2月4日（周三），恒生科技全天表现弱势，权重股腾讯控股受到"元宝风波"影响，盘中一度跌近4%。 截至16点港股收盘，恒生科技跌1.84%，日K"五连跌"。但资金面上看，南向资金下跌之际大幅加仓， 全天净流入约133亿港元，创近一周净流入新高。 ETF资金动向方面，恒生互联网ETF、港股通科技ETF、港股通互联网ETF2月4日均出现大额买单，连 续两日出现大额净流入，显示资金逆势布局，"越跌越买"。华夏基金分析称，资金之所以逆势加仓，或 基于三点： 1）港股科技相对A股、美股科技，估值处于近5年低位，恒生科技与创业板指收益差到历史高位，安全 边际高；2）港股科技板块占据AI应用端与商业化核心环节，增长确定性高；3）海外弱美元大趋势不 变，与南向资金共振，为港股后市流动性提供支撑。上述三大因素都将为港股科技未来价值回归创造条 件。 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）在深圳证券交易所上市，并支持T+0交易机制，为A股投资者提供低 门槛、免换汇的交易便利。场外投资者也可以逢低定投华夏港股通科技ETF联接C（025806.OF）。 逢低布局港股科技核心资产，可以关注港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ），被 ...

经历1月最后一个交易日的史诗级暴跌后，2月2日，伦敦现货黄金、白银开盘跌势暂缓，白银盘中一度实现"由跌转涨"。但涨势维持时间不长，黄金、白 银再陷深跌。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，现货白银一度大跌近8%，随后开始反弹，现货黄金一度重返4800美元，现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至近4%。9:12左 右，黄金、白银再次出现大跳水，现货黄金失守4590美元关口，一度跌至4583美元，现货白银也一度失守80美元关口，COMEX黄金涨超1%，报4802美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨超8%，报85美元/盎司。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4685.990 | | 昨年 | 4895.118 | | 总量 | | 0 | | -209.128 | -427% 十益 | | 4783.510 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4884.784 | 博 仓 | 0 | | 外 雷 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 458 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 有色调整点评 产业趋势不改，短期调整带来中长期布局时点 有色板块有望持续受益于金融属性与产业趋势的共振驱动，短期回调或成为 中长期布局时点。 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 ◼ 今日有色板块出现较大调整，受隔夜国际黄金、白银调整的影响，A 股和 港股的有色金属板块开盘大幅下跌，贵金属板块多股跌停。今日贵金属价 格出现显著回调，是短期技术面、宏观政策预期与市场情绪共振的结果， 其剧烈波动恰恰印证了当前趋势在，但短期波动急剧放大的市场特征。 ◼ 周五特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其政策主张偏鹰派， 主张缩减资产负债表。这扭转了市场对流动性持续宽松的预期，推动美元 走强，直接压制了以美元计价的贵金属。与此同时，铜 ...

Group 1 - The core market products were actively traded last week, with A500ETF (159361) and other ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index having a total trading volume exceeding 130 billion yuan [1][6] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) index increasing by over 8% last week [2][4] - The technology sector experienced a pullback, but ETFs focused on technology themes attracted significant capital inflows, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) seeing a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan [8][11] Group 2 - The overall market showed signs of structural recovery, supported by economic resilience and favorable policies, indicating that A-shares may continue a steady upward trend [3][11] - The trading volume of ETFs tracking the ChiNext, STAR Market, and CSI 300 indices was notably high, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) and ChiNext ETF (159915) among the top performers [6][7] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) announced its fourth dividend distribution this year, reflecting a consistent dividend policy [10] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical and gold sectors led the market gains, with several ETFs in these categories showing significant weekly increases [4][5] - The net inflow of capital into technology and high-dividend sectors was substantial, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) receiving considerable attention [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-quality development and long-term growth policies, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for medium to long-term investments [11]

