1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict escalating and then cooling down. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have a driving effect on oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global interest rate hike expectations are rising. The Fed, BoE, BoJ, and ECB have different stances on interest rates, and the rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - China's domestic policies are pro - active, with economic growth targeted at 4.5% - 5%, and various fiscal measures are in place. The economic structure shows differentiation, with different performance in manufacturing, trade, consumption, and real estate [3]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There are anti - correlations between the non - energy and energy sectors, and different commodity sectors have different focuses [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - Israel conflict has led to damage to Qatar's LNG facilities. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and the situation has some uncertainties. The Iran situation mainly impacts crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices drive oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing inflation and recession concerns. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices and related sectors may rise further. Disruptions in Middle East natural gas supply may have a far - reaching impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1]. Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and Powell will not leave the council before the investigation ends and won't cut interest rates until inflation improves. The BoE maintains the interest rate, removes the "rate cut" wording, and is ready to act on inflation. The BoJ keeps the policy unchanged, and the ECB maintains the interest rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - China's 2026 government work report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan. Special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued, and 2500 billion yuan will be used for consumer goods replacement. In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. Exports and imports increased significantly. Consumption and industrial added value showed growth, while real estate investment and sales declined [3]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an anti - correlation between the non - energy and energy sectors. The IEA releases a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products. The EU simplifies gas import rules, Russia may cut off gas supply to Europe, and South Korea starts a resource security crisis warning. Black commodities focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. Key News - Trump claims to be negotiating with Iran, but all related information is released by the US. Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz and will take retaliatory measures if its power system is attacked. The US allows the sale of Iranian oil in transit. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 11.29%, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate due to tightened dollar liquidity [2][6]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting last week pushed the dollar stronger, putting pressure on commodities. Geopolitical tensions support energy - related varieties, but the market may be volatile in the short term [2]. - Precious metals may remain weak as central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure, and the market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year [2]. - The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure due to the high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations, but spot procurement provides some support [3]. - The black commodities sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term as terminal demand recovers, though steel mill profits limit the upside [3]. - Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances, and short - term oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - The chemical sector continues to be strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Some products like methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges [4]. - Agricultural products may experience increased volatility. Although they pulled back last week, biodiesel demand and supply uncertainties may affect prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 11.29%, non - ferrous metals and agricultural products fell 4.1% and 1.9% respectively, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: The top - gaining varieties were ethylene glycol, methanol, and asphalt, with increases of 13.2%, 11.66%, and 9% respectively. The top - losing varieties were silver, tin, and live pigs, with declines of 15.76%, 8.45%, and 8.34% [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market changed little last week, with most sectors showing a slight increase in volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased significantly last week, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure. The market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. International gold and silver show signs of breaking down, and the sector may remain weak [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the sector. However, spot procurement provides support as prices fall and downstream industries resume production, and high inventories may be at a turning point [3]. - **Black Commodities**: Terminal demand is recovering during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Steel production is increasing, and inventories are starting to decline. Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but steel mill profits limit further increases. Raw material prices are supported by factors such as geopolitical conflicts [3]. - **Energy**: Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is large. Strategic oil reserve releases are mainly for emergency, and future oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - **Chemical**: The sector remains strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges such as declining efficiency, low terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products pulled back last week due to global economic concerns. However, the value of biodiesel and supply uncertainties may lead to increased price volatility [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of around 8%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,186.22 billion yuan, with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume increased significantly [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.44% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 3.10% return, the non - ferrous metals ETF had a - 6.18% return, and the silver fund had a - 19.48% return [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the development policies of the mid - stream