证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 | 证券分析师： | 吴信坤 | 021-61761046 | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525120001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨锦 | | yangjin1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980526020001 | 策略快评 局部战争期间大类资产表现如何？ 策略研究·策略快评 近期中东地缘政治局势变化是市场关注的焦点。据新华社消息，2026 年 2 月 28 日，以色列宣布袭击伊朗。 随后美国总统特朗普称，美军已经开始对伊朗进行军事打击。地缘局势恶化往往会影响全球风险偏好，从 而对大类资产走势形成扰动。我们回顾了 2000 年以来较为典型的国际局部战争/冲突，观察战争/冲突发 生后全球大类资产表现如何？ 国际局部战争/冲突发生初期，权益资产被拖累，而美元和商品表现较优。2000 年以来共有 12 次较为典型 的国际局部战争/冲突，在事件发生的初期（发生一周内），全球权益资产在短期内被拖累，其中标普 500 涨幅中位数为-0.2%、上涨 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | S0980523070001 S0980524090003 "暴走"的汇率。春节前后，人民币汇率显著走强，特别是节后日均升 幅一度达到 239 个基点，在短短几天内连续跌破 6.85、6.80 等关键心 理关口。从原因来看，春节错位所带来的结汇需求在近期集中爆发。2026 年 1、2 月份的工作日分布不均，导致大量本该分散在年初的报关和结 汇需求，在 2 月下旬集中爆发。同时，过去 2-3 年，由于各种因素，约 有 1 万亿美元的出口创汇资金留存在海外账户。人民币汇率短时间内的 快速上涨，触发了这部分巨量资金的"避险式结汇"，形成了所谓的"羊 群效应"。此外，金融机构在处理企业的结汇套保业务时，往往处于汇 率空头地位。随着升值预期转强，机构为了对冲风险，必须在即期市场 回补人民币，这进一步放 ...

交易台 – 高盛中国市场综述 上证综指+0.39% 科创50+0.15% 上证500+0.14% 创业板指数 -1.04% 沪深300 -0.34%中证500 +1.18% A股总成交额(万亿元人民币) 2.51 今天早盘中国市场表现平淡，但zz局会议通稿发布后，午盘出现走强态势。 关于zz局会议：会议要求增强宏观政策的前瞻性和针对性，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货 交易台 – 高盛中国市场综述 上证综指+0.39% 科创50+0.15% 上证500+0.14% 创业板指数 -1.04% 沪深300 -0.34%中证500 +1.18% A股总成交额(万亿元人民币) 2.51 关于zz局会议：会议要求增强宏观政策的前瞻性和针对性，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，着力稳 就业，稳企业，稳市场，稳预期。 板块层面，证券板块午盘一度走高反映市场对会议精神的积极解读，但上涨动能未能持续。 全日来看金属板块延续强势表现，全线上涨超3%。 下跌方面，受人工智能板块担忧情绪影响，IGBT，CPO及半导体板块全线下挫。 资金流向：春节后首周交投活跃度显著提升，名义交易量较节前增长30%。 我们在信息技术板块呈现显著 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic and overseas macro - environment in China remains stable. Domestically, the approaching "Two Sessions" brings positive policy expectations that strongly support the market. Overseas, the planned visit of Trump from March 31 to April 2 and the potential Sino - US summit reduce the short - term possibility of trade risks. The risk preference of the equity market is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to continue holding long - term long positions in stock index futures [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 1.71bp from the previous value; DR007 closed at 1.48, down 2.31bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.55, unchanged; GC007 closed at 1.59, down 0.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.57, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, down 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79, down 2.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.05, up 1.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 320.5 billion yuan. With 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 79.5 billion yuan [3] - In February, the LPR rate remained unchanged: the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. During the week after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24 - 28), 2.2524 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on February 25 [4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4727, down 0.19%; IF current - month contract closed at 4712, down 0.4% [5] - The SSE 50 closed at 3035, down 0.65%; IH current - month contract closed at 3035, down 0.8% [5] - The CSI 500 closed at 8557, up 0.35%; IC current - month contract closed at 8537, up 0.1% [5] - The CSI 1000 closed at 8491, up 0.76%; IM current - month contract closed at 8443, up 0.4% [5] - The trading volume of IF was 85,824, down 19.3%; the open interest was 269,977, down 4.7% [5] - The trading volume of IH was 42,698, down 19.0%; the open interest was 105,405, down 3.3% [5] - The trading volume of IC was 114,851, down 9.6%; the open interest was 290,740, down 2.6% [5] - The trading volume of IM was 145,580, down 12.6%; the open interest was 357,540, down 4.0% [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.5568 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with electronic components, wind power equipment, communication equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and power grid equipment sectors leading the gains, while film and television theaters, rare earths, insurance, and real estate development sectors leading the losses [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.15%, 3.13%, 3.80%, and 4.24% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.26%, - 0.32%, 0.43%, and 2.23% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.84%, 3.60%, 4.90%, and 5.42% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.23%, 7.95%, 8.76%, and 8.78% respectively [7]

从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列同类首位，是第二名的三倍多，更多 人选择中证A500ETF（159338），感兴趣的投资者或可关注中证A500ETF（159338）。 招商证券指出，历史上两会前后A股存在一定日历效应，这主要受益于市场对两会稳增长政策和产业政 策的预期，且融资资金交易活跃。行业表现层面，两会前后基础化工、有色金属、建筑材料等顺周期行 业表现突出，上涨概率较高。随着两会结束，稳增长政策逐渐落地，顺周期板块上涨概率更高且平均收 益相对也较高。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相较沪深300而言，中证A500强调行业均衡与细分龙头，其风格更分散、成长性暴露更高，能在产业结 构升级周期提供更优的Beta底盘。所以，其指数历史走势更优。截至2025年末，中证A500指数基日以 来涨幅高达464.28%，而同期沪深300指数为361.15%，超额为103.13%。 ...

