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Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, dropping over 1% [1] - Software stocks faced substantial declines, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) falling by 2.55%, and notable companies like ServiceNow and Salesforce dropping over 5% and 4% respectively [1] - Concerns regarding the impact of AI on the software industry are growing, potentially affecting valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market also faced heavy selling, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $66,000, a decline of over 4%, and Ethereum and SOL falling more than 3% [1] - In the last 24 hours, 144,691 individuals were liquidated, totaling $458 million in liquidations [1] Economic Indicators - US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding indicated that the Fed should maintain rates at a "slightly restrictive" level due to ongoing inflation concerns [1] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets, plans to reduce exposure to US dollar assets and shift towards European and emerging markets [2][3] - CEO Valerie Baudson warned that without changes in US economic policy, the dollar is likely to weaken [3] Investment Diversification - Amundi has been advocating for investment diversification over the past 12 to 15 months, suggesting clients reduce their dollar asset holdings [3] - The firm reported a record net inflow of €88 billion and announced a €5 billion stock buyback plan [3] Capital Flow Trends - International investors are increasingly moving funds to international markets, with a net inflow of $51.6 billion into international stock ETFs in January [5] - This shift is attributed to high valuations in the US stock market, a weakening dollar, and new opportunities in overseas markets [5] Economic Growth Projections - Amundi forecasts a significant slowdown in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2026, down from nearly 3% in 2023-2024 [5] - The slowdown is driven by structural factors, including diminished private demand, decreasing marginal utility of fiscal stimulus, and policy uncertainty [6] Dollar Asset Dynamics - The dual advantages of dollar assets—growth and yield—are diminishing, with the correlation between the dollar and US equities/bonds reversing [6] - The dollar is no longer acting as a stabilizer in investment portfolios but is instead amplifying volatility [7] Industry Responses - Other large asset management firms, including PIMCO and Wellington Management, are echoing Amundi's call to reduce US asset exposure [7] - Investment strategies are shifting towards currencies like the euro and Australian dollar, with increased positions in emerging markets [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, with major indices collectively closing lower after an initial rise. The Nasdaq index saw a drop of nearly 1%, while the Russell 2000 index fell over 1%. Software stocks were particularly affected, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) declining by 2.55%, ServiceNow dropping over 5%, and Salesforce falling more than 4%. Analysts on Wall Street have raised concerns about the impact of AI on the software industry, suggesting that AI-driven workflows may erode the industry's valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a severe sell-off, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $66,000, experiencing a drop of over 4% before narrowing its losses to 1.74%. Ethereum and SOL also saw declines exceeding 3%. In the last 24 hours, 144,691 individuals were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $458 million. The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets, announced plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets and shift focus towards European and emerging markets. CEO Valerie Baudson indicated that if U.S. economic policies do not change, the dollar is likely to weaken further. The firm has been advocating for investment diversification over the past 12 to 15 months [3][4] Investment Shifts - Recent data shows that Wall Street investors are accelerating their shift towards international markets, with a net inflow of $51.6 billion (approximately ¥356.7 billion) into international stock ETFs in January. This trend is attributed to high valuations in the U.S. stock market, a weakening dollar, and new opportunities in overseas markets. Amundi predicts that U.S. real GDP growth will slow significantly to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors rather than cyclical adjustments [6] Dollar Asset Concerns - The dual advantages of U.S. dollar assets—growth and yield—are diminishing. Concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability have led to a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds. Historically, when U.S. stocks declined, the dollar would typically strengthen due to its safe-haven status. However, current trends show that the dollar is moving in tandem with risk assets, indicating it is no longer a stabilizer but rather a volatility amplifier [7]

