1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, aluminum may further rise, casting aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices, lead and zinc will run strongly in the short - term but with limited upside, tin will be in a tight - balance state and prices are expected to be strong, nickel should be observed in the short - term, and stainless steel will maintain a weak trend [2][3][6][10][13][15][17][20][30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's expected reopening and policy easing expectations pushed up precious metals, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused copper prices to fall back after rising. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.53% to $10,897/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87,410 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained flat, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. Although some copper mines have resumed production, the supply of copper mines remains tight, and refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 10,820 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong but fell back after rising due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $2,886/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,950 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions increased significantly, and domestic inventories changed slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined, and the market receiving atmosphere was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns, and domestic inventories are still low. Against the background of the expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Pay attention to the support of domestic inventories for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,820 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices strengthened, with the main AD2601 contract rising 0.97% to 21,245 yuan/ton. Positions increased, and the volume of transactions expanded. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [9]. - **Strategy View**: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, while the demand - side performance is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 1.26% to 17,664 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 127,400 lots. LME lead 3S rose to $2,072.5/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 24,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 226,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy View**: The smelting profit of primary and recycled lead is good, and the smelter's operating rate is relatively high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the output of lead ingots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. LME lead has continued to reduce inventory, and the price difference between months has strengthened. The tightening of the near - end and the shortage of raw materials push lead prices to run strongly. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.05% to 22,704 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 227,400 lots. LME zinc 3S fell to $3,065.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 70,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 35,300 tons. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14]. - **Strategy View**: The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, the profit of zinc smelting was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. Some short - position holders of SHFE zinc turned to net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting operations and some zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside of zinc prices in the surplus cycle is relatively limited [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 298,050 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures decreased by 126 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose to 279,000 yuan/ton. After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded but was still at a historical low due to the shortage of tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State was approved, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in October showed a slight recovery [16]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The operating range of domestic main contract is 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices fluctuated and fell, with the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 118,710 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable and strong, while the price of nickel iron accelerated to decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: Recently, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the weak nickel iron price drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it is difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the medium - and long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. If the decline of nickel prices is sufficient (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 85,843 yuan, down 0.23%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24%. The closing price of LC2601 contract was 86,580 yuan, up 0.05%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [22]. - **Strategy View**: The demand has reached a new high, and the spot is strong. Lithium carbonate fluctuates at a high level. As the peak season is in the middle and late stages, the continuity of downstream raw material demand may be limited. If there is no continuous driving force, pay attention to the selling pressure at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the changes in the equity market atmosphere. The operating range of LC2601 contract is 84,000 - 89,200 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,842 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions increased by 10,000 to 559,000 lots. The spot price in Shandong was 2,780 yuan/ton, at a discount of 7 yuan/ton to the 12 - contract. The FOB price in Australia remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was - 44 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 253,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The CIF prices of ore in Guinea and Australia remained stable [26]. - **Strategy View**: The shipment of overseas ore will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthened. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,425 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The unilateral positions increased by 12,203 to 205,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,566 to 72,091 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.034 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market continues to show a weak and fluctuating trend, mainly affected by the double pressure of oversupply and weak demand. Although the production schedule of steel mills in November has shrunk slightly, the overall output is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. Terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume in the trading link is continuously low, and the market activity is not high. The inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage is gradually released, and the inventory - reduction speed slows down, further strengthening the market's wait - and - see sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market has been boosted by the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate with an upward bias [2][3]. - Overseas aluminum plant closures or production cuts have raised supply concerns. Against the backdrop of expected global trade tension easing and the Fed's interest - rate cut, supply - side disruptions and improved domestic export expectations may drive aluminum prices higher [5][6]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy still has strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [9][10]. - Lead prices are expected to run stronger in the short term due to the tightening of the nearby supply and demand situation. The long - short positions of SHFE lead are relatively concentrated, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12][13]. - The decline in zinc smelting production and some zinc ingot exports have tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run stronger in the short term, but the upside space is relatively limited in the surplus cycle [14][15]. - The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [16][17]. - In the short term, refined nickel inventory pressure is still significant, and nickel - iron prices remain weak, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions gradually under certain conditions [19][20]. - The high - growth demand for power and energy - storage batteries has led to a continuous shortage of lithium carbonate and accelerated inventory depletion. However, as the peak season enters the middle and late stages, attention should be paid to the high - level selling pressure [22][23]. - The price of alumina is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26][27]. - The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and volatile trend, affected by over - supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [29][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation procedure, and the US government is expected to reopen, leading to a significant rebound in copper prices. LME copper 3M contract closed up 1.68% at $10,874/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 86,500 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 375 to 136,275 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.7 tons compared to last Thursday [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions have boosted market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate with an upward bias. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,000 - 87,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10,750 - $11,000/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - Aluminum prices continued to strengthen with a positive sentiment. LME aluminum closed up 0.65% at $2,880/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,675 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.5 tons compared to last Thursday [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Overseas supply concerns and the expected improvement in domestic exports may drive aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,580 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2,860 - $2,920/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward. The main AD2512 contract closed up 0.48% at 21,030 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the trading was light [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [10]. Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index closed up 0.42% at 17,502 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S rose by 20 to $2,054/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 3.39 tons [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply of lead is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The long - short positions of SHFE lead are relatively concentrated, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.21% at 22,690 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose by 22.5 to $3,078/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 15.96 tons [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - The decline in zinc smelting production and some zinc ingot exports have tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run stronger in the short term, but the upside space is relatively limited in the surplus cycle [15]. Tin Market Information - On November 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract operating range is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is $35,500 - $37,500/ton [17]. Nickel Market Information - On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. The price of nickel - iron remained weak [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and nickel - iron prices are weak, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions gradually under certain conditions. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 84,669 yuan, up 5.01% from the previous day. The LC2601 contract closed at 87,240 yuan, up 6.00% from the previous day [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - The high - growth demand for power and energy - storage batteries has led to a continuous shortage of lithium carbonate and accelerated inventory depletion. However, as the peak season enters the middle and late stages, attention should be paid to the high - level selling pressure. The operating range of the LC2601 contract is 84,500 - 89,800 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina Market Information - On November 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.61% to 2,846 yuan/ton. The import loss was 45 yuan/ton [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price of alumina is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,605 yuan/ton, up 0.32%. The social inventory decreased to 103.40 tons, with a 0.29% month - on - month increase [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and volatile trend, affected by over - supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the US ADP employment data has alleviated market concerns about economic weakness. Coupled with the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that the sentiment will still be supported. The approval of copper ore exports by an Indonesian mining company has somewhat alleviated the tight supply expectation in the mining end, but the tight pattern remains unchanged. The supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by supply - side disturbances and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly supported by cost and supply - side policy adjustments. Lead and zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to positive macro - events and inventory changes. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a tight - balance state. Nickel prices are under short - term inventory pressure but may be supported in the long - term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed due to cost and supply - side factors. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak [2][3][5]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.79% to $10,733/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 133,975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 43,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was active. The inventory in Guangdong decreased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 3,420 yuan/ton, slightly widening [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the improvement of the US ADP employment data, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment is expected to be supported. The supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 85,500 - 86,800 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,600 - 10,850/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum closed down 0.7% at $2,845/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,450 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest decreased by 15,000 to 650,000 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The aluminum rod processing fee increased, but the trading atmosphere was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 550,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad increased in October. With the expansion of smelting profits, the aluminum rod processing fee increased slightly, and the aluminum water ratio rebounded. The export expectation of aluminum products is good. Against the background of trade tension easing and low inventory, supply - side disturbances are expected to support aluminum prices, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,350 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,820 - 2,880/ton [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.45% to 20,795 yuan/ton. The weighted contract open interest slightly increased to 27,700 lots, and the trading volume was 8,000 lots. The warehouse receipts increased by 700 to 55,500 tons. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased by 100 to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the downstream receiving willingness was average [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy still provides strong support, and the supply is tight due to policy adjustments in the production end, so the price support is strong [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.37% to 17,483 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead rose to $2,021.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,700 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 28,900 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore continued to decline, the operating rate of primary smelters remained high, and the inventory of primary lead plants increased. The inventory of scrap batteries increased slightly, and the weekly production of recycled lead ingots increased. