1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency economic data shows that the production side is relatively stable, with the decline of coke oven and asphalt开工率 and a slight increase in blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率, and a continuous decrease in rebar production. The real - estate market has marginally improved, with a slight increase in commercial housing transaction area. Price trends are differentiated, with international - priced crude oil and copper prices slightly falling, and domestically - priced coking coal and rebar prices rising; agricultural product prices are falling while egg prices are rising before the festival. Residents' travel is heating up, with an increase in subway passenger volume and domestic and international flight volumes, and a continuous upward trend in the peak congestion index of first - tier cities. The domestic and international shipping index trends are also differentiated, with the BDI index continuously recovering and the domestic SCFI index accelerating its decline. In the short term, attention should be focused on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - Coke oven and asphalt开工率 decreased, while blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率 increased slightly. In the week of September 19, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.23 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons. The petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.5 pct. The chemical PX开工率 increased by 2.06 pct compared with the previous week, and PTA remained flat. The all - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 0.07 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.2 pct [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand - Commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the SCFI index decreased significantly. In the week of September 14, the commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate declined. The movie box office decreased by 169 million yuan compared with the previous week. The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 17,700 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 22,700 vehicles. In the week of September 19, the shipping index SCFI decreased by 14.3%, the CCFI decreased by 0.45%, and the BDI increased by 3.62% [3][14][22]. 3.3 Prices - Crude oil and non - ferrous metals prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. In the week of September 19, the Brent crude oil price fell by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel; the coking coal futures price rose by 6.9% to 1,216 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.71%, - 0.93%, and - 1.95% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.64%. The overall price of agricultural products declined, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 2.01%, + 4.91%, - 1.78%, and + 1.48% respectively compared with the previous week [3][24][27]. 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume and flight volume both increased. In the week of September 19, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, the number of domestic and international flights increased, and the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise [4][30][32].

Group 1: Overview of Market Conditions - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in the US dollar index, dropping over 10%, leading to increased global liquidity and strong performance in liquidity-related assets such as gold, emerging market stock indices, and currencies [1] - The US economy is expected to maintain resilience in Q3 2025, despite recent weak non-farm data, which is considered seasonal [3] - Inflation in the US is projected to peak in September 2025 before declining in Q4, which will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - There is a consensus in the market that an interest rate cut is likely in September 2025, with some disagreement on the extent of the cut [5] - The US is entering a period of significant fiscal expansion, supported by the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" plan, which is expected to coincide with monetary easing [6] Group 3: Asset Class Performance Expectations - The outlook for major asset classes in Q3 2025 suggests a short-term strengthening of the dollar, but long-term depreciation is anticipated [8] - US equities are expected to benefit from a weak dollar, although high valuations may limit future expansion [9] - Gold is viewed as having long-term allocation value, with potential short-term volatility [10] - Silver is expected to outperform gold in the short term due to its higher recovery potential [11] - Copper demand remains strong, particularly from AI and new energy vehicles, despite potential risks from tariff policies [12] - Oil supply is expected to remain loose, with reduced geopolitical risks, although demand may decline [13] - US Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to inflation expectations, limiting the extent of interest rate cuts [14] - The dollar may experience a temporary stabilization and rebound, although the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [15]