Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao - SAC Registration Numbers: S1340523070001, S1340523120001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com, cuichao@cnpsec.com [2] Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: steel production is stable with a slight increase, asphalt开工率 is continuously declining at a high level, PX and PTA开工率 remain flat, and tire开工率 slightly increases; the real estate market shows marginal improvement with increases in both commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices, continuous increase in copper prices, and accelerated upward movement in overall agricultural product prices; domestic and international freight rate indices show a divergent trend, with BDI changing from rising to falling and domestic SCFI and CCFI both rising. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30] Summary by Section Production - Steel production is stable with a slight increase, and tire开工率 is generally on the rise. In the week of October 24, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.83 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.44 pct, and the rebar production increased by 5.91 tons; the petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 pct; the chemical PX and PTA开工率 remained the same as the previous week; the full - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 1.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.95 pct [2][3][9] Demand - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, and SCFI continues to rise. In the week of October 19, the commercial housing transaction area continued to recover, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area recovered, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased; the movie box office decreased by 1.19 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 11,000 vehicles. In the week of October 24, the shipping index SCFI increased by 7.11%, CCFI increased by 2.02%, and BDI decreased by 3.77% [2][3][12] Prices - Crude oil, coking coal, and non - ferrous metals all increased, and the upward movement of agricultural products accelerated. On October 24, the Brent crude oil price increased by 7.59% to $65.94 per barrel, the coking coal futures price increased by 5.66% to 1,251.5 yuan per ton, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +3.21%, +2.81%, and +2.62% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.23%; the overall agricultural product prices increased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 2.11%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.66%, -1.99%, +5.92%, and -1.40% respectively compared with the previous week [3][20][23] Logistics - The number of domestic flights slightly recovered, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of October 24, the subway passenger volume in Beijing slightly increased and that in Shanghai slightly decreased, the number of domestic flights increased while the number of international flights decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [3][26][27] Summary - Crude oil and coking coal prices significantly increased, and copper prices continued to rise. High - frequency economic data focuses on production, demand, prices, and logistics. Short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and the real estate market recovery [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses: production is steadily rising, steel production is relatively stable, asphalt operating rate reaches the highest in the past two years, and the fiscal expenditure progress may accelerate; the real - estate market shows marginal improvement with the commercial housing transaction area rising for two consecutive weeks; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and copper prices, slight decreases in coking coal and rebar of the black series, and agricultural product prices rising again; domestic and foreign freight rate indices show different trends, with BDI rising steadily and SCFI declining rapidly; affected by extreme weather such as typhoons, the number of executed flights decreases, with a large decline in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao region. Short - term focus is on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Steel production rises steadily, and asphalt operating rate hits a two - year high - Steel: In the week of September 26, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output increased by 0.01 tons. The inventory decreased by 0.66 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 40.1%, an increase of 5.7 pct from the previous week, reaching the highest since October 2023 [10]. - Chemical industry: On September 25, the domestic chemical PX operating rate increased by 0.73 pct from the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.64 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: In the week of September 25, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct [11]. Demand: Commercial housing transactions improve marginally, and SCFI declines rapidly - Real estate: In the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.79 million square meters; the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities increased; the land supply area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.41 million square meters; the premium rate of residential land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 1.43 pct [16]. - Movie box office: In the week of September 21, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 1.098 billion yuan [16]. - Automobiles: In the week of September 21, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.43 million vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 0.96 million vehicles [20]. - Shipping index: In the week of September 26, SCFI decreased by 6.98%, CCFI decreased by 2.93%, and BDI increased by 2.54% [22]. Prices: Crude oil and copper prices rise significantly, and agricultural product prices rise again - Energy: On September 26, the Brent crude oil price rose by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.12% to 1,214.5 yuan per ton [24]. - Metals: On September 26, the changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were +2.09%, -1.01%, and -0.41% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.60% [25]. - Agricultural products: On September 26, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.93%. Among major agricultural products, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.31%, +1.44%, +2.01%, and +1.61% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. Logistics: The subway passenger volume increases, and the number of executed flights decreases - Subway passenger volume: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 203,500 person - times, and