Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the "anti-involution" policy progress in the production industry and the entry-exit new policies in the service industry. It also provides an overview of the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries, including price changes and industry indicators [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The energy storage industry is promoting "anti - involution." As of August 14, 152 enterprises have participated in the initiative issued by the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association on August 13 [1]. - **Service Industry**: On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. The "Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners" will be implemented on October 1, 2025, adding a K - type visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry has declined, while the prices of eggs and palm oil in the agricultural industry have increased [2]. - **Midstream**: The urea production start - up rate in the chemical industry has stopped falling [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low. The number of domestic flights is at a high level [4]. 3. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spreads of various industries as of August 13, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, chemical industry, etc., and shows their changes over different time periods [48]. 4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report tracks the price indicators of key industries as of August 14, including the prices of agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and real estate - related building materials, and shows their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [49].

Investment Insights - The market sentiment remains strong with margin trading exceeding 2 trillion, indicating a potential overheating risk [1][4] - The cyclical sector is gaining strength driven by expectations from projects like the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, while the rotation between growth and cyclical stocks continues [1][4] Equity Market Overview - Small-cap growth stocks significantly outperformed last week, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles increased [6] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices is at a near one-year low, indicating a slowdown in industry rotation [6] - The trading concentration has increased, with the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries seeing a rise in transaction value share [6] Commodity Market Analysis - Precious metals and agricultural products showed increased trend strength, while other sectors remained stable or declined [15][16] - The volatility in black and energy chemical sectors remained stable, with a slight decrease in the volatility of non-ferrous metals [15][16] Options Market Insights - Implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 indices continues to decline, reflecting a market that is both strong and cautious [24] Convertible Bond Market Trends - The premium rate for convertible bonds is approaching a one-year high, while the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums is increasing, indicating structural growth characteristics [26]

商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/8/12 有色板块内部分化扩大 商品本周多空排序变化比较明显,主要 表现为能源和有色在两端的差异扩大。 目前,截面偏强的板块是有色和黑色, 截面偏弱的是能源和农产品。具体来 看,黄金时序动量边际减弱,贵金属板 块内持仓量分化收窄。有色板块时序动 量因子仍旧保持高位,但在锌、铝等品 种的持仓量因子出现下降,截面动量分 化扩大。黑色板块,短周期动量因子边 际下降,但长周期动量逐步企稳。能源 板块时序动量大幅下降，化工品种PTA 、短纤处于截面相对偏强一端。农产品 方面,油粕期限结构差异收窄,但豆油 长周期动量高于豆粕。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 0.01 | 0.13 | | 需求 | 0.15 | 0.95 | | 库存 | 0.12 | 1.00 | | 价差 | -0.11 | 0.11 | | 大类累加 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 用 酮 国技期货 高级分析师 胡静怡 期货投资咨询证号: Z0019749 王雪忆 期货从业资格证号: F03125010 分析师 策略 ...

Group 1 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for July was 111.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - In July, the black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index continued to rise to 130.1 points, up 1.1% [1] - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased slightly to 96.7 points, down 0.6% [1] - The chemical price index peaked and then fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to decline to 71.7 points, down 2.7% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 2 - The continuous month-on-month positive growth of the commodity price index for three consecutive months indicates optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment policies is expected to support a stable and positive outlook for the commodity market [2] - Despite the overall positive trend, challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures in certain industries remain [2] - The importance of the commodity circulation industry in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development is emphasized for further economic recovery [2]

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased this week, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the energy and chemical sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in the cross - section are precious metals and agricultural products, while the relatively weak sector is the energy sector [3]. - In the precious metals sector, the sequential momentum of gold has marginally recovered, and the differentiation within the sector has narrowed. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has continued to decline slightly, and the cross - sectional differentiation has expanded, with copper and zinc being on the weaker end [3]. - In the black sector, the short - term momentum factor has marginally decreased, but the long - term factor has gradually stabilized, and the term structure differentiation has narrowed. In the energy and chemical sector, the cross - sectional momentum has declined overall, and PTA, soda ash, and glass are on the weaker end of the sector's cross - section [3]. - In the agricultural products sector, the positions of oilseeds and meals have both decreased slightly, and the differentiation has narrowed [3]. Group 2: Factor Returns - Last week's returns and monthly returns for different factors: supply factor had a last - week return of 1.64% and a monthly return of 0.00%; demand factor had a last - week return of 1.51% and a monthly return of 0.00%; inventory factor had a last - week return of 1.20% and a monthly return of - 2.28%; spread factor had a last - week return of 3.90% and a monthly return of 2.50%; profit factor had a last - week return of 0.00% and a monthly return of 0.00%; the cumulative return of major categories last week was 1.64% and this month was - 0.04% [7]. Group 3: Methanol Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.21%, the demand factor increased by 0.13%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.19%, the spread factor increased by 0.09%, and the composite factor increased by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal for short positions continues. On the fundamental factor side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants has increased, and the import arrival volume has increased slightly, indicating a short position on the supply side; the operating rates of formaldehyde and chloride plants have increased, but the capacity utilization rates of acetic acid and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of domestic methanol manufacturers has decreased, indicating a long position on the inventory side; the closing price of the main methanol futures contract and the 9 - 1 spread on the futures market have both released short - position signals, and the spread side has turned to a short position [4]. Group 4: Glass Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the inventory factor decreased by 2.28%, the spread factor increased by 2.50%, and the composite factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is a short position. On the fundamental factor side, the capacity utilization rate of float glass has remained flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; float glass enterprises have continued to reduce inventory, indicating a long position on the inventory side; the spot prices of the float glass markets in Central China, North China, and South China have all released short - position signals, indicating a short position on the spread side; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal has declined, indicating a short position on the profit side [7]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, each factor remained unchanged, and this week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. The arrival volume at Qingdao Port has increased significantly, and the shipping volumes of BHP and Rio Tinto have increased, turning the supply side into a short - position feedback, but the overall signal remains neutral. The consumption of iron ore powder for sintering in steel mills and the proportion of sintered ore in the furnace have decreased, and the strength of the long - position feedback on the demand side has decreased slightly, but the signal is still neutral. The iron ore concentrate at ports and the domestic sintering iron ore powder in steel mills have both reduced inventory slightly, weakening the short - position feedback on the inventory side. The price center of PB powder has shifted down, further weakening the strength of the long - position feedback on the spread side [7]. Group 6: Lead Analysis - In terms of strategy net value, last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.52%, the demand factor decreased by 0.51%, the spread factor increased by 0.46%, and the composite factor strengthened by 0.15%. This week, the comprehensive signal has changed from a short position to neutral. The price of domestic lead concentrates from SMM has decreased, and the profit of tax - free recycled lead has decreased, turning the supply - side signal to neutral. The LME lead inventory and registered warrants have increased, turning the inventory side into a short - position feedback, but the overall signal remains neutral. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has widened, strengthening the short - position feedback on the spread side [7].

