近期研究报告 《中长久期中高评级城投债流动性下 降——流动性打分周报 20250917》 - 2025.09.17 固收周报 焦煤螺纹钢价格上涨，SCFI 指数加速下行 ——高频数据跟踪 20250921 核心观点 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-09-22 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端相对平稳，焦炉、沥青开工 率下降，高炉、PX、轮胎小幅升高，螺纹钢产量持续下降。第二，房 地产市场边际改善，商品房成交面积小幅回升。第三，物价走势分化， 国际定价的原油、铜价格小幅下跌，国内定价的焦煤、螺纹钢上涨； 农产品价格回落，鸡蛋价格节前持续上涨。第四，居民出行升温，地 铁客运量、国内国际航班量均增加，一线城市高峰拥堵指数持续上行。 第五，国内外航运指数走势分化，BDI 指数持续回升，国内 SCFI 指数 加速下行。短期重点关注反内卷及增量政策落地、房地产市场恢 ...

Group 1: Overview of Market Conditions - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in the US dollar index, dropping over 10%, leading to increased global liquidity and strong performance in liquidity-related assets such as gold, emerging market stock indices, and currencies [1] - The US economy is expected to maintain resilience in Q3 2025, despite recent weak non-farm data, which is considered seasonal [3] - Inflation in the US is projected to peak in September 2025 before declining in Q4, which will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - There is a consensus in the market that an interest rate cut is likely in September 2025, with some disagreement on the extent of the cut [5] - The US is entering a period of significant fiscal expansion, supported by the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" plan, which is expected to coincide with monetary easing [6] Group 3: Asset Class Performance Expectations - The outlook for major asset classes in Q3 2025 suggests a short-term strengthening of the dollar, but long-term depreciation is anticipated [8] - US equities are expected to benefit from a weak dollar, although high valuations may limit future expansion [9] - Gold is viewed as having long-term allocation value, with potential short-term volatility [10] - Silver is expected to outperform gold in the short term due to its higher recovery potential [11] - Copper demand remains strong, particularly from AI and new energy vehicles, despite potential risks from tariff policies [12] - Oil supply is expected to remain loose, with reduced geopolitical risks, although demand may decline [13] - US Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to inflation expectations, limiting the extent of interest rate cuts [14] - The dollar may experience a temporary stabilization and rebound, although the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [15]