Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao - SAC Registration Numbers: S1340523070001, S1340523120001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com, cuichao@cnpsec.com [2] Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: steel production is stable with a slight increase, asphalt开工率 is continuously declining at a high level, PX and PTA开工率 remain flat, and tire开工率 slightly increases; the real estate market shows marginal improvement with increases in both commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices, continuous increase in copper prices, and accelerated upward movement in overall agricultural product prices; domestic and international freight rate indices show a divergent trend, with BDI changing from rising to falling and domestic SCFI and CCFI both rising. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30] Summary by Section Production - Steel production is stable with a slight increase, and tire开工率 is generally on the rise. In the week of October 24, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.83 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.44 pct, and the rebar production increased by 5.91 tons; the petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 pct; the chemical PX and PTA开工率 remained the same as the previous week; the full - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 1.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.95 pct [2][3][9] Demand - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, and SCFI continues to rise. In the week of October 19, the commercial housing transaction area continued to recover, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area recovered, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased; the movie box office decreased by 1.19 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 11,000 vehicles. In the week of October 24, the shipping index SCFI increased by 7.11%, CCFI increased by 2.02%, and BDI decreased by 3.77% [2][3][12] Prices - Crude oil, coking coal, and non - ferrous metals all increased, and the upward movement of agricultural products accelerated. On October 24, the Brent crude oil price increased by 7.59% to $65.94 per barrel, the coking coal futures price increased by 5.66% to 1,251.5 yuan per ton, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +3.21%, +2.81%, and +2.62% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.23%; the overall agricultural product prices increased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 2.11%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.66%, -1.99%, +5.92%, and -1.40% respectively compared with the previous week [3][20][23] Logistics - The number of domestic flights slightly recovered, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of October 24, the subway passenger volume in Beijing slightly increased and that in Shanghai slightly decreased, the number of domestic flights increased while the number of international flights decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [3][26][27] Summary - Crude oil and coking coal prices significantly increased, and copper prices continued to rise. High - frequency economic data focuses on production, demand, prices, and logistics. Short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and the real estate market recovery [30]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-09-28 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《二永还能继续参与吗？——信用周 报 20250924》 - 2025.09.24 固收周报 沥青生产提速，原油铜价上行 ——高频数据跟踪 20250927 核心观点 风险提示 政策效果不及预期，流动性超预期收紧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产稳中有升，钢铁生产相对稳定， 沥青开工率升至近两年最高，财政支出进度或有所加速。第二，房地 产市场边际改善，商品房成交面积连续两周回升。第三，物价整体上 涨，原油、铜价格涨幅较大，黑色系焦煤、螺纹钢小幅下降，农产品 价格重回上行。第四，国内外运价指数走势分化，BDI 稳健上涨，SCFI 持续快速下行。第五，受台风等极端天气影响，执行航班量下降，粤 港澳地区降幅较大。短期重点关注反内卷及增量政策落地、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency economic data shows that the production side is relatively stable, with the decline of coke oven and asphalt开工率 and a slight increase in blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率, and a continuous decrease in rebar production. The real - estate market has marginally improved, with a slight increase in commercial housing transaction area. Price trends are differentiated, with international - priced crude oil and copper prices slightly falling, and domestically - priced coking coal and rebar prices rising; agricultural product prices are falling while egg prices are rising before the festival. Residents' travel is heating up, with an increase in subway passenger volume and domestic and international flight volumes, and a continuous upward trend in the peak congestion index of first - tier cities. The domestic and international shipping index trends are also differentiated, with the BDI index continuously recovering and the domestic SCFI index accelerating its decline. In the short term, attention should be focused on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - Coke oven and asphalt开工率 decreased, while blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率 increased slightly. In the week of September 19, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.23 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons. The petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.5 pct. The chemical PX开工率 increased by 2.06 pct compared with the previous week, and PTA remained flat. The all - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 0.07 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.2 pct [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand - Commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the SCFI index decreased significantly. In the week of September 14, the commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate declined. The movie box office decreased by 169 million yuan compared with the previous week. The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 17,700 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 22,700 vehicles. In the week of September 19, the shipping index SCFI decreased by 14.3%, the CCFI decreased by 0.45%, and the BDI increased by 3.62% [3][14][22]. 3.3 Prices - Crude oil and non - ferrous metals prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. In the week of September 19, the Brent crude oil price fell by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel; the coking coal futures price rose by 6.9% to 1,216 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.71%, - 0.93%, and - 1.95% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.64%. The overall price of agricultural products declined, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 2.01%, + 4.91%, - 1.78%, and + 1.48% respectively compared with the previous week [3][24][27]. 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume and flight volume both increased. In the week of September 19, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, the number of domestic and international flights increased, and the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise [4][30][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data focuses on three aspects: production end heat overall recovery, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and tires, and decreased rebar production; decline in commercial housing transaction area and inventory-to-sales ratio, decrease in land supply area, and continuous increase in residential land transaction premium rate; overall price recovery, with rising prices of crude oil, coking coal, and non-ferrous metals, and falling rebar price, while agricultural products continue the seasonal upward trend, with rising prices of pork and eggs, and falling prices of fruits and vegetables [1][31]. - Short-term key concerns include the implementation of anti-involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of overseas interest rate cuts [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 2.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 3.43 pct, and rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons [1][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 6.8 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while PTA increased by 6.87 pct [1][9]. - Automobile tires: Full-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.81 pct, and semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.99 pct [1][10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio declined, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate continued to rise [1][13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 492 million yuan compared to the previous week [1][13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 52,000 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles [1][17]. - Shipping index: SCFI decreased by 3.21%, CCFI decreased by 2.07%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 7.43% [1][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price rose by 2.27% to $66.99 per barrel, and coking coal futures price increased by 0.89% to 1,137.5 yuan per ton [2][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.72%, +3.78%, and +3.45% respectively, while domestic rebar futures price fell by 0.61% [2][22]. - Agricultural products: Overall price continued the seasonal upward trend, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rising by 0.32%, and the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +0.20%, +2.85%, -1.17%, and -2.74% respectively compared to the previous week [2][24]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Increased in both Beijing and Shanghai [2][27]. - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume continued to decrease, while international flight volume stabilized and slightly increased [2][28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities rebounded significantly [2][28].