that of Shanghai increased by 285,700 person - times [30]. - Executed flights: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreased by 521.43 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 58.43 flights, and international flights decreased by 32.57 flights [32]. - Urban traffic: On September 26, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [32]. Summary: Asphalt production speeds up, and crude oil and copper prices rise - The high - frequency economic data focuses are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing short - term attention to policy implementation, real - estate market recovery, and overseas policy impacts [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency economic data shows that the production side is relatively stable, with the decline of coke oven and asphalt开工率 and a slight increase in blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率, and a continuous decrease in rebar production. The real - estate market has marginally improved, with a slight increase in commercial housing transaction area. Price trends are differentiated, with international - priced crude oil and copper prices slightly falling, and domestically - priced coking coal and rebar prices rising; agricultural product prices are falling while egg prices are rising before the festival. Residents' travel is heating up, with an increase in subway passenger volume and domestic and international flight volumes, and a continuous upward trend in the peak congestion index of first - tier cities. The domestic and international shipping index trends are also differentiated, with the BDI index continuously recovering and the domestic SCFI index accelerating its decline. In the short term, attention should be focused on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - Coke oven and asphalt开工率 decreased, while blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率 increased slightly. In the week of September 19, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.23 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons. The petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.5 pct. The chemical PX开工率 increased by 2.06 pct compared with the previous week, and PTA remained flat. The all - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 0.07 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.2 pct [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand - Commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the SCFI index decreased significantly. In the week of September 14, the commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate declined. The movie box office decreased by 169 million yuan compared with the previous week. The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 17,700 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 22,700 vehicles. In the week of September 19, the shipping index SCFI decreased by 14.3%, the CCFI decreased by 0.45%, and the BDI increased by 3.62% [3][14][22]. 3.3 Prices - Crude oil and non - ferrous metals prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. In the week of September 19, the Brent crude oil price fell by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel; the coking coal futures price rose by 6.9% to 1,216 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.71%, - 0.93%, and - 1.95% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.64%. The overall price of agricultural products declined, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 2.01%, + 4.91%, - 1.78%, and + 1.48% respectively compared with the previous week [3][24][27]. 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume and flight volume both increased. In the week of September 19, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, the number of domestic and international flights increased, and the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise [4][30][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data focuses on three aspects: production end heat overall recovery, with increased operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and tires, and decreased rebar production; decline in commercial housing transaction area and inventory-to-sales ratio, decrease in land supply area, and continuous increase in residential land transaction premium rate; overall price recovery, with rising prices of crude oil, coking coal, and non-ferrous metals, and falling rebar price, while agricultural products continue the seasonal upward trend, with rising prices of pork and eggs, and falling prices of fruits and vegetables [1][31]. - Short-term key concerns include the implementation of anti-involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of overseas interest rate cuts [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization increased by 2.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 3.43 pct, and rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons [1][9]. - Petroleum asphalt: Operating rate increased by 6.8 pct [9]. - Chemical industry: PX operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, while PTA increased by 6.87 pct [1][9]. - Automobile tires: Full-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.81 pct, and semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 5.99 pct [1][10]. Demand - Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio declined, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate continued to rise [1][13]. - Movie box office: Decreased by 492 million yuan compared to the previous week [1][13]. - Automobile: Daily average retail sales of manufacturers decreased by 52,000 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles [1][17]. - Shipping index: SCFI decreased by 3.21%, CCFI decreased by 2.07%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 7.43% [1][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price rose by 2.27% to $66.99 per barrel, and coking coal futures price increased by 0.89% to 1,137.5 yuan per ton [2][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.72%, +3.78%, and +3.45% respectively, while domestic rebar futures price fell by 0.61% [2][22]. - Agricultural products: Overall price continued the seasonal upward trend, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rising by 0.32%, and the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +0.20%, +2.85%, -1.17%, and -2.74% respectively compared to the previous week [2][24]. Logistics - Subway passenger volume: Increased in both Beijing and Shanghai [2][27]. - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume continued to decrease, while international flight volume stabilized and slightly increased [2][28]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities rebounded significantly [2][28].