Group 1 - Spot gold reached $4,140 per ounce, increasing by 0.70% on the day, while the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) opened high and rose by 2.2%, hitting a new intraday high with a net inflow of 0.11 billion yuan yesterday [1] - The A-share market saw all three major indices open higher, with the CSI A500 Index (000510.CSI) rising by 0.86%. Notable performers included Baogang Group hitting the daily limit, Sanhuan Group increasing over 13%, and Quzhou Development rising nearly 10% [3] - The CSI A500 ETF Tianhong (159360) increased by 0.89%, with a latest circulating share count of 1.385 billion and a circulating scale of 1.72 billion yuan as of October 13 [3] Group 2 - Longjiang Securities indicated that the recent tariff increases by the Trump administration are driven by high U.S. debt levels and declining manufacturing competitiveness, leading to a weakening dollar and increased gold purchases by central banks to mitigate political risks [4] - The weak dollar trend is expected to continue, suggesting that gold retains its allocation value from an asset perspective [4]

Group 1: Industry Insights - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.58%, closing at $4035.5 per ounce, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [1] - Long-term trends suggest that a weak dollar is likely to persist due to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing under fiscal pressure, making gold an attractive asset for investment [1] - Historical analysis shows that gold stocks tend to exhibit the most elasticity after confirming an upward trend in gold prices, with the current cycle just beginning [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Sichuan Gold is currently engaged in gold mining operations at the Suoluo River gold mine, maintaining a stable production capacity of 600,000 tons per year, with gold concentrate production ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 tons over the past three years [2] - Sichuan Gold announced on October 9 that it has successfully acquired exploration rights for the Kugezi-Juebei gold mine in Xinjiang [2] - Xiaocheng Technology operates three gold mines in Ghana, with a complete industry chain from exploration to sales; the FGM processing plant is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, significantly increasing processing capacity and gold output [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ETF is reshaping the pricing system of certain core sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, with significant inflows from southbound funds driving this change [1][4][6] - Southbound funds have recorded a net purchase of HKD 358.76 billion in Hong Kong stocks on August 15, marking a new high since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism, with total net purchases reaching HKD 938.9 billion this year [1][4] - The performance of Hong Kong-themed ETFs has been particularly strong, with six out of nine ETFs that received over HKD 10 billion in net inflows being Hong Kong-themed ETFs [1][4] Group 2 - Three main themes leading the inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks via ETFs are internet, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant growth in ETF sizes [2][3] - The Fu Guo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF has seen a net increase of HKD 469.18 billion this year, ranking first in the market, while other ETFs in the technology and financial sectors have also experienced substantial growth [2][3] - The performance of these ETFs is driven by strong earnings, with the Fu Guo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF up 37.14% this year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][4] Group 3 - The increasing influence of southbound funds, particularly through ETFs, is reshaping the pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, moving from foreign capital to domestic capital [6][7][8] - The market is witnessing a shift in valuation mechanisms, especially in sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials, which are increasingly driven by domestic capital [8][9] - The current market environment is characterized by ample incremental capital, improved risk appetite, and attractive valuations compared to overseas markets, indicating a potential for continued valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks [9][10]

