大宗商品周度报告 2026年2月25日 ●行情回顾：节前商品市场整体微跌0.23%，其中贵金属领涨3.29%，有 色和农产品分别上涨1.58%和0.23%，黑色和能化分别下跌1.1%和1.11%。 宏观不确定性主导下 短期商品或震荡偏强 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为豆一、白银和苹果，涨幅分别 为6.76%、5.23%和3.15%；跌幅较大的品种为棕榈油、沥青和苯乙烯，跌 幅分别为3.63%、3.56%和3.49%。 商品市场20日平均波动率小幅下降，各板块波动均有所收敛。资金方 面，全市场规模大幅增加，各板块资金均表现为净流入。 ●展望：假期期间，美联储官员释放的信号整体偏鹰，美元指数偏强运行。 随着美国最高法院裁定政府大规模关税政策违法，美元有所走弱。不过特朗 普新征收的10%的全球关税开始生效，白宫正在制定行政令以提高税率。美 伊局势依然焦灼，对油价形成明显支撑。短期在宏观不确定性主导下，商品 市场或震荡偏强。 贵金属方面，假期期间外盘贵金属在剧烈震荡后冲高，美国GDP不及预 期，但核心PCE较强，另外美国最高法院裁定政府大规模关税政策违法，美 元指数走弱。美伊谈判无实质性进展，短期风险事件关键节 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued an implementation opinion on promoting the high - quality development of low - altitude insurance. By 2027, a preliminary mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicle liability will be established, and by 2030, the policy framework for low - altitude insurance will basically take shape [1]. - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce have organized a "Film +" consumption comprehensive pilot program to boost consumption and promote the transformation of the film industry into a diversified consumption ecosystem [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Level Upstream - Black commodities are at low prices [1]. - Egg prices have declined [1]. - Building material prices have dropped [1]. Midstream - The operating rates of PX and urea remain high [2]. - The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - The production of pork products has increased [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - The number of domestic flights has remained high and stable [2]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value (as of 2/9) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2271.4 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.1 yuan/kg | - 12.96% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8972.0 yuan/ton | - 0.47% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15986.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.3 yuan/kg | - 0.76% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 101646.7 yuan/ton | 0.79% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24656.0 yuan/ton | - 1.26% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23406.7 yuan/ton | 1.90% | | | Spot price of nickel | 138650.0 yuan/ton | - 0.20% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16506.3 yuan/ton | 0.08% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3170.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 786.9 yuan/ton | - 2.25% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3367.5 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.3 yuan/square meter | 0.15% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16125.0 yuan/ton | 0.62% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 786.7 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | - 2.55% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 68.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.83% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Coal price | 799.0 yuan/ton | - 0.50% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5144.3 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6800.0 yuan/ton | - 3.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1765.0 yuan/ton | - 0.70% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1201.4 yuan/ton | - 0.12% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 131.7 | - 0.79% | | | Building materials composite index | | - 0.43% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | - 0.42% | [36]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The January PMI shows a decline of 0.8 points, primarily driven by seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, indicating a divergence between new and old economies [1][5][23]. Industry Analysis - **Consumer Goods**: The automotive sector, electrical machinery (including home appliances), agricultural products, chemical fibers, and textiles have all weakened. Passenger car retail sales from January 1-18 fell by 37% compared to the previous month, influenced by the expiration of tax exemptions and reduced subsidies [2][10]. - **High-Energy Industries**: The petrochemical and chemical sectors experienced a decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January, potentially constraining downstream production [2][10]. - **Metals**: Non-ferrous and ferrous industries saw increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points, respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling [2][10]. - **High-End Manufacturing**: Sectors such as computer communication electronics and specialized equipment improved, with increases of 6.9 and 4.7 points, respectively, driven by surging AI demand and price hikes from chip manufacturers [2][10]. Economic Divergence - The January data indicates a widening gap between new and old