市场情绪扰动，盘面波动加剧 工业硅/多晶硅 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格波动幅度加大。截至2025年11月21日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8900元/吨， 环比上周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约偏弱震荡后大幅冲高回落，截至11月21日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工率保持稳定，供应以稳为主；西北青海、宁夏、甘肃地区开工变化不大；云南地区个别硅企有减 停，产量小幅回落；四川地区平水期，月底将进入枯水期，开工率将进一步下调。整体而言，工业硅产量环比下降。 需求：多晶硅企业周度开工环比持稳，对工业硅需求较为稳定；有机硅开工环比基本稳定，近期有少量单体产能增开， 有机硅反内卷会议后价格出现调涨，引发硅能源大幅反弹，但随后市场逐步消化情绪，价格也有所回落；铝合金企业 开工率小幅增加，下游订单需求尚可。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计11月20日工业硅全国社会库存共计54.8万吨， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly, but the spot transaction has improved. Supply has shrunk, consumption has increased month - on - month, and there is also uncertainty in other lithium ore supplies. The subsequent start - up situation of the ore end needs attention. The lithium ore approval issue remains uncertain, and the recent market may still fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 13, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 83,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, with a - 0.61% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,245,424 lots, and the open interest was 392,675 lots. The previous day's open interest was 356,998 lots. The current basis was - 3,360 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 21,679 lots, an increase of 850 lots from the previous trading day [2] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,100 - 79,500 yuan/ton, also an increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 970 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton. Due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the transaction price of lithium carbonate spot has continued to rise significantly [2] Strategy - Supply has shrunk, consumption has increased month - on - month, and there is uncertainty in other lithium ore supplies. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up of the ore end. The lithium ore approval issue remains uncertain, and the recent market may fluctuate. Participants need to manage risks [3] Hedging Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips for hedging; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]