Report Information - Report Title: "Weak Dollar Trend Leads to Metals Oscillating on the Strong Side —— Weekly Report on Base Metals Copper and Tin of China Merchants Futures on August 10, 2025" [1] - Report Date: August 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ma Yun [2] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the risk appetite in the domestic market remains high due to the upcoming September military parade and the October Politburo meeting, with optimistic market expectations. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week, but due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. It is recommended to buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - **Price Performance**: In the week from August 4 - 8, metals oscillated on the strong side, with overseas markets stronger than domestic ones. In the Shanghai market, the order of metal performance is aluminum > zinc > lead > nickel > tin > copper. Over the past year, the London Copper Index rose 8.2%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 6.2%; over the past month, the London Copper Index rose 1.1%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 0.3%; over the past week, the London Copper Index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Copper Index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the market continued to trade on the expectation of a weaker dollar under the narrative of weak US non - farm payroll data and the replacement of the Fed Chairman with a dovish candidate. The RMB was relatively strong, so the performance of London metals was significantly stronger than that of domestic metals. Additionally, the obvious off - season for domestic demand and the accumulation of base metal inventories also dragged down domestic price performance [6]. 2. Next Week's Viewpoints - **Weekly Logic**: Domestically, with the approaching September military parade and October Politburo meeting, the short - term risk appetite remains high and market expectations are optimistic. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week. However, due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. Microscopically, the tight situation of copper ore continues. Although China's copper production in July still had a high year - on - year growth, there are expectations of summer maintenance for many smelters in August. The low spot premium, flat structure, and inventory accumulation in the domestic market all indicate that demand is in the off - season, but the scrap - refined copper price difference of around 750 yuan also indicates that the valuation of refined copper is low. In the short term, the tin market has low capital attention, limited settled funds, and current supply - demand weakness. The market is concerned about the resumption of production rhythm in Wa State, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent [8]. - **Recommended Strategies**: Buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. - **Next Week's Focus**: China's monetary and credit data, US CPI, and retail sales data [9] 3. Industry Analysis - Copper - **Macro - environment**: CME interest rate futures expect four consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts. The domestic PPI is expected to be boosted at the bottom. Attention should be paid to China's monetary and credit data and US inflation and consumption data [12][22]. - **Supply**: In July, China's refined copper production increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and copper product imports increased by 9% year - on - year. In June, the scrap copper production decreased by 12% year - on - year [25][27]. - **Demand**: In July, the copper product operating rate was 71.6%, compared with 72.9% in the same period last year. Real estate sales are still weak year - on - year, while power grid investment and integrated circuit demand are on the rise [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The domestic copper inventory is 211,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 10,600 tons [37]. - **Valuation**: The TC decreased by $38 weekly, indicating that the tight situation of copper ore continues. The spot import loss is 245 yuan, and the scrap - refined copper price difference is 784 yuan [40][42]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME funds continued to increase slightly, while the domestic position decreased [48]. 4. Industry Analysis - Tin - **Supply**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year import of tin ore decreased by 32%. The mining license approval in Wa State is completed, but the resumption of production is slow due to the rainy season. In July, the production of tin ingots and recycled tin increased by 0.1% and decreased by 30.7% year - on - year respectively, and the weekly operating rate of two provinces increased by 0.4% [52][56]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of solder is low, while the data of integrated circuits and semiconductors still show positive growth [58]. - **Inventory**: The global exchange inventory of tin is 11,945 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 330 tons [61]. - **Valuation**: The processing fee is at a low level. The spot import loss is 16,400 yuan, the premium is 650 yuan, and the London contango is $70 [64]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME decreased slightly, and the market attention is low [70].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the capital market and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the stock market in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Liquidity and Stock Performance** The current market is significantly driven by liquidity, with a strong correlation between M1 and stock market indicators, while the correlation with real economy indicators has weakened. This indicates an elevated status of the capital market as a reservoir for wealth [1][3][10]. 2. **Central Bank Policies** The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy, with liquidity being funneled into the stock market through innovative monetary tools, rather than fully entering the real economy. This has provided upward momentum for stock indices [4][5]. 3. **Market Sentiment** Market sentiment is characterized by active trading of leveraged funds, with margin trading balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan and financing buy-in ratios reaching annual highs. This reflects a high absorption of market sentiment [6][9]. 4. **Sector Performance** The innovative pharmaceutical and computing communication sectors have shown remarkable performance, with short and small pullback cycles and strong upward trends. This indicates a lack of fear regarding high valuations and a continued pursuit of growth [7][17]. 5. **Comparison with 2015 Bull Market** Unlike the 2015 bull market driven by high leverage and rapid retail investor entry, the current market is supported by policy measures aimed at nurturing long-term investments, which may lead to a more stable slow bull market [8][9][15]. 6. **Potential Sources of Incremental Capital** Future sources of incremental capital include the entry of medium to long-term funds driven by policy guidance, the maturation of residents' deposits, and the external spillover of global liquidity due to a weak dollar [10][12][14][16]. 7. **Impact of Residents' Asset Migration** The upcoming peak in maturity for residents' fixed deposits and wealth management products is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the stock market, potentially providing additional liquidity [12][13]. 8. **Global Liquidity Trends** A weak dollar trend may accelerate the spillover of global liquidity, which could strengthen global risk assets, particularly emerging market assets [14]. 9. **Future Market Outlook** The overall upward trend of the market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual transition to an earnings-driven phase as economic conditions improve [15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Policy Initiatives** Recent policy initiatives aim to enhance the stability and scale of capital market investments, focusing on long-term capital inflow and improving the investment environment for institutional investors [11]. 2. **Sector Focus for Investment** Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with significant growth potential, including technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends, as well as thematic investments in advanced technologies [17].