economies, with high-tech manufacturing and upstream raw materials showing strong performance, while consumer manufacturing and the petrochemical industry faced significant seasonal declines [5][23]. Construction Industry - The construction sector saw a significant decline of 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal expectations. The drop was attributed to low temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, with residential construction declining by 3.0 points [4][16][17]. Service Industry - The service sector experienced a slight decrease of 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in a contraction zone for three consecutive months. Financial services maintained high activity levels, while transportation and information services saw declines [21][22]. Summary - Overall, January's economic structure reflects the ongoing divergence between new and old industries, with highlights in high-tech manufacturing and upstream materials. The significant seasonal drop in consumer goods, petrochemicals, and construction sectors may explain the persistence of last year's asset trends [5][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching highs, with market guidance leading to a rational return and short-term adjustments in themes [1][4] - In the medium to long term, market consolidation is expected to benefit a slow bull market, with high-growth sectors presenting investment value [1][4] - Short-term volatility may occur, but it is recommended to focus on sectors with upward momentum after the weight pressure diminishes [1][4] Equity Market Factors - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style continues to favor growth stocks [6][8] - Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have risen to near one-year highs, with increased volatility in the return differences between styles [6][8] - The excess return dispersion among industries has rebounded, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline [6][8] Trading Activity - The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [6] - The trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume holding steady and the top five industries' trading volume share slightly increasing [6][7] Market Liquidity - Market volatility, except for the 1000 index, has generally decreased, while the turnover rate is on an upward trend [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline [21][22] - The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, while other sectors have shown a downward trend [21][22] - Volatility in precious metals and non-ferrous metals remains high, while the volatility in black and energy sectors has slightly decreased [21][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite and CSI 1000 has started to decline from its peak, indicating a cooling market sentiment [28] - The skewness of call options has decreased while that of put options has increased, suggesting a reduction in market exuberance [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations, with the premium rate for bonds at 100 yuan halting its upward trend and showing a slight adjustment [29] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has increased, while market transaction volumes remain high [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lack of a strict sequential pattern in the rotation of commodity markets during bull cycles, emphasizing that the performance of different sectors is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the fundamentals of the commodities themselves [2][18]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of Commodity Bull Markets - Historical reviews show that previous commodity bull markets do not follow a strict "gold first, silver follows, copper confirms, oil leads, and agriculture ends" rotation sequence [18]. - The analysis of four major commodity bull markets since 2000 indicates that agricultural products tend to perform strongly in the later stages of bull markets, exhibiting a lagging upward trend [18]. - Each commodity sector's performance order and intensity are fundamentally driven by unique macroeconomic environments (such as monetary policy and economic cycle phases) and their own fundamentals (supply, demand, inventory) [18]. Group 2: Current Market Sentiment and Trends - The current commodity market sentiment indicators are approaching an overheating warning line, suggesting an increased risk of short-term market corrections [20]. - Since June 2025, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into the commodity market, with a notable shift from precious metals and non-ferrous metals to other sectors [21][23]. - The current market structure shows a strength in non-ferrous and precious metals, while the black and chemical sectors are relatively weak, indicating a need for effective rotation to sustain upward momentum [24].

