by 1.8 to 54.4 tons. PDH operating rate decreased by 1.7 pct to 63.23. The subsequent core lies in when the Strait of Hormuz will resume passage, and short - term spot quotes mainly depend on international oil prices. There will probably be a shortage of goods in China in April, more serious in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures price may still follow the oil price, and the month spread will run strongly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Quotes - On March 17, the PG2604 contract closed at 5849 (+10) at 3 pm, the 4 - 5 month spread was 113 (-27), and the number of warehouse receipts was 1800 (+0). The night session closed at 5848 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 83 (-30). Shandong civil gas was 5520 (+0), with a fair trading atmosphere. Shandong ether - post was 5450 (+30). Longkou Port propane was 7200 (+0), and Shandong propylene price was 8025 (+0). The East China market declined steadily, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 5900 - 6280 yuan/ton, and the demand was average, with high - price refineries having difficulty in selling goods [1] Weekly Quotes - Last week, the futures price fluctuated greatly and the center moved up, mainly following the oil price. The basis was - 321 (+346), the 4 - 5 month spread was 132 (+5), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3108 (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 5430 (+280). Shandong civil gas was 5550 (+610), and East China civil gas was 6159 (+1178). The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), the oil - gas price ratio declined oscillatingly. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The CIF discount of South China CP propane was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 126 (-59). PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5 pct), and the external supply of liquefied gas sample enterprises was 54.4 tons (-1.8). The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7 pct) [1]
LPG早报-20260316
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 02:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the LPG futures market fluctuated significantly with a rising central value, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest basis was -321 (+346), with the April - May spread at 132 (+5). The number of warehouse receipts decreased to 108 (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 430 (+280). The PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5pct), and the LPG sample enterprises' external supply was 64.4 tons (-1.8). The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7pct). The subsequent core lies in the temporary passage of the Strait of Hormuz, and short - term spot quotes mainly depend on the international oil price. There will likely be a shortage of LPG in China in April, more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures market may still follow the oil price, and the spread will be strong [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - From March 9 - 13, 2026, the market prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed fluctuations. For example, on March 9, the South China LPG price was 5920, and on March 13, it was 5550. The daily changes in prices, basis, and other indicators were also presented, such as a - 105 change in South China LPG price on March 13 compared to the previous day [1]. Market Indicators - The FEI monthly spread was 84 US dollars (+27), and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated downward. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The South China 2P propane arrival discount was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOP spread was - 126 (-59) [1]. Supply and Demand - The port inventory ratio decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 35.05%, and the LPG sample enterprises' external supply decreased by 1.8 tons to 64.4 tons. The PDH operating rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 63.23 [1].