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年中国经济面临的关键考题之一，是如何在复杂国际环境下通过出口撬动增长引擎。作为国民经 济"压舱石"的大宗商品，其6月出口同环比数据不仅折射出全球产业链重构的微妙信号，更暗藏中国的 产业韧性。 最新数据显示，6月大宗商品及其下游出口呈现结构分化与趋势调整，比如汽车船舶等制成品出口同 比保持相对强势，但光伏产业链出口出现承压状态。 本次课题我们聚焦大宗商品出口持续性展开研究，系统梳理了各主要大宗商品及其核心下游出口的6 月环比，6月同比，1-6月累计同比等关键指标。 从我们统计的数据来看，平板玻璃、电解铝、锌锭、铅锭、镍、碳酸锂等品种及特定品种下游如复合 肥、焊锡等出口持续性较好。 | 板块 | 品种名/ | 6月环比 | 6月同比 | 1-6月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 核心下游 | | | 累计同比 | | | PTA | -3.8% | -39.9% | -16.9% | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. Currently, the market has digested the impact of the tariff issue. The US - EU tariff problem remains intense, and there are positive signals from trade agreements after the visit to Japan. The market shows no concern about the potential dollar liquidity pressure from Powell's situation and US fiscal debt issuance. With stable external macro - liquidity, the market has strong expectations for China's "expanding domestic demand" and "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term risk preference is expected to remain oscillating strongly, waiting for clearer macro - policies [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 1.33% last week. Agricultural products and precious metals had larger increases of 1.44% and 1.29% respectively, while black, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous metals rose 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.37% respectively. The inflow of funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][5] - **Individual Varieties**: Among individual varieties, crude oil, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon had the highest increases of 3.52%, 3.38%, and 3.33% respectively. LPG, urea, and lead had larger declines of 2.48%, 1.58%, and 1.49% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The market continued its strong trend, with silver performing prominently. Silver futures rose more than gold due to the dollar's decline, increased macro - easing expectations, and the improvement of industrial products' prices boosting silver's industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation supported by safe - haven demand and weak inflation data, benefiting from the continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They continued the oscillating and strengthening pattern. Main varieties like copper and aluminum rebounded slightly due to low inventory and overseas supply disruptions. The demand for non - ferrous metals is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, and the electrolytic copper market still has medium - term support [2] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices rebounded significantly under cost support and production - limit rumors. Iron ore and coking coal prices also strengthened. The market's pessimistic sentiment about steel fundamentals has eased, although the actual terminal demand still needs further observation [2] - **Energy**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) and the demand during the summer travel season. Concerns about global supply tightening and the decline in US crude oil inventories further promoted the stabilization and recovery of oil prices. Domestic energy varieties such as fuel oil and crude oil futures continued to rebound [3] - **Chemicals**: The market was generally firm, and some varieties continued to recover. The stabilization of crude oil at the cost end drove the sentiment of the entire chemical industry to improve. Products like PVC and PTA benefited from downstream replenishment and the decline in industry operating rates, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not fully improved, and short - term price fluctuations are still uncertain [3] - **Agricultural Products**: They rose slightly this week. Rapeseed meal rebounded due to the relief of import pressure and the decline in domestic oil mill operations. The oil and fat sector oscillated at a high level under international market influence. Corn and wheat stopped falling and rebounded due to the relief of inventory pressure and weather speculation. Policy support for food security and planting structure adjustment will continue to affect the market [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with an average return of around 0.4%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 1,549.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.82%. The total trading volume decreased by 34.33% [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of 0.39%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 2.43%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of - 0.45%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 1,617.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.59%, and the total trading volume decreased by 16.30% [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the commodity price index in China increased by 0.5% month-on-month in June, reaching 110.8 points [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 17 experienced a month-on-month price increase [1] - The chemical price index continued to rise, while the energy price index rebounded due to rising international crude oil prices and increased costs of gasoline and diesel products [1] Group 2 - The agricultural product price index showed a slight decline, influenced by rising temperatures and the seasonal decrease in end-user consumption, leading to slight price drops in some varieties [1] - The black and mineral price indices continued to decline [1]