1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ETF is reshaping the pricing system of certain core sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, with significant inflows from southbound funds driving this change [1][4][6] - Southbound funds have recorded a net purchase of HKD 358.76 billion in Hong Kong stocks on August 15, marking a new high since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism, with total net purchases reaching HKD 938.9 billion this year [1][4] - The performance of Hong Kong-themed ETFs has been particularly strong, with six out of nine ETFs that received over HKD 10 billion in net inflows being Hong Kong-themed ETFs [1][4] Group 2 - Three main themes leading the inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks via ETFs are internet, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant growth in ETF sizes [2][3] - The Fu Guo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF has seen a net increase of HKD 469.18 billion this year, ranking first in the market, while other ETFs in the technology and financial sectors have also experienced substantial growth [2][3] - The performance of these ETFs is driven by strong earnings, with the Fu Guo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF up 37.14% this year, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][4] Group 3 - The increasing influence of southbound funds, particularly through ETFs, is reshaping the pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, moving from foreign capital to domestic capital [6][7][8] - The market is witnessing a shift in valuation mechanisms, especially in sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials, which are increasingly driven by domestic capital [8][9] - The current market environment is characterized by ample incremental capital, improved risk appetite, and attractive valuations compared to overseas markets, indicating a potential for continued valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks [9][10]

Report Information - Report Title: "Weak Dollar Trend Leads to Metals Oscillating on the Strong Side —— Weekly Report on Base Metals Copper and Tin of China Merchants Futures on August 10, 2025" [1] - Report Date: August 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ma Yun [2] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the risk appetite in the domestic market remains high due to the upcoming September military parade and the October Politburo meeting, with optimistic market expectations. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week, but due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. It is recommended to buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - **Price Performance**: In the week from August 4 - 8, metals oscillated on the strong side, with overseas markets stronger than domestic ones. In the Shanghai market, the order of metal performance is aluminum > zinc > lead > nickel > tin > copper. Over the past year, the London Copper Index rose 8.2%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 6.2%; over the past month, the London Copper Index rose 1.1%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 0.3%; over the past week, the London Copper Index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Copper Index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the market continued to trade on the expectation of a weaker dollar under the narrative of weak US non - farm payroll data and the replacement of the Fed Chairman with a dovish candidate. The RMB was relatively strong, so the performance of London metals was significantly stronger than that of domestic metals. Additionally, the obvious off - season for domestic demand and the accumulation of base metal inventories also dragged down domestic price performance [6]. 2. Next Week's Viewpoints - **Weekly Logic**: Domestically, with the approaching September military parade and October Politburo meeting, the short - term risk appetite remains high and market expectations are optimistic. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week. However, due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. Microscopically, the tight situation of copper ore continues. Although China's copper production in July still had a high year - on - year growth, there are expectations of summer maintenance for many smelters in August. The low spot premium, flat structure, and inventory accumulation in the domestic market all indicate that demand is in the off - season, but the scrap - refined copper price difference of around 750 yuan also indicates that the valuation of refined copper is low. In the short term, the tin market has low capital attention, limited settled funds, and current supply - demand weakness. The market is concerned about the resumption of production rhythm in Wa State, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent [8]. - **Recommended Strategies**: Buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. - **Next Week's Focus**: China's monetary and credit data, US CPI, and retail sales data [9] 3. Industry Analysis - Copper - **Macro - environment**: CME interest rate futures expect four consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts. The domestic PPI is expected to be boosted at the bottom. Attention should be paid to China's monetary and credit data and US inflation and consumption data [12][22]. - **Supply**: In July, China's refined copper production increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and copper product imports increased by 9% year - on - year. In June, the scrap copper production decreased by 12% year - on - year [25][27]. - **Demand**: In July, the copper product operating rate was 71.6%, compared with 72.9% in the same period last year. Real estate sales are still weak year - on - year, while power grid investment and integrated circuit demand are on the rise [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The domestic copper inventory is 211,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 10,600 tons [37]. - **Valuation**: The TC decreased by $38 weekly, indicating that the tight situation of copper ore continues. The spot import loss is 245 yuan, and the scrap - refined copper price difference is 784 yuan [40][42]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME funds continued to increase slightly, while the domestic position decreased [48]. 