industries and provides an overview of the production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the "Industrial Data Foundation Building Action", selecting leading enterprises in key industries like steel to form alliances to promote tasks such as key data technology research, data standard development, high - quality dataset creation, and data application scenario implementation [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission introduced 13 new landmark major foreign - invested projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly concentrated in manufacturing industries such as electronics, chemicals, automobiles, and machinery to promote industrial cluster development [1] Service Industry - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to a media report about Trump's statement. The US has clarified that the reported statement is completely wrong, and the visit has nothing to do with the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Upstream Industry - In the black metal sector, the prices of iron ore and rebar have slightly rebounded - In the agricultural sector, the prices of eggs and palm oil have rebounded, while the price of pork has declined - In the energy sector, the international crude oil price is volatile, and the price of liquefied natural gas has declined [1] Mid - stream Industry - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate has increased, while the PTA operating rate is at a low level - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants has decreased - In the agricultural industry, the operating rate of pig products has increased [2] Downstream Industry - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights has decreased [2] Key Industry Price Indicators - On March 17, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of corn increased by 0.43%, the price of eggs increased by 1.53%, and the price of palm oil increased by 1.77%. While the price of pork decreased by 3.91%, and the price of copper decreased by 1.13% [33]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is based on the Iran geopolitical conflict, comprehensively analyzing its impact on major domestic futures varieties, covering dimensions such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - The latest development shows that due to frequent ship - attack incidents, crude oil prices have soared to around $100, intensifying the stagflation trade. Overseas markets saw synchronous declines in base metals and precious metals on Friday night, with base metals more sensitive to demand experiencing larger drops [3]. - Looking ahead, the market is gradually aware that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked for a long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially creating the largest gap in over 40 years. In the short - term, crude oil prices may remain strong, and chemicals are generally considered for buying on dips given the reduced load of domestic refineries. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, which is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts, should be focused on. Some varieties in the agricultural and black sectors are more affected by the energy attribute, so changes in oil prices should be monitored [3]. Group 2: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market realizes that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially the largest in over 40 years. The multi - empty intensity rating is 3, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 3 [7]. Asphalt - The disk profit is too low, and supply is continuously shrinking. Energy and chemical bears use BU to cover short positions and drive profit repair. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Fuel Oil - Although the price in the Singapore market dropped on Friday, there is still a spot shortage. The reduction in logistics due to the blockade will continue to materialize, and there is still support for the price. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the price drop in the Singapore market on Friday, due to the transfer of refueling demand, inventory in the Singapore area decreased rapidly. Additionally, there is a probability that domestic refineries will increase the refined oil yield, which will lead to a decline in the low - sulfur supply in coastal areas, benefiting the LU disk. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Methanol - There is still a strong expectation for the spot. It is expected that the price center of methanol will continue to rise before the geopolitical situation eases. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Para - Xylene, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - All are recommended for buying on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Short - Fiber - The Strait navigation has not been restored, and the reduction in actual logistics may have a long - tail effect. Refineries and PTA plants may face production cuts, still posing a risk of cost increase. Downstream raw material inventory is low. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Bottle Chips - Similar to short - fiber, there is a risk of cost increase. Spot factories have tight shipments, and near - month liquidity is tight. Pay attention to the upward risk and buy on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polypropylene - Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. Crude oil and propane supplies are reduced due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply. The overall import scale of PP is not high, and Middle - Eastern sources account for about 17% of the total imports in 2025, with limited Iranian sources. The shipping disruption affects near - term supply. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyethylene - The supply of upstream cracking raw materials such as naphtha and propane may be severely tightened due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic cracking has started to reduce the load, and derivatives are stronger in the near - term. In terms of PE imports and exports, Iranian sources accounted for 8.4% of imports in 2025, and the proportion of standard linear products is relatively low at 2.6%. The impact on LD, HD, and LL imports decreases in turn. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Offset Printing Paper - OP production capacity and demand are mainly domestic, and energy price changes have little impact on the industrial chain profit. Considering the relatively low funds in the disk, there is little liquidity premium. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 0 [7]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. From a macro perspective, the short - term geopolitical conflict has intensified, and energy and chemical commodities are expected to have significant valuation premiums. Fundamentally, the explicit inventory of butadiene has decreased, and under the drive of speculative sentiment, the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industrial chain has decreased. Overall, the price of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, and the geopolitical conflict may significantly increase the intraday volatility. The trading logic changes quickly following geopolitical news. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Urea - It is policy - priced, with limited fluctuations and an upward - moving price center. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Container Shipping Index - At the spot level, the actual loading list is differentiated, with greater pressure on the PA alliance and better conditions for other alliances. Shipping companies can only roll the emergency fuel surcharge into FAK, but the adjustment of FAK is chaotic. The disk 04 contract partially prices in the increase in the emergency fuel surcharge. The overall trend is still dominated by geopolitical sentiment. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Caustic Soda - Affected by the Middle - East situation, ethylene and propylene affect downstream chlorine - consuming products, leading to passive production cuts of caustic soda overseas, and the export price of caustic soda has risen significantly. At the same time, there has also been a reduction in the load of ethylene - based PVC in China, affecting caustic soda. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, the disk premium is relatively large, and the overseas plant dynamics and Chinese export signing situation need to be continuously tracked. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride - Affected by the Iranian situation, chlor - alkali production in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the production capacity of ethylene - based PVC in China has also decreased. In the future, Asian ethylene - based production capacity will face production - cut pressure. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the trading volume of PVC on the disk has not increased significantly. The core of the market lies in the impact time of the Middle - East situation. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. LPG - The export problem in the Middle - East has not been resolved, and the supply - side problem is still expected to impact the market. There is support below PG, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Propylene - The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH plants are expected to shut down centrally. PL is still expected to rise further under the background of rising costs and tightening supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Last week, in addition to the impact of geopolitical events, concerns about future spot arrivals drove the disk to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, crude oil fluctuations, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and domestic spot sentiment. Risk control is necessary. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Palm Oil - The trading of the energy attribute of palm oil continues. It is reported that the Indonesian government is considering banning the export of raw palm oil and other resource products. If implemented, it may lead to a trend - like increase in palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Soybean Oil - The cost premium of US soybeans and the customs clearance problem of the soybean system are still the current hot topics. With the support of import costs and export profits, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to run strongly in the short - term. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamental driving force for the rise of rapeseed oil itself is not strong. It is expected to be mainly affected by the trends of crude oil and palm oil. Palm oil may rise significantly due to the remarks of the Indonesian government, which will drive rapeseed oil to rise, but the expected increase is less than that of palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Group 4: Black Metals Iron Ore - It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose. From a marginal perspective, the negotiation has encountered setbacks, more BHP iron ore may be locked, steel mills' maintenance has decreased and they are gradually resuming production, and the US - Iran conflict has increased transportation costs, driving the ore price to rebound. The strategy is to focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Coking Coal - There is still an upward risk. On one hand, the recent geopolitical risk will amplify the price elasticity of coking coal. In mid - to late March, coal production and exports in Indonesia will also decline due to Ramadan, exacerbating the tightness of the overseas energy market. On the other hand, affected by the rise in energy and chemical prices, the profits of coking plants have improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has also intensified the tightness of the spot market for coking coal. The tightening of spot liquidity and the behavior of upstream producers hoarding goods will drive the price to rise. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Aluminum - Sufficient attention should be paid to the tightness of the overseas spot market. The SMM spot discounts in East and South China are relatively stable. It is reported that some spot - futures arbitrageurs are buying, and the spot - futures positive spread space is acceptable. There is also an expectation of future spot premiums. If the Strait logistics continues to be blocked, the export of Middle - East aluminum ingots and the supply interruption of raw materials will intensify. The upward strength of LME aluminum remains, which will drive the domestic market. In the past week, the disk pricing was hesitant, and aluminum may have been dragged down by the TACO expectation to some extent. While paying attention to long - position opportunities in aluminum, protective positions should also be established. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11]. Alumina - It follows the energy and chemical sector, and the trading sentiment is upward. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation has intensified, and the commodity market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The resonance of the US dollar and crude oil remains strong. The short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals, and the subsequent trend depends on the development of the war. Different commodity sectors have different trends affected by geopolitical factors and fundamentals [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall market**: The commodity market rose 3.56% last week, with precious metals leading the rise at 8.55%, followed by non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, and black metals, with increases of 8.55%, 4.53%, 2.14%, and 0.33% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and the black and energy sectors had large fluctuations. The overall market scale shrank significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [1][5] - **Specific varieties**: The top - rising varieties were tin, silver, and crude oil, with increases of 23.27%, 16.36%, and 6.01% respectively. The top - falling varieties were coke, coking coal, and PVC, with decreases of 2.76%, 2.45%, and 2.3% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious metals**: Short - term safe - haven sentiment will boost precious metals to continue to run strongly. The subsequent trend depends on whether the war develops towards negotiation or greater intensity [1] - **Non - ferrous metals**: After the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the resource attribute value of the sector has increased, but the US dollar is supported by oil prices, which suppresses the sector. The domestic post - holiday resumption of work is progressing steadily, but the inventory of the sector remains high. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [2] - **Black metals**: After the holiday, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded month - on - month, the output remains low, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The iron - making water output has increased, but the steel mill profits are still poor, and the subsequent increase rhythm may be relatively slow. The global shipment of iron ore is strong, and the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate and is at a historical high. The coking coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal, and it is difficult to decline significantly in the short term [2] - **Energy**: The US - Iran conflict has escalated to a full - scale military confrontation. Iran has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen rapidly. Geopolitical risks will continue to support crude oil prices [2] - **Chemicals**: Iran is an important supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil and methanol. The supply of these two varieties has short - term positive drivers. Rising oil prices drive downstream products in the olefin and polyester industries. The supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol may improve in the second quarter [2] - **Agricultural products**: External policy disturbances are large. Trump's 10% tariff policy has taken effect, which affects China's soybean imports. Rising crude oil prices drive vegetable oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is weak, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue. The oil - meal ratio may rise in the short term [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns last week, with returns ranging from 3.04% to 3.64%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,314.52 billion yuan, with a 1.02% increase. The trading volume decreased significantly [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.35%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 1.05%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 2.78%, and the silver fund had a return of 13.54%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 3,550.35 billion yuan, with a 1.24% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 23.55% [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the dominance of macro uncertainties, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The Fed officials' hawkish signals, the US government's tariff policies, and the tense situation between the US and Iran are the main factors affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the overall commodity market declined slightly by 0.23%. Precious metals led the gain at 3.29%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products with increases of 1.58% and 0.23% respectively. Black metals and energy - chemical products decreased by 1.1% and 1.11% respectively [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, the top - gainers were soybean No.1, silver, and apple, with increases of 6.76%, 5.23%, and 3.15% respectively. The top - losers were palm oil, asphalt, and styrene, with decreases of 3.63%, 3.56%, and 3.49% respectively [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, and the fluctuations of each sector converged. The overall market scale increased significantly, and funds in each sector showed net inflows [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - During the holiday, Fed officials' signals were hawkish, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff policy and Trump's new 10% global tariff affected the US dollar. The tense US - Iran situation supported the oil price. In the short - term, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.3 Sector - specific Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Overseas precious metals prices soared after sharp fluctuations during the holiday. With the US GDP falling short of expectations, strong core PCE, and the weakening US dollar due to the tariff policy ruling, and the lack of substantial progress in US - Iran negotiations, the strength of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Affected by the Spring Festival, terminal demand and investment weakened. The market believes that the Fed has internal differences, and the US dollar's upward trend has ended. Most varieties' inventories increased, but some supply - side supports remained. In the short - term, non - ferrous metals may be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar dropped to a low, and production remained at a low level. The inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. After the holiday, iron - water production is expected to continue the recovery trend, and there is also some restocking demand. Overseas iron - ore swaps weakened during the holiday, and concerns about iron - ore oversupply persisted. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices continued to rise during the holiday. The US - Iran situation affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected drawdown of US crude and gasoline inventories in EIA data on February 20th pushed up oil prices. The next round of US - Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market's fluctuations in the next two weeks [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: The strong oil price provides cost support, and the warming macro - sentiment is beneficial. After the holiday, domestic downstream industries will gradually resume work. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter due to planned maintenance and expected demand recovery. For polypropylene, considering controllable supply pressure, rigid demand from downstream factories, and significant cost influence, the price may trend upward [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: During the holiday, the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop tightened year - on - year, and the optimistic expectation of the US biodiesel policy supported the strength of overseas oilseeds. The good short - term export and crushing data of US soybeans boosted prices, but the tariff policy may bring uncertainties to US soybean exports [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with an average return rate of about 1.37% - 1.75%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,182.