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises declined, and the de - stocking of domestic lead ingot inventory slowed down, but the absolute level was still low. With positive macro - events, the SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.07% to 22,668 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc fell to $3,070.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,500 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 68,400 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 161,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee decreased again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit declined. The monthly output of zinc ingots decreased. Downstream demand remained stable, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. With positive macro - events, the SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the surplus cycle [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 5, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 282,090 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 276 tons to 5,976 tons. The supply of tin ore was still tight, and the production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces recovered but remained at a low level. The import of tin concentrate in September 2025 decreased significantly. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin is $35,500 - 37,500/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On November 5, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The nickel ore price was stable and slightly strong. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and the nickel iron price is weak, dragging down the nickel price. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough or with high risk preference. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 78,327 yuan, down 0.63%. The LC2601 contract closed at 79,140 yuan, up 0.74% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The convergence of the lithium carbonate price amplitude, the uncertainty of the supply recovery at the mining end, and the demand support at the bottom. It is expected that the capital game will return to caution, and the price will fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2601 contract is 77,600 - 80,600 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 5, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2,791 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas FOB price remained at $316/ton, and the import loss was 7 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,100 tons to 251,900 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On November 5, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,535 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased or remained stable. The raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is weak, with the price of the 316L variety dropping significantly. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term market will remain weak, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and terminal demand [24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in rebar prices is primarily driven by positive macroeconomic factors, supply constraints due to production limits, and strong raw material costs, although the sustainability of this price increase is uncertain due to rising supply and weak demand [1][2][8]. Supply and Production - Rebar supply is on the rise, with weekly production reaching 2.1259 million tons as of October 31, an increase of 55,700 tons from the end of September [2]. - The production increase is mainly attributed to long-process steel mills, which have raised their output to 1.8308 million tons, a cumulative increase of 83,500 tons over the past two weeks [2]. - Short-process steel mills are maintaining stable production levels, with a weekly output of 295,100 tons, up 37,000 tons from the end of the month [2]. - Despite the production increase, the overall supply pressure is growing due to high inventory levels, with total rebar inventory at 6.0252 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6524 million tons or 37.79% [5]. Demand and Market Conditions - Rebar demand has shown seasonal improvement but remains weak, with weekly demand at 2.3219 million tons, down 88,800 tons from pre-holiday levels [7]. - Total rebar demand for October was 9.2727 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 136,010 tons or 12.79% [7]. - Daily transaction volumes for rebar have also declined, averaging 101,300 tons in October, down 1.13% month-on-month and 16.51% year-on-year [7]. - Although some downstream indicators like cement and concrete shipments have improved, the overall demand outlook remains weak due to ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and declining infrastructure investment [7]. Price Trends - Rebar futures prices experienced volatility, dropping to a low of 3,021 yuan per ton before rebounding to a high of 3,143 yuan per ton due to improved market sentiment [3]. - The current price movements are influenced by strong cost support from raw materials, but the fundamental market conditions do not indicate a substantial improvement, leading to concerns about the sustainability of price increases [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term optimistic sentiment from the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut has been realized, but the easing of trade situation and the loose direction of the Fed's monetary policy remain unchanged. Copper prices are expected to be supported by the tight supply of refined copper [3]. - The global trade situation has eased, and with disturbances in the overseas supply side, aluminum prices have reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [5][7]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices [10]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is still positive. Lead and zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space for zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [14][16]. - Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner [19]. - The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices [21]. - The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations [24]. - The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing [27]. - The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic October official manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, and the offshore RMB depreciated, causing copper prices to fluctuate weakly. LME copper inventory decreased by 325 tons to 134,625 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 11,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The approval of copper exports by an Indonesian mining company has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight pattern remains. Refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference range for SHFE copper is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,750 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The easing of trade situation pushed up aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose 0.63% to 2,888 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,415 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased by 99,000 tons to 458,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the global trade situation and overseas supply disturbances, aluminum prices reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,850 - 2,920 dollars/ton [5][7]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The main AD2512 contract increased by 0.61% to 20,745 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 130 tons to 5,010 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices, despite the large delivery pressure of the 2511 contract [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.22% to 17,391 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 3.5 dollars to 2,018.5 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 2,790 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the production of primary and recycled lead has different trends. The overall inventory reduction of domestic lead ingots has slowed down, but the absolute level is still low. SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term [13][14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,372 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 22 dollars to 3,029 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 16,150 tons [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continues to decline, and the processing fee of zinc concentrate has decreased again. Domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited in the surplus cycle [16]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 2, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The national main tin ingot social inventory decreased by 45 tons to 7,698 tons [17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 dollars/ton [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The price of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, and the price of nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 31, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 81,869 yuan, down 1.44% from the previous trading day. The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate increased [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79,500 - 83,500 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 31, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.78% to 2,809 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price of Australia decreased, and the futures inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The spot price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The Russia-Ukraine crisis is easing [2]. - Silver: It is in a volatile rebound [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to LME inventories [2]. - Lead: Inventory is continuously decreasing, resulting in price increases [2]. - Tin: Focus on macro - economic impacts [2]. - Aluminum: The price center is moving up; Alumina is in bottom - range oscillation; Cast aluminum alloy has upward potential [2]. - Nickel: It shows short - term narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, but cost limits the downside space [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold,沪金2512 closed at 952.56 with a daily decline of 4.17%, and its night - session price was 934.72 with a decline of 1.56%. For silver,沪银2512 closed at 11404 with a daily decline of 3.42%, and its night - session price was 11331 with a gain of 0.04%. Trading volumes and open interests of various contracts also changed to different extents [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Gold and silver inventories in different markets changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as cross - period spreads and basis spreads [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85400 with a daily gain of 0.02%, and its night - session price was 86730 with a gain of 1.56%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铜 and伦铜3M also changed [9]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in沪铜 and伦铜 changed, and various spreads such as LME copper spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [9]. - **Industry News**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium next year. China's copper import and export data in September also changed [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22345 with a daily gain of 1.57%, and伦锌3M closed at 3019.5 with a gain of 0.87%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锌 and伦锌 also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Zinc inventories in沪锌 and LME changed, and various spreads such as LME zinc spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17565 with a daily gain of 2.27%, and伦铅3M closed at 1995 with a gain of 0.10%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铅 and伦铅 also changed [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Lead inventories in沪铅 and LME decreased, and various spreads such as LME lead spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 was 281680 with a daily gain of 0.29%, and伦锡3M closed at 35475 with a gain of 0.50%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锡 and伦锡 also changed [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Tin inventories in沪锡 and伦锡 changed, and various spreads such as LME tin spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME aluminum prices changed, and trading volumes and open interests also had different trends. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, prices, trading volumes, and open interests also changed [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Aluminum inventories in different markets changed, and various spreads such as LME aluminum spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [23]. - **Industry News**: China will focus on building a modern industrial system, and the US established a critical minerals fund [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are 1, indicating a bullish outlook; Alumina trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪镍主力 was 121380, and that of stainless steel主力 was 12765. Trading volumes and open interests of沪镍 and stainless steel also changed [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [28].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped over 3% after reaching a historical high of over $4,300 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and a more moderate stance from U.S. President Trump [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.1%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers [1] - Earlier in the trading session, gold prices were on track to achieve the largest weekly gain since the 2008 financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers' collapse [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Tai Wong, an independent metal trader, noted that Trump's more moderate tone since initially announcing a 100% tariff has cooled precious metal trading [1] - Suki Cooper, global head of commodity research at Standard Chartered Bank, projected an average gold price of $4,488 by 2026, indicating further upward risks due to broader structural factors [1] Group 3: Investment Drivers - Gold has surged over 62% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, capital outflows from the dollar, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds [1] - Expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have also supported this non-yielding asset [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the dovish remarks from the Fed Chairman have increased the probability of a rate cut in September, and the easing of overseas trade tensions and the strong performance of the global equity market have created a positive sentiment. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and prices are expected to show different trends, with some likely to rise, some to oscillate, and some facing both upward and downward risks [1][3][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. LME copper closed up 0.5% at $9,809 per ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79,110 yuan per ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.5 to 8.2 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 0.4 to 24.6 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.6 tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot import window opened, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The LME market's Cash/3M discount narrowed to $78.4 per ton, and the domestic Shanghai area's spot premium over futures was 150 yuan per ton. The scrap copper substitution advantage remained low, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline, while that of refined copper rod enterprises increased [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to the positive sentiment and the tight supply of copper raw materials [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: Last Friday, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $2,622 per ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,755 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The weighted contract's open interest of SHFE aluminum increased by 11,000 to 575,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 to 57,000 tons. Domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 436,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory remained flat at 88,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 479,000 tons [3]. - **Market**: The spot premium in the East China region over futures was 30 yuan per ton, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices, with stable market transactions [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the positive sentiment and the transition of downstream from the off - season to the peak season. