Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a new wealth cycle in the capital market may have begun, driven by recent employment data in the U.S. that fell short of expectations, leading to a significant market reaction [2][3]. Market Reaction - The U.S. non-farm payroll data was released, showing employment figures that were significantly lower than market expectations, with previous data revised down by 90%, causing a collapse in confidence regarding the U.S. economy [3][6]. - Global stock markets experienced a collective plunge, with European markets dropping over 2%, and the U.S. markets seeing the Dow Jones down over 600 points, the Nasdaq down over 2%, and the S&P 500 down over 1.6% [4][6]. Employment Data Analysis - The article highlights that since 2023, the U.S. has been revising previously reported employment data downward each month, indicating that the actual employment situation has been poor, contrary to earlier reports [8][10]. - Notably, the revisions for June's job additions were adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and for May from 125,000 to 19,000, suggesting that only 10% of the reported data was accurate, with 90% being inflated [11][12]. Capital Market Dynamics - The article posits that the recent downward revisions in employment data will expose the underlying economic weakness in the U.S., prompting a swift market reaction characterized by panic [13][14]. - As a result, dollar-denominated assets and related currencies experienced significant declines, while safe-haven assets like gold saw a rapid increase in value [15][16]. Divergence in Markets - Despite the global panic triggered by the U.S. employment data, the Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong markets showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 23 points and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 225 points [17][18]. - The article attributes this divergence to the Chinese capital market's positioning against dollar assets, suggesting that it is prepared to decouple from U.S. economic policies [19][20]. Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current market trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations for at least one cut by the end of the year [28][37]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from 39% to 77%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations [38]. Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to consider reallocating their assets away from dollar-denominated investments, as a potential rate cut could trigger a major shift in capital flows towards non-dollar assets, including gold and markets that have decoupled from the dollar [46][47]. - It emphasizes the importance of acting quickly to capitalize on this potential wealth transfer opportunity before the Federal Reserve's decisions are made [46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar indicates a positive trend in the currency's valuation, with the onshore and offshore RMB both recovering above the 7.2 mark, reflecting an appreciation since the beginning of the year [1][4]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 23, the central parity rate of RMB against USD was set at 7.1414, an increase of 46 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since November 5, 2024 [1]. - On the same day, the onshore RMB was reported at 7.1605, up 151 basis points, while the offshore RMB hovered around 7.15890, rising over 1100 basis points [1]. Market Stability and Expectations - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, which has helped stabilize the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4]. - The foreign exchange market has shown stable expectations, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated for the RMB [4]. Economic Factors Influencing RMB - The RMB's stability is supported by several factors: domestic economic recovery, narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, balanced international payments, and improved resilience in the foreign exchange market [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, maintaining a clear stance on the importance of market-driven exchange rate formation [5]. Capital Inflows and Foreign Investment - The capital market is witnessing a resurgence, with significant foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which has seen transaction volumes exceed previous levels [7]. - Foreign investors are expected to continue increasing their allocation to RMB-denominated assets, supported by China's economic fundamentals and the demand for diversified global asset allocation [7]. Global Currency Trends - The US dollar's dominance is declining, with a significant drop in its share of global foreign exchange reserves, while the RMB is increasingly viewed as a desirable reserve asset by central banks [9]. - A report indicates that 30% of central banks plan to increase their RMB reserves over the next decade, suggesting a potential doubling of the RMB's share in global reserves to 6% [9]. Conclusion on RMB's International Position - The RMB has steadily risen in international status, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [10]. - Despite the challenges faced by the RMB, including limited capacity for currency export due to China's trade surplus, the trend towards a multipolar currency system is evident, with the RMB gaining traction as a viable alternative to the US dollar [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid achievement of yield targets for dollar-denominated financial products has led to early terminations, while institutions are aggressively expanding their presence in the dollar wealth management market despite declining yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The number of newly issued dollar-denominated financial products reached 161 in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.97% [1][2]. - The issuance of dollar wealth management products is expected to remain high in July 2025, with 68 products already launched by mid-month [2]. - The average annualized yield for dollar wealth management products has been declining, with June 2025 showing significant year-on-year decreases compared to June 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Institutional Interest - Institutions are seeking strategies to enhance yield, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and opportunities in U.S. Treasury investments [3][4]. - The demand for dollar-denominated assets is rising due to global economic uncertainties, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, making dollar assets attractive for their liquidity and safe-haven status [3][4]. Group 3: Yield Decline Factors - The decline in dollar wealth management yields is attributed to fluctuations in dollar asset prices, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index experiencing a nearly 11% drop in the first half of 2025, the largest decline for that period since 1973 [4][5]. - Policies from the Trump administration, including tariffs and economic measures, have contributed to the rapid depreciation of the dollar, affecting market confidence [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on fixed-income asset allocations to balance risks and returns, while also implementing measures to hedge against currency risks [6][8]. - Different types of dollar wealth management products are available, including those focused on dollar deposits, U.S. Treasury bonds, and overseas equities, each catering to varying risk appetites [7][8]. - Investors should consider product characteristics, such as stop-loss mechanisms, and be cautious of market noise when making investment decisions [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability in the market) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight, the US PPI was lower than expected, and news that Trump intended to fire Fed Chairman Powell caused the US dollar assets to decline and international gold prices to rise. However, after Trump's denial, the market returned to stability. Driven by events, precious metals are sensitive. There is still room for negotiations before the deadline of the US tariff policy, and risk sentiment may fluctuate. Precious metals will mainly fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales data tonight [1]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Data - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said that the Fed's actions are "very very slow" and inflation data has been performing well [2]. - The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7% [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity decreased slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious [2]. 3.2 Tariff Policies - Canada will tighten steel quotas for some foreign countries [2]. - Trump will send general tariff rate notices to more than 150 small countries and may impose a 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries [2].

Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the U.S. and China, including aspects of debt, currency, and market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. government is facing a $4 trillion debt ceiling, which may lead to increased public spending and dissatisfaction among stakeholders regarding tax cuts for businesses and individuals [1] 2. The U.S. dollar index is currently at 90.2, with predictions of further decline due to ongoing supply chain issues and potential adjustments to the debt ceiling [2] 3. China has strategically reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from a peak of approximately $1.2 trillion in 2018 to around $700 billion, indicating a shift in its financial strategy post-trade war [3] 4. China's economic policies have shifted since September 2022, focusing on fiscal expansion and stabilizing the economy, contrasting with previous periods of policy uncertainty [4] 5. The stability of the Chinese stock market is noted, with government bonds trading around 1.7% and stock indices fluctuating around 3.3%, reflecting a cautious but stable economic outlook [5] 6. The current low price levels in China may facilitate monetary easing, which could help stimulate economic recovery, while the U.S. faces challenges in this regard [6] 7. China's stock market is characterized by a relatively high debt-to-GDP ratio compared to other major economies, indicating a unique financial position [7] 8. The potential for a technological revolution is highlighted, with both the U.S. and China expected to leverage their respective strengths in R&D and market application over the next decade [8] 9. The outlook for the next 6 to 12 months suggests a continuation of the current bull market, with limited upward movement in indices due to strategic market stabilization efforts [9] 10. Companies are increasingly focused on cash management and financial stability, with a notable emphasis on sectors such as transportation and infrastructure [10] 11. The report concludes with a focus on the advantages of Chinese companies in terms of market timing and strategic positioning amid global risks [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The notes emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay between U.S. and Chinese economic policies and their implications for global markets, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [2][3][4][5][6][8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on strategic resources like rare earth elements and the implications for the financial markets. Core Points and Arguments - President Trump's recent comments on China's negotiation stance indicate significant difficulties in reaching a trade agreement, which has led to a slight pullback in U.S. stock index futures [1] - The U.S. may be hesitant to take strong actions against China due to potential negative impacts on its own dollar assets, suggesting that aggressive measures could backfire [2] - The U.S. Treasury's intervention in the market reflects underlying troubles, with short-term U.S. Treasury bonds receiving some support, while medium to long-term bonds face considerable pressure [3] - Internal divisions within the U.S. Congress regarding certain policies are highlighted, with notable opposition from influential figures like Elon Musk, indicating intense internal conflicts [4] - The discussion includes the "see-saw effect" of dollar assets, with gold and strategic resources like rare earths gaining attention amid market fluctuations [5] - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, shows slight upward movement, while overall market activity remains subdued, as indicated by trading volumes in the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets [6] - There are expectations for potential central bank interventions to support market liquidity, although this optimism may be overly optimistic given the current pressures in the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment suggests a need to remain patient and vigilant for better investment opportunities in strategic resources and gold amidst rapid market changes [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of rare earth elements as a key topic in U.S.-China tensions emphasizes their strategic importance in the current geopolitical landscape [5] - The potential for a liquidity crisis in the bond market is noted, which could have broader implications for financial stability [7] - The overall market environment is characterized by rapid shifts in focus and wealth effects, necessitating a strategic approach to investment opportunities [8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. financial market** and its implications for both domestic and international markets, particularly focusing on the **debt issues** and **economic policies** of the U.S. government [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Market Concerns**: There is an increasing sense of doubt regarding the U.S. stock market, which may face a significant downward adjustment in the near future. This is highlighted by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating from AAA, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets [1][4]. 2. **Debt Management Strategies**: The U.S. government is exploring various strategies to manage its debt, including potential new taxes such as an international remittance tax. These measures aim to alleviate the financial strain caused by excessive spending [2][4]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: There are signs of economic deterioration, with consumer sentiment and various indices showing downward trends. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing trade tensions and tax adjustments [3][4]. 