Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiarongli Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Initiation A (019987) reported a profit of 59,900 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0119 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 1.26% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.978 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 4.63%, ranking 539 out of 615 in its category [4]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 4.02%, ranking 512 out of 615, and the one-year growth rate was 9.63%, ranking 450 out of 584 [4]. - Since inception, the fund has maintained a high average stock position of 92.4%, compared to the category average of 83.13% [14]. Fund Management Insights - The fund manager, Yin Hang, oversees seven funds and anticipates that market sentiment will focus on the performance of A-share companies as they disclose their semi-annual reports [3]. - The manager believes that sectors with better-than-expected performance or sustained growth will attract short-term attention [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 20.86%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 16.34% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Erdos, New China Life Insurance, Gree Electric Appliances, China Shenhua Energy, Huayang Co., China Merchants Highway, Shangu Power, Chengdu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qilu Bank [19].

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in futures pricing is the basis, which is currently significantly misaligned, indicating that futures are undervalued compared to spot prices [6][12][46]. Group 1: Basis Analysis - The basis is derived from the relationship between futures and spot prices, influenced by supply and demand dynamics reflected in inventory levels [7][8]. - Different commodities have their own basis, and the Wenhua Commodity Index should also have a corresponding basis rate [9][10]. - In June, the Wenhua Index's basis rate reached nearly 4%, suggesting a substantial misalignment where futures are undervalued relative to spot prices [12]. Group 2: Inventory and Profit Dynamics - The direction of inventory changes will determine whether commodities will continue to deplete or not, which is linked to profit margins and operating rates [15]. - The non-ferrous sector shows minor contradictions, while the black and chemical sectors exhibit significant basis discrepancies, with futures prices lagging behind spot prices [17][20][23]. Group 3: Future Basis Reversion - The reversion of the 2509 contract basis will depend on the ongoing contradictions in overseas demand and upstream-downstream profit distribution [26][28]. - If upstream prices stabilize, it could lead to an overall increase in industrial products, causing futures prices to rise faster than spot prices, thus narrowing the basis [42][44]. Group 4: Research and Strategy Development - Understanding the basis is crucial for researchers and traders to differentiate between spot and futures logic, enabling effective arbitrage strategies [49][50]. - The basis serves as a fundamental principle for futures, and its analysis can lead to better insights into market dynamics and trading strategies [52].