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.38 with a 1.66 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 4.79 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.55 with a 15.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.59 with a 3.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.02 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.77 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.55 with a 1.29 bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.42 bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.04 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 95 billion yuan [4] - In February, the LPR rates remained unchanged: 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. From February 24th - 28th, 22524 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 14524 billion, 4000 billion, and 4000 billion maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. Also, on February 25th, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4735.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 3054.9, the CSI 500 rose 1.6% to 8527.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.52% to 8426.3. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 24812 billion yuan, an increase of 2628 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with rare earths, small metals, energy metals, real estate services, steel, non - ferrous metals, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the gains, while the film and television theater and advertising marketing sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 106320 with an 8.7% increase, IF open interest was 283440 with a 6.9% increase; IH volume was 52712 with a 24.8% increase, IH open interest was 108963 with a 9.6% increase; IC volume was 126978 with a 3.0% increase, IC open interest was 298578 with a 5.7% increase; IM volume was 166542 with a 2.9% decrease, IM open interest was 372430 with a 1.9% increase [6] - The IF basis for the current - month contract was 1.50%, next - month 1.34%, current - quarter 2.67%, and next - quarter 3.60%; the IH basis was - 1.70%, - 1.00%, 0.16%, and 2.08% respectively; the IC basis was - 0.27%, 1.07%, 3.39%, and 4.40% respectively; the IM basis was 3.90%, 4.43%, 6.80%, and 7.56% respectively [8] Group 3: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - Shanghai launched post - holiday real - estate regulatory optimization measures, shortening the social security or tax payment period for non - local residents to buy houses in the inner - ring area to 1 year, increasing the maximum first - home provident fund loan limit from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and further increasing it to 3.24 million yuan for multi - child families or those buying green buildings.沪籍 families buying their only new home are exempt from property tax [7] - Driven by favorable policies, the stock index is running strongly. With the expected policy benefits from the upcoming "Two Sessions", the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly. Long - term and medium - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [7]

CENTRAL TV TOWER 中央电视塔 I I B ■ ■ ■ 大年初三的，给各位拜年啦。 祝你们策马扬鞭，一马当先，马跃千里，马到成功。 1.本金：工具的主体，也是工具服务的对象。 每个人攒下100元，很容易。出去跑一会外卖，哪怕你骑个自行车，一天也够了。 1000元，略难，十天吧。 10000元，普通人踮踮脚尖没啥大问题，个把月的时间。 100000元，从普通到不普通的过渡阶段，得用劲跳起来才可能够得到，时间不好算，慢的五年十年都没准。 再多，就差不多上道，用不着咱操心了。 2.财务体检表：人生两大报表，资产负债表和收支表/现金流量表。 可以自己列Excel。 刚开始粗糙一点没关系，网上看看大神的，结合个人情况，慢慢借鉴优化。 这个世界很复杂，也可以简单到一张表格里。 做得多了、年头长了，就可以进阶尝试更难的。 比如，家庭保险单、股票定投、现金流复利等。 3.支付宝：存钱放余额宝，自动记账，在"账单"里面。 其实也可以用微信记账本，完全看个人习惯。 关键是尽可能只用一个app支付，会更方便。 偶尔极少情况下的其他渠道收支，及时手动记账补充。 如此为上面的收支表奠定基础，进而在年终时汇总出资产负债这第 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, it is expected that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly before the Spring Festival, accumulating strength for further upward movement [6] - In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and the economy is in the process of bottom - building. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue [6] - The strategy is to continue to hold long positions in stock indices for the medium - to - long - term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Market Review - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment on the day was 38 billion yuan [4] - This week, 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will also mature on Friday [4] 3.2 Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.27 | - 0.24 | | DR007 | 1.54 | 7.68 | | GC001 | 1.57 | 28.50 | | GC007 | 1.66 | 6.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.31 | - 0.50 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.55 | - 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.79 | - 0.85 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 1.00 | 0.00 | [4] 3.3 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 1.63% to 4719.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.45% to 3081.8, the CSI 500 rose 2.02% to 8311.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.26% to 8233.8 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the mining and gas sectors falling [5] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4719 | 1.63 | - | - | | IF Current Month | 4723 | 1.8 | - 23.3 | - 1.9 | | SSE 50 | 3082 | 1.45 | - | - | | IH Current Month | 3084 | 1.5 | - 25.8 | - 5.2 | | CSI 500 | 8311 | 2.02 | - | - | | IC Current Month | 8322 | 2.2 | - 31.3 | - 3.7 | | CSI 1000 | 8234 | 2.26 | - | - | | IM Current Month | 8256 | 29 | - 23.0 | - 4.2 | [5] 3.5 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | - 2.49% | - 0.43% | 1.66% | 2.86% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 1.96% | - 0.67% | 0.25% | 1.80% | | IC Premium/Discount | - 4.28% | - 0.04% | 3.25% | 4.29% | | IM Premium/Discount | - 8.96% | 0.13% | 5.82% | 6.89% | [7]