2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略周报 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《美国降息周期中的"第四种"交易模式——策略 专题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-08-14 《美元寻锚之路：去杠杆，减敞口，再平衡*胡国 鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-06-22 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、美国货币政策展望；2、日本货币政 策展望；3、海外流动性变化对美元资产、人民币资产和港股的影响。 核心结论: 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 | 1、 | 美国货币政策展望 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1、 | 美国就业和通胀现状与展望 4 | | | 1.2、 | 美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the central repurchase rates of major tenors moving down. The LPR quotes remained unchanged in November. The stock index rebounded, and it is expected that market differences will be gradually digested through index fluctuations this year. In the short term, the index will mainly operate in a volatile manner, and the downside risk is expected to be controllable. Short - term attention can be paid to overseas liquidity change signals and whether domestic policies will take effect in advance [4][6] Summary by Relevant Content Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 0.05bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a - 1.62bp change, GC001 at 1.42 with a 0.00bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a - 2.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.00bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34 with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.55 with a 1.30bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.30bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.04 with a - 2.00bp change [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. 4075 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [3] Stock Index Data - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, up 0.95%; the SSE 50 at 2968, up 0.60%; the CSI 500 at 6954.6, up 1.25%; the CSI 1000 at 7249.9, up 1.31%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 18121 billion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with education, gaming, precious metals and others leading the gains, while the shipbuilding sector fell sharply [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For the IF contract, the closing price was 4473, up 0.9%, the trading volume was 108933 with a - 4.2% change, and the open interest was 264574 with a - 1.5% change; for the IH contract, the closing price was 2959, up 0.5%, the trading volume was 43866 with a - 2.0% change, and the open interest was 88482 with a - 1.1% change; for the IC contract, the closing price was 6900, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 134717 with a 2.1% change, and the open interest was 258131 with a 2.1% change; for the IM contract, the closing price was 7172, up 1.1%, the trading volume was 213192 with a - 4.8% change, and the open interest was 367936 with a - 2.5% change [5] Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 5.89%, the next - month contract was 5.19%, the current - quarter contract was 3.28%, and the next - quarter contract was 3.58% - **IH Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 4.61%, the next - month contract was 3.31%, the current - quarter contract was 1.52%, and the next - quarter contract was 1.37% - **IC Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 11.94%, the next - month contract was 10.90%, the current - quarter contract was 9.98%, and the next - quarter contract was 10.80% - **IM Premium and Discount**: The current - month contract was 16.35%, the next - month contract was 14.19%, the current - quarter contract was 12.96%, and the next - quarter contract was 12.81% [7]