4. Industry Analysis - Tin - **Supply**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year import of tin ore decreased by 32%. The mining license approval in Wa State is completed, but the resumption of production is slow due to the rainy season. In July, the production of tin ingots and recycled tin increased by 0.1% and decreased by 30.7% year - on - year respectively, and the weekly operating rate of two provinces increased by 0.4% [52][56]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of solder is low, while the data of integrated circuits and semiconductors still show positive growth [58]. - **Inventory**: The global exchange inventory of tin is 11,945 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 330 tons [61]. - **Valuation**: The processing fee is at a low level. The spot import loss is 16,400 yuan, the premium is 650 yuan, and the London contango is $70 [64]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME decreased slightly, and the market attention is low [70].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the capital market and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the stock market in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Liquidity and Stock Performance** The current market is significantly driven by liquidity, with a strong correlation between M1 and stock market indicators, while the correlation with real economy indicators has weakened. This indicates an elevated status of the capital market as a reservoir for wealth [1][3][10]. 2. **Central Bank Policies** The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy, with liquidity being funneled into the stock market through innovative monetary tools, rather than fully entering the real economy. This has provided upward momentum for stock indices [4][5]. 3. **Market Sentiment** Market sentiment is characterized by active trading of leveraged funds, with margin trading balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan and financing buy-in ratios reaching annual highs. This reflects a high absorption of market sentiment [6][9]. 4. **Sector Performance** The innovative pharmaceutical and computing communication sectors have shown remarkable performance, with short and small pullback cycles and strong upward trends. This indicates a lack of fear regarding high valuations and a continued pursuit of growth [7][17]. 5. **Comparison with 2015 Bull Market** Unlike the 2015 bull market driven by high leverage and rapid retail investor entry, the current market is supported by policy measures aimed at nurturing long-term investments, which may lead to a more stable slow bull market [8][9][15]. 6. **Potential Sources of Incremental Capital** Future sources of incremental capital include the entry of medium to long-term funds driven by policy guidance, the maturation of residents' deposits, and the external spillover of global liquidity due to a weak dollar [10][12][14][16]. 7. **Impact of Residents' Asset Migration** The upcoming peak in maturity for residents' fixed deposits and wealth management products is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the stock market, potentially providing additional liquidity [12][13]. 8. **Global Liquidity Trends** A weak dollar trend may accelerate the spillover of global liquidity, which could strengthen global risk assets, particularly emerging market assets [14]. 9. **Future Market Outlook** The overall upward trend of the market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual transition to an earnings-driven phase as economic conditions improve [15][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Policy Initiatives** Recent policy initiatives aim to enhance the stability and scale of capital market investments, focusing on long-term capital inflow and improving the investment environment for institutional investors [11]. 2. **Sector Focus for Investment** Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with significant growth potential, including technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends, as well as thematic investments in advanced technologies [17].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiarongli Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Initiation A (019987) reported a profit of 59,900 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0119 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 1.26% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.978 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 4.63%, ranking 539 out of 615 in its category [4]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 4.02%, ranking 512 out of 615, and the one-year growth rate was 9.63%, ranking 450 out of 584 [4]. - Since inception, the fund has maintained a high average stock position of 92.4%, compared to the category average of 83.13% [14]. Fund Management Insights - The fund manager, Yin Hang, oversees seven funds and anticipates that market sentiment will focus on the performance of A-share companies as they disclose their semi-annual reports [3]. - The manager believes that sectors with better-than-expected performance or sustained growth will attract short-term attention [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 20.86%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 16.34% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Erdos, New China Life Insurance, Gree Electric Appliances, China Shenhua Energy, Huayang Co., China Merchants Highway, Shangu Power, Chengdu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qilu Bank [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, highlighting the impact of tariffs and currency fluctuations on global markets and economies, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar and the implications