2025 年 09 月 30 日 企业生产积极性明显提升，高技术产业领先 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8，环比继续回升 0.4；非制造业 PMI 为 50.0，环比下降 0.3；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6，环比上 升 0.1。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升提升 1.1 至 51.9，为近 6 个月高点。新订 单指数提升 0.2 至 49.7，其中新出口订单提升 0.6 至 47.8。 企业生产经营活动积极性明显提升：进口指标回升 0.1 至 48.1；原材料库存回升 0.5 至 48.5；生产回升带动采购量大 幅回升 1.2 至 51.6。 从行业看，从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船 舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 54.0， 产需释放较快；木材加工及家具、石油煤炭及其他燃料加 工、非金属矿物制品等行业产需指数低于临界点。 企业盈利持续承压,供大于求的问题仍然比较突出。原材料购 进 ...

Core Points - The first China International Consumer Products Expo has announced its initial procurement matchmaking and market-oriented activities, with a total of 11 procurement matchmaking events and 11 market-oriented events scheduled [2][3]. Group 1: Procurement Matchmaking Activities - The first batch of 11 procurement matchmaking activities includes: - Xinjiang's promotion meeting for inland and border opening - Zhejiang Free Trade Zone and multinational company matchmaking - Shenzhen International Brand Resource Matchmaking - Guangxi Regional Consumer Center City Matchmaking - Chongqing Economic and Trade Matchmaking - Sanya Central Business District Enterprise Matchmaking - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China "Hainan Free Trade Port Investment and Trade Matchmaking" - Agricultural Bank of China Enterprise Matchmaking Salon - Agricultural Bank of China Wealth Management Matchmaking - Bank of China Private Enjoyment Club - China Construction Bank Enterprise Matchmaking Salon - These activities will take place on May 7 and May 8 [3]. Group 2: Market-oriented Activities - The first batch of 11 market-oriented activities includes: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China "Great Finance, Great Consumption, Great Livelihood" Summit Forum - Agricultural Bank of China Service for Hainan Free Trade Port and Cross-border Finance Forum - Bank of China: Hainan Free Trade Port Construction and Green Finance Development Forum - China Construction Bank Private Banking Client Free Trade Business Opportunities Forum - "Promoting Consumption Reflow and Welcoming New Opportunities for Opening Up" (Overseas Chinese Business Exchange Meeting) - China Consumer Exhibition Innovation Development Conference - Seminar on How the New Technology Revolution Empowers the Consumer Goods Industry - Food and Beverage Technology Innovation Development Summit and the 6th China Business Development Forum - 2021 Hainan High-end Consumer Goods Development Summit - Sustainable Consumption Seminar and Global Sustainable Consumption Initiative Launch - China Consumer Economy Figures Ceremony - These activities will be held from May 7 to May 9 [4].

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]