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were relatively strong in cross - section, the black and energy sectors were above the neutral range, and the agricultural products sector was relatively weak [3]. - In the methanol strategy, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%, and the comprehensive signal this week is long. In the float glass strategy, the synthetic factor increased by 1.38% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. In the iron ore strategy, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week remains neutral. In the lead strategy, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week changed from short to long [5][8][10] Section Summaries Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were strong in cross - section, agricultural products were weak. Gold's time - series momentum rose slightly, silver's position increased more marginally. In the non - ferrous sector, short - cycle momentum recovered, and the term structure differentiation narrowed. In the black sector, time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. In the energy and chemical sector, short - cycle momentum factors recovered. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrowed [3] Performance of Different Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%. The import methanol arrival volume and domestic road transport prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased on the demand side; the methanol port continued to destock on the inventory side; the domestic methanol spot price fell while the port price was strong on the spread side [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly long, the inventory side turns neutral, and the profit side remains short [8] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the inventory factor declined by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. The supply side turns to short feedback but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback weakens and turns to neutral, the inventory side's signal turns from short to neutral, and the spread side's short feedback weakens slightly and the signal remains neutral [10] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. The supply side signal turns from short to neutral, the inventory side signal turns from neutral to long, and the spread side signal turns from short to long [10] Data Tables - **Commodity Factors Performance Table**: It shows the last week's and current month's returns of supply, demand, inventory, spread, and the cumulative returns of major categories [4] - **Factor Index Table for Different Sectors**: It presents the time - series momentum, cross - section momentum, term structure, and position volume of black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, stock index, and precious metals sectors [6]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - In the third week of December, the real - estate transaction heat slightly recovered, but the overall situation of new and second - hand houses was weak, and the year - on - year readings were weaker than before due to the high base effect. House prices needed improvement, and land transaction indicators remained at a low level [3]. - In terms of production, the resilience of freight volume declined in the industrial sector, most production start - up rates were weak, the refinery start - up rate recovered, while coking, blast furnace, and automobile production were marginally weak. In the construction industry, the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak, inventory decreased slightly, and the asphalt start - up rate fluctuated at a low level [3]. - For external demand, the throughput decreased year - on - year but remained at a high level, and freight rate indicators were slightly differentiated. Comprehensive indices such as BDI and RJ/CRB were strong but marginally declined, while CCFI and SCFI indices increased [3]. - In the consumption sector, the travel heat slightly declined, and the year - on - year performance of automobile consumption was weak [3]. - Regarding prices, pork prices were weak under supply pressure, overseas interest - rate cut expectations and production - end disturbances affected crude oil and copper prices, and black - series prices recovered [3]. Group 2: Consumption - Travel heat decreased overall, with year - on - year declines in subway travel, congestion delay index, and domestic and international flights compared to the previous values [4]. - Automobile consumption was weak year - on - year, and the express delivery collection level decreased [4]. Group 3: Real Estate - The real - estate transaction heat slightly increased, with new - house transaction heat slightly recovering, and third - tier cities leading in structure; second - hand house transaction heat also slightly recovered, but with differentiated performance in high - level cities [5][10]. - The listed quantity and price of second - hand houses both decreased [11]. - The land - market premium rate remained at a low level, and land transaction volume increased seasonally [11]. - Last week, real - estate policies continued to exert force on both the supply and demand sides [12]. Group 4: Production - Railway and highway freight volume decreased, and industry start - up rates were differentiated. The start - up rates of coking and refineries increased year - on - year, while those of PTA, polyester, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms were weak, and the start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires slightly decreased [17]. - Coal consumption decreased year - on - year, hydropower generation weakened, and coal prices increased month - on - month [13]. Group 5: Construction - Construction funds decreased month - on - month, and the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak. Cement and black - series inventories decreased slightly, and prices increased [14][15]. - The asphalt start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and prices increased slightly. The start - up rates of PVC and styrene were marginally differentiated [16]. Group 6: External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput maintained resilience, and freight rates were differentiated. RJ/CRB and BDI decreased year - on - year, while CCFI and SCFI increased [5][18]. - South Korea's and Vietnam's exports maintained resilience [5]. - The US employment data was generally weak, and the euro - zone price pressure eased [5][19]. - The domestic import freight rate (CDFI) decreased month - on - month [19]. Group 7: Prices - The comprehensive indices of RJ/CRB and South China Industrial Products Index decreased. Pork and vegetable prices decreased, while black - series prices increased, and the prices of crude oil and copper were affected by various factors [6][20][21]. - Crude oil prices decreased due to supply - side factors such as expected record - high US production and sufficient Middle - East supply, and the weakening of geopolitical premiums [21]. - Black - series prices increased. Coke supply was tightened by environmental protection policies, and the supply - demand expectation of rebar slightly improved [22]. - Copper prices remained flat, supported by the supply - demand pattern but affected by different factors such as interest - rate cut expectations [22].