4. **Investment Sentiment**: Investors are strategically reducing their holdings in U.S. assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, due to short-term financial issues. While U.S. assets may have long-term potential, the current financial landscape poses significant risks [5][11]. 5. **Gold Market Dynamics**: The price of gold has seen a significant drop to $3,200 per ounce, leading to speculation about whether the bull market for gold has ended. However, there are indications that this may present a strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors [6][8]. 6. **Domestic Market Outlook**: The domestic market is described as lackluster, with few standout sectors. The port and shipping sector, linked to tariffs, is currently experiencing high demand, but overall market excitement is low [9][10]. 7. **Macroeconomic Data**: Upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including consumer and real estate metrics, are expected to show little improvement, contributing to a subdued market sentiment [10][11]. Other Important Insights - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly, reaching levels not seen since late 2024, which raises concerns about potential corrections if the market faces further challenges [5][11]. - The Hong Kong market is also experiencing a similar lack of momentum, with limited upward potential despite being in a slightly better position than the domestic market [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the U.S. market's challenges, investment strategies, and the overall economic outlook.

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The current trading volume in the market is a critical indicator reflecting market sentiment, with a significant drop noted in Hong Kong compared to mainland markets, indicating a more severe liquidity issue in Hong Kong [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is declining, with the three major indices experiencing slight declines under pressure [1] Key Points and Arguments - The trading volume in Hong Kong has shown a more pronounced contraction, suggesting deeper issues beyond simple market fluctuations, with risks highlighted previously [1] - The recent downturn in the Hong Kong market has been attributed to a lack of recovery in investor enthusiasm, particularly as the market was previously buoyed by inflows from mainland investors [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden rebound, attributed to some progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and Europe, but skepticism remains regarding the sustainability of this recovery [3] - The U.S. economic policies under the current administration are described as conflicting, with internal and external pressures creating a challenging environment for financial markets [4][5] - The U.S. government is facing significant fiscal challenges, with efforts to cut unnecessary spending being undermined by political dynamics, leading to a precarious financial situation [5] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels and the potential for a loss of confidence in U.S. assets, particularly if credit ratings are downgraded [6] - The technology sector in the U.S. stock market appears unaffected by broader market issues, with the Nasdaq index nearing previous highs, raising concerns about market stability [7] - The potential for increased fiscal pressure in the U.S. could lead to further challenges for asset prices, with questions about investor willingness to buy at current levels [8] Other Important Insights - The current optimism in the U.S. dollar assets may be overly optimistic given the underlying issues facing the financial markets, particularly as resistance levels are approached [8] - Future market volatility is anticipated, with significant uncertainties that could impact upward support levels [9]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury and Gold Outlook - U.S. Treasuries have lost their value storage function, with gold set to replace them as the primary global currency [1] - The report predicts that the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield will have a lower bound of 4.35%, with a target yield of 4.9%-5.2% by 2025, suggesting avoidance of Treasuries [1][39] - The target price for gold is set at $3,500 per ounce, with a potential rise to $4,400 per ounce if gold's market value matches that of U.S. Treasuries [1][70] Group 2: Long-term Bull Market in U.S. Stocks - The long-term bull market in U.S. stocks is driven by monetary factors, including a persistent capital account surplus due to the U.S. current account deficit [2] - U.S. companies have been in a long-term net buyback state since the 1980s, reducing the supply of stocks and contributing to rising prices [2] - Fiscal expansion leads to more government orders, higher inflation, and increased profit margins, benefiting U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Short-term Economic Risks - The report highlights risks to short-term economic growth, with tariffs impacting consumer purchasing power and a decline in consumer credit indicating potential recession [3] - The target price for the S&P 500 is estimated to be between 4,300 and 5,600 points by the second half of 2025, leading to a downgrade of the investment rating for U.S. stocks to "underperform" [3][48] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Sector Selection - The report suggests focusing on quality factors and defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples during the upcoming risk-off phase [4] - For bottom-fishing opportunities, the report recommends sectors like Philadelphia Semiconductor, Nasdaq 100, and small-cap growth stocks [4]