for exporters and importers [1][4][12]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with the UK, while negotiations with Vietnam have led to significant tariff changes, including a proposed 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam [4][5]. - The EU is facing tense negotiations with the U.S., with no substantial progress on the proposed 20% "reciprocal" tariffs, while Japan is trying to avoid a 24% tariff on its exports [5][6]. - Canada has resumed negotiations after withdrawing a digital tax measure, aiming for an agreement by July 21, with key issues remaining around steel and automotive tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Currency Fluctuations - The structural trend of a weaker U.S. dollar is evident, with the yuan appreciating against the dollar, reaching a midpoint of 7.1523 on July 3, 2025, and expectations that it may soon break the 7.1 mark [1][12][14]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the yuan is influenced by the ongoing trade tensions and the potential for exporters to convert their dollar holdings into yuan, with estimates indicating that up to $100 billion of the $700 billion held by exporters may be exchanged if the yuan continues to strengthen [14][15]. - The euro has also shown significant strength, appreciating nearly 10% against the dollar in the first half of 2025, marking a notable recovery from previous declines [8][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in spot gold prices, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] - The article notes that key resistance moving averages are on the verge of being breached, suggesting a critical point for gold prices [1] - The weak dollar trend, influenced by policy factors, is seen as a supportive element for gold prices, contributing to the bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive market indicators for gold, "smart money" is reportedly still taking a bearish stance, raising questions about market sentiment and future price movements [1] - The closing price today is expected to determine the ongoing battle between bullish and bearish positions in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth of the ChiNext 50 ETF managed by Harvest, with a notable increase in both scale and turnover, indicating strong investor interest and market performance [2][5] - As of June 23, the average daily trading volume of the ChiNext 50 ETF over the past year was 31.93 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.4% on a specific trading day [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF has seen a scale increase of 247 million yuan in the last three months, ranking first among comparable funds, and a share increase of 26.5 million shares, also leading in its category [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext 50 Index as of May 30, 2025, include Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, and Huichuan Technology, collectively accounting for 65.6% of the index [2] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Ningde Times at 25.88%, Dongfang Wealth at 11.23%, and Huichuan Technology at 5.08%, among others [4] - The overall economic environment is showing stability and progress, with the industrial added value in May increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, reflecting positive economic trends [4] Group 3 - The market outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests limited short-term upward momentum due to fundamental expectations, but a weaker dollar trend and supportive capital market policies may drive A-share market growth [5] - Key catalysts for market upward movement include global fundamental improvements, domestic policy implementation, and the development of emerging industries [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider the ChiNext 50 ETF Harvest linked fund (023429) to capitalize on these investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 0.9% and other indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropping more than 1% as of June 19 [1] - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as energy equipment and oil and gas are showing resilience and strength [2] - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities suggest that after recent market fluctuations, risks are gradually being released, and the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation, advocating for a "barbell strategy" in asset allocation [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates that the weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and overall improvement in liquidity conditions in the second half of the year may lead to an upward shift in the A-share market's oscillation center [2] - The global fundamental improvement and the implementation of domestic incremental policies, along with the development of emerging industries, are expected to act as key catalysts for market growth [2]

Market Overview - On May 19, US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 0.32%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively [3] - Major US tech stocks mostly increased, although the Wind US Tech Seven Index fell by 0.09%. Notable individual stock movements included Microsoft rising over 1%, while Apple and Tesla fell by over 1% and 2% respectively [5][6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining by 0.17%. Among Chinese stocks, Donis rose over 19% and Hesai Technology increased by over 10% [5] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.41% to $3232.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising by 0.44% to $32.495 per ounce [9] - As of May 20, gold and silver futures showed slight declines [9] Oil Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with ICE Brent crude rising by 0.11% and NYMEX WTI crude increasing by 0.08% [11][12] US Treasury Yields - The 30-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5% during trading on May 19, influenced by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which also affected US stock index futures. The 10-year Treasury yield also crossed 4.5% [14]