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 20,600 - 20,900 yuan per ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is 2,590 - 2,650 dollars per ton [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of Friday afternoon, the AD2511 contract closed up 0.25% at 20,175 yuan per ton. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased by 25 yuan per ton to about 20,025 yuan per ton, and the average price of imported ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,770 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingots slightly increased to 31,500 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The downstream of casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. Prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [4]. Lead - **Price**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.20% at 16,782 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose $3 to $1,974.5 per ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 58,900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 63,200 tons. LME lead inventory was 279,600 tons, and the LME lead cancellation warrant was 54,100 tons [6]. - **Industry News**: Near the National Day parade, the recycling business of waste lead - acid batteries in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and nearby areas slowed down, and some smelting enterprises' production decreased due to environmental protection measures [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the increase in the operating rate of primary enterprises and the positive sentiment of commodities support the lead price. In the medium term, terminal consumption pressure remains high, and there is still a risk of decline [6]. Zinc - **Price**: Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.13% at 22,269 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $1.5 to $2,775 per ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 32,800 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 132,900 tons. LME zinc inventory was 69,400 tons, and the LME zinc cancellation warrant was 26,500 tons [7][8]. - **Industry News**: Near the National Day parade, Tianjin restricted transportation vehicles and implemented production restrictions on galvanizing enterprises, which are expected to end on September 4 [8]. - **Outlook**: The mid - term industry surplus situation remains unchanged, but the dovish remarks from the Fed have strengthened the support for zinc prices, and there is unlikely to be a large decline in the short term [8]. Tin - **Price**: Last week, tin prices oscillated. On Friday, the SHFE tin's main contract closed at 268,440 yuan per ton, up 0.52% from the previous day [10]. - **Supply**: Myanmar's resumption of production is slow, and the import of tin concentrates in July decreased significantly. The operating rate of domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low, at 59.64% [10]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electronic products is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic welding strips has declined. Downstream enterprises have low inventory levels and mainly purchase on - demand [10]. - **Inventory**: Last week, consumers picked up goods to replenish inventory, and the social inventory of tin ingots decreased significantly. On August 22, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets was 9,508 tons, a decrease of 884 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - **Outlook**: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic tin price operating range expected to be 250,000 - 275,000 yuan per ton and the LME tin price operating range expected to be $31,000 - $34,000 per ton [10]. Nickel - **Price**: Last week, nickel prices continued to oscillate [11]. - **Supply**: The price of nickel ore is weak. The supply of fire - refined nickel ore has increased, and the supply of wet - refined nickel ore is stable. The supply of intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [11][12]. - **Demand**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, which restricts the price of nickel iron. Some electric nickel and nickel sulfate production enterprises still have purchasing demand for intermediate products [11][12]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the social inventory of refined nickel was 40,900 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive, but the refined nickel supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the weak stainless steel demand limits the upward space. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the SHFE nickel's main contract price operating range expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton and the LME nickel 3M contract operating range expected to be $14,500 - $16,500 per ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 80,332 yuan, down 1.83% from the previous trading day. The LC2511 contract closed at 78,960 yuan, down 4.59% from the previous day [14]. - **Market**: The previous sentiment fluctuation was greater than the actual change in fundamentals. The bullish sentiment cooled last week, and the market callback was large. The reduction in production at Jianxiaowo has been realized, and SQM has increased the annual output of the Holland mine [14]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of the lithium market has improved, and the support level of lithium prices has moved up. Attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news. The operating range of the LC2511 contract on the GZEE is expected to be 74,000 - 81,000 yuan per ton [14]. Alumina - **Price**: On August 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.45% to 3,131 yuan per ton, and the unilateral trading open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 3.63 million lots [16]. - **Market**: The Shandong spot price was 3,200 yuan per ton, with a premium of 44 yuan per ton over the 09 contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $370 per ton, and the import window was closed [16]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the futures warehouse receipts were 77,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous day [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, and the Fed's dovish remarks are expected to drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. The downward space of alumina futures prices is limited after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to be 3,100 - 3,500 yuan per ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Guinea's ore policies [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: On Friday afternoon, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,750 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends [19]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 101,925 tons, a decrease of 16,715 tons from the previous day, and the social inventory increased by 1.19% to 1.0917 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.20% [19]. - **Market**: The decline was mainly due to the low - price selling of some arbitrage institutions, which increased the sales pressure in the spot market. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was light [19]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although low - price resources still impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support the price, and with the support of rigid demand, the stainless steel price is expected to continue to oscillate [19].

Group 1 - Global trade optimism boosts investor confidence, leading to higher openings in Asia-Pacific markets [1] - The Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, rising 1.53% to 42,461.02, surpassing the previous record set in July last year [1] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index hit an August high, increasing nearly 1% to 3,237.45 [6] Group 2 - Sharp's stock surged nearly 8%, while Advantest rose approximately 6.4%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [3] - Export-oriented automotive companies, represented by Toyota and Honda, saw nearly 2% gains [5] Group 3 - The Australian market is under close observation, with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [10] - The S&P/ASX 200 index reached a historical high of 8,867.60 during trading, although it later retreated to a gain of 0.13% at 8,856.30 [10] Group 4 - The extension of the tariff suspension between China and the U.S. alleviated trade concerns, leading to a temporary rise in oil prices [12] - Brent crude futures increased by 0.39% to $66.89 per barrel, while WTI crude futures rose by 0.34% to $64.18 [12]