2.4万亿欧元资管巨头"叛逃"美元资产，美国国债的信仰崩塌了？而中国也对银行表态，要求其注意美 国国债的风险。 特朗普把美元玩崩了？ 就在今年2月初，全球金融圈被一条新闻刷屏了。欧洲最大的资产管理机构，法国东方汇理资产管理公 司宣布，自己正在大幅度减少对美元年资产的投资，并表示未来1年内将会继续坚持美元资产，投资重 点转向欧洲和新兴市场。 要知道东方汇理是欧洲的老牌资产管理巨头，投资一向以稳健来著称。现在的国际环境下，不买美元， 难道还要去买欧元？ 东方汇理也给出了自己的答案，美元资产长期拥有的优势正在逐渐消失。增长优势源于美国经济相对其 他发达经济体的强劲表现，而息差优势则来自美联储维持较高利率所产生的利差吸引。 然而，这两大支柱在2026年都面临着前所未有的挑战。 曾经被视为"无风险资产"标杆的美国国债，为什么惨遭投资者抛售？中国为什么开始对美债的安全性 和波动性忧心忡忡？ 今天那我们就来谈谈这些话题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 美国国债为什么不靠谱了 长期以来，美国国债被全球投资者视为"无风险资产"的锚点。什么意思呢？全球金融市场的几乎所有 资产定价，都以美债收益率为基准。 你买股票、买债券、买理 ...

本文首发于"见闻VIP"作者乐鸣，为见闻付费会员文章，现作为粉丝福利免费试读，欢迎点击阅读原文订阅"见闻VIP"。 欧洲最大资产管理公司、管理资产规模达2.8万亿欧元 （约23万亿元） 的法国东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）发出了一个震耳欲聋的信号： 逃离美元资产。 该公司正在 减少对美元资产的投资 ，将 投资重心转向欧洲和新兴市场。 且警告称，如果美国经济政策维持现状，美元将继续走弱。 作为典型的稳健型机构投资者，东方汇理通常不会进行激进的资产配置调整。 此次公开宣布减少美元敞口，并将重心转向欧洲和新兴市场，其背后的深层逻辑究竟是什么？ 东方汇理的角度 首先，我们需要从东方汇理的角度来看这一个问题。 东方汇理作为稳健型投资者， 最厌恶的是不可量化的尾部风险和资产相关性的失效 ，而2026年的美国市场，恰恰呈现出这两种特征的危险趋同。 长期以来，美国国债被视为全球无风险资产的锚，而美元则是对冲地缘政治风险的终极避风港。 然而，东方汇理的首席投资官Vincent Mortier及其研究团队的分析表明，这一假设正在发生质变。 根据东方汇理的预测，2026年美国实际GDP增速将显著放缓至1.6%，远低于2023 ...

美联储新掌门上任了，是更具专业色彩和略偏鹰派的凯文·沃什，而不是特朗普的办公室主任凯文·哈塞特。 可以预见，2026年美联储降息将继续稳定2-3 次，而不会如特朗普想要的那般快，而美联储降息次数，会带动外贸汇率的变动。 元旦后人民币悄悄"破 7"，这只是开始。 2026年人民币汇率走强的核心 驱动力，在于美联储货币政策周期的历史性转向。"东升西降"的货币汇率，使得美元资产越来越不值钱，国际资本将加速流向更具增值潜力的人民币资产。 意外因素： 1、美国最高法院如何裁定川普"对等关税"，为汇率增添短期不可预测性； 2、爆发新战争，或南美/中东/俄乌战争外溢，外资流入美元避险，美 元升值； 3、人民币兑欧元双向波动、温和贬值，走势更复杂胶着，都受美元深刻影响。 2025年，在关税杀威棒之下，中国外贸展现出强大韧性。2025年前11个月进出口总值突破7.5万亿美元，贸易顺差规模达到创纪录的1.02万亿美元，这也是首 次破万亿，相当于德国全年GDP的五分之一。 2026年，市场预期这个顺差越拉越大，将会带动持汇观望的企业，加紧结汇，也带动了人民币升值。 值得注意的是，人民币国际化进程也在加速推进。截至2025年底，人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, with London spot gold dropping over $1000 per ounce from its January 29 high, indicates a period of high volatility, and experts suggest that investors should refrain from bottom-fishing until market fluctuations stabilize [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that gold will experience substantial short-term fluctuations, and it is advisable for investors to wait for reduced volatility before considering investments in gold ETFs, which are viewed as more stable compared to gold mining stocks [1][4][5]. - The important support level for gold prices is estimated to be between $4300 and $4500 per ounce, and the fundamental factors supporting gold prices, such as a weak dollar and declining trust in U.S. Treasury and dollar assets, remain intact [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on gold ETFs as a more reliable option compared to gold mining stocks, especially in the current environment of extreme volatility where gold is exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset [3][7]. - The upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman may lead to shifts in monetary policy that could impact gold pricing and long-term asset allocation strategies [3][7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions suggest that gold prices may fluctuate around a central point of $5000 per ounce, with potential movements within a $1000 range, driven primarily by ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [6].

