有色金属日报 2025-8-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价先抑后扬，伦铜收涨 0.5%至 9809 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79110 元/吨。产业层面，上 周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.04 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 8.2 万吨，LME 库存微增至 15.6 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.4 至 24.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.6 ...

张尧浠：贸易局势缓和、金价维持震荡回踩支撑看涨 上交易日周四(7月24日)：国际黄金再度回落收跌，技术上的横向阻力回落压力，以及全球贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象继续抑制了对避险资产的需求；但目前 也仍运行在中轨和60日均线上方，且也处于震荡看涨三角形态趋势之中，暗示后市方向仍是向上突破不变，那么，一时的回落或者是回踩支撑，也仍是看涨 入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3388.15美元/盎司，先行短暂震荡走强，录得日内高点3393.15美元，之后则遇阻回落，持续走低，于美盘初录得日内低点 3351.30美元，最后止跌反弹回升，一度触及3377美元，但仍遇阻偏弱运行，最终收于3368.39美元，日振幅41.85美元，收跌19.76美元，跌幅0.58%。 展望今日周五(7月25日)：国际黄金开盘继续先行窄幅波动，但下方支撑强劲，且仍保持着近期的回升趋势，以及震荡趋势之内，故此，也暗示下方空间有 限，60日均线及上升趋势线支撑位置，也仍是入场看涨的机会。 美元指数，日图走势昨日止跌收涨，对金价产生利空压力，但仍处于回落趋势的压力中，周图也受到5-10周均线阻力，布林带暂仍偏向开口向下延伸的预 期，而会在方向上，利好金 ...

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock index futures have increased their gains to intraday highs as Treasury Secretary Yellen indicates a de-escalation in trade tensions [1] Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures are showing significant upward movement, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments on easing trade tensions are contributing to the bullish outlook in the market [1]

期货热点追踪 大商所铁矿石期货价格触及一周高点，贸易局势缓和激发市场情绪，铁矿石库存续创14个月新低，后续 价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade situation appears to be easing, while the economy still faces shallow and short recession risks [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's council member Martins Kazaks commented on the current trade dynamics [1] - There is an indication that the economic outlook remains fragile, with potential for a brief recession [1]

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citigroup, have delayed their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to December, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding monetary policy adjustments [3][8] - The latest interest rate swap contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates by approximately 55 basis points this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points, showcasing a cautious market outlook on economic conditions [4][8] Group 2 - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost economic growth by enhancing business confidence and promoting investment and consumption, which has reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [5][8] - Concerns remain regarding inflationary pressures due to tariff policies, as indicated by Federal Reserve Governor Kugler, suggesting that even with improved trade relations, inflation could rise and impact the Fed's decision-making on rate cuts [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level trade talks between China and the United States have led to a consensus to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, easing global trade tensions and boosting market sentiment [1]. Market Summary Stock Market - US stock futures are collectively down, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.22%, S&P 500 futures down 0.30%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.41% [9]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.83%, marking its 13th consecutive day of gains and reaching its highest level since August 2009 [2][9]. - The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.47%, while the Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 1.81% [8][9]. - Conversely, the Indian SENSEX index fell by 0.84%, indicating a pause in its upward trend [9]. Bond Market - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond remained stable at 4.458% [4]. Currency Market - The US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen, down 0.35% to 147.84, after a significant overnight surge of 2% [5][8]. - The US dollar index decreased by 0.22%, now at 101.56 [8]. Commodity Market - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, with a daily gain of 0.61%, reaching $3,254 per ounce [6][12].

贸易局势缓和预期打压黄金价格，但印巴冲突升级，避险需求仍是黄金后市的最大支撑？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

此外，美元兑一篮子货币小幅反弹，日内指数上涨至99.08，进一步压制金价。虽然美元前一交易日因 避险需求下滑而大幅走低，但技术性反弹和部分避险资金回流支撑了短期美元需求。 摘要周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时 缓解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时缓 解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 【要闻速递】 亚洲大国方面近日决定豁免部分美国商品关税，而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）则表 示，未来的谈判"取决于亚洲大国是否愿意采取实质行动"，暗示美方姿态有所缓和。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 三菱日联的Lee Hardman在一份报告中表示，即使日本央行在周四的会议上对进一步加息持谨慎态度， 日元仍有升值空间。鉴于美国加征关税，预计日本央行将下调今年的经济增长和核心通胀预期。 据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为91.1%，降息25个基点的概率为8.9%。美联储 到 ...