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.20%. The trading volume decreased by 57.09% [36]. - The energy - chemical ETF (represented by the Jianxin Energy - Chemical Futures ETF) had a return rate of 0.14%, with a scale of 21.13 billion yuan and a growth rate of 1.79%. The trading volume decreased by 33.79% [36]. - The soybean meal ETF (represented by the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 2.26%, with a scale of 27.19 billion yuan and a growth rate of 0.43%. The trading volume increased by 3.91% [36]. - The non - ferrous metal ETF (represented by the Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 1.34%, with a scale of 76.79 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.09%. The trading volume decreased by 36.37% [36]. - The silver fund (represented by the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return rate of 6.32%, with a scale of 104.47 billion yuan and no change in scale. The trading volume increased by 565.95% [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued an implementation opinion on promoting the high - quality development of low - altitude insurance. By 2027, a preliminary mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicle liability will be established, and by 2030, the policy framework for low - altitude insurance will basically take shape [1]. - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce have organized a "Film +" consumption comprehensive pilot program to boost consumption and promote the transformation of the film industry into a diversified consumption ecosystem [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Level Upstream - Black commodities are at low prices [1]. - Egg prices have declined [1]. - Building material prices have dropped [1]. Midstream - The operating rates of PX and urea remain high [2]. - The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - The production of pork products has increased [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - The number of domestic flights has remained high and stable [2]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value (as of 2/9) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2271.4 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.1 yuan/kg | - 12.96% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8972.0 yuan/ton | - 0.47% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15986.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.3 yuan/kg | - 0.76% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 101646.7 yuan/ton | 0.79% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24656.0 yuan/ton | - 1.26% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23406.7 yuan/ton | 1.90% | | | Spot price of nickel | 138650.0 yuan/ton | - 0.20% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16506.3 yuan/ton | 0.08% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3170.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 786.9 yuan/ton | - 2.25% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3367.5 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.3 yuan/square meter | 0.15% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16125.0 yuan/ton | 0.62% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 786.7 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | - 2.55% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 68.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.83% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Coal price | 799.0 yuan/ton | - 0.50% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5144.3 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6800.0 yuan/ton | - 3.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1765.0 yuan/ton | - 0.70% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1201.4 yuan/ton | - 0.12% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 131.7 | - 0.79% | | | Building materials composite index | | - 0.43% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | - 0.42% | [36]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The January PMI shows a decline of 0.8 points, primarily driven by seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, indicating a divergence between new and old economies [1][5][23]. Industry Analysis - **Consumer Goods**: The automotive sector, electrical machinery (including home appliances), agricultural products, chemical fibers, and textiles have all weakened. Passenger car retail sales from January 1-18 fell by 37% compared to the previous month, influenced by the expiration of tax exemptions and reduced subsidies [2][10]. - **High-Energy Industries**: The petrochemical and chemical sectors experienced a decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January, potentially constraining downstream production [2][10]. - **Metals**: Non-ferrous and ferrous industries saw increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points, respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling [2][10]. - **High-End Manufacturing**: Sectors such as computer communication electronics and specialized equipment improved, with increases of 6.9 and 4.7 points, respectively, driven by surging AI demand and price hikes from chip manufacturers [2][10]. Economic Divergence - The January data indicates a widening gap between new and old economies, with high-tech manufacturing and upstream raw materials showing strong performance, while consumer manufacturing and the petrochemical industry faced significant seasonal declines [5][23]. Construction Industry - The construction sector saw a significant decline of 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal expectations. The drop was attributed to low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with residential construction declining by 3.0 points [4][16][17]. Service Industry - The service sector experienced a slight decrease of 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in a contraction zone for three consecutive months. Financial services maintained high activity levels, while transportation and information services saw declines [21][22]. Summary - Overall, January's economic structure reflects the ongoing divergence between new and old industries, with highlights in high-tech manufacturing and upstream materials. The significant seasonal drop in consumer goods, petrochemicals, and construction sectors may explain the persistence of last year's asset trends [5][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].