全球最大主动固定收益管理机构之一PIMCO（品浩）近日发出警告，不仅外国投资者长期享受的"美债 收益+美元对冲"的"免费午餐"时代已经结束，全球央行与机构投资者也正重新评估对美元资产的过度集 中。PIMCO建议投资者在新的周期坐标系下，将现金头寸转向高质量债券，并关注价值股与大宗商品 的配置机会。 据彭博报道，PIMCO在领英发文中指出，数十年来，外国投资者一方面享受美国国债的诱人收益率， 另一方面利用美元作为天然的股票对冲工具，但随着美元持续贬值，这一策略已不再奏效。对冲美国固 定收益资产现在往往会锁定负收益率，这使得美国以外的本土债券市场对海外投资者而言更具吸引力。 PIMCO强调，这一转变具有"深远的影响"。各国央行和机构投资者正在重新评估其投资组合中的美元 集中度，寻找在不损害审慎风险管理前提下的替代方案。目前的美国经常账户数据显示，尽管股票资金 流入依然强劲，但在固定收益领域的配置已变得日益挑剔。 告别"免费午餐"与美元集中度重估 在展望2026年市场时，PIMCO进一步指出，随着利率下滑，持有过多现金的投资者将面临再投资风 险。该机构建议利用全球债券市场与股票的传统负相关性，将现金转向高质量债券以 ...

很多人提起特朗普，第一反应就是关税、制裁、军力、狠话，觉得他总是拿大棒威慑四方。但如果你把美国这套体系拆开来看，会发现一个更深层次、甚至 更致命的因素：美债。美国最强的，往往不是能打，而是能借钱。它能以极低的成本向全球借到巨额资金，用来支撑军费、补贴、科技投入和盟友体系，这 才是美国长期维持霸权的发动机。所以，特朗普的软肋，往往不在战场，而是在金融市场。只要美债出问题，美国的基础就会动摇。 那么，黄金和白银为何是危险的信号？它们代表着逃离纸面信用的趋势。为什么说一旦资本将美债换成黄金、白银，金银价格一涨，特朗普就感到了危险？ 黄金的上涨有两种逻辑：一种是正常的避险需求，世界不太平，资金流入避险资产，黄金价格上涨，这在全球金融体系中非常常见。另一种则是信心的转 移：全球资本开始怀疑美元资产的价值，将一部分储备资金从纸信用转向硬资产。美国真正敏感的，是第二种情况。因为这意味着一个长期的趋势：全球储 备资产结构的变化，美元资产的唯一性正在被削弱。黄金、白银的上涨本身或许无关紧要，但它背后隐藏着的一句话才是致命的——我不再完全相信你了。 为什么特朗普尤其害怕金融市场的失控？因为他是一个交易型总统。特朗普的行事风格就是 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is at 24.653 yuan per gram, down 1.71% from the opening price of 25.067 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 26.305 yuan and a low of 22.901 yuan, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is a focal point for the market, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%. There is renewed concern over the independence of the central bank due to investigations into Chairman Powell and pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is signaling easing, with strong demand for two-year Treasury auctions and a decline in yields, as the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.211%. Despite ongoing trade tensions and fiscal pressures, the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver has increased significantly [1] Group 2 - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.2%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 15.5%, with an 84.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged [2] - Technical analysis of silver indicates that after an initial price surge, it has dropped over 2%. The one-hour Bollinger Bands suggest a potential rebound, with decreasing downward momentum indicated by the MACD histogram. Support levels are noted between 21.00 and 22.50, while resistance is seen between 26.00 and 27.00 [3]