瑞霆狗（RatingDog）宣布与标普全球达成协议，获得“标普全球中国PMI”（原财新PMI）的独家冠名权，指数将正式更名为“RatingDog中国PMI”。更名后的指数将继续于每月首个工作日（制造业PMI）和第三个工作日（服务业PMI）发布。🗒️Ratingdog第一大股东为中证信用，由东吴证券、国泰君安、广发证券、安信证券等35家机构合资成立。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国7月标普全球制造业PMI录得49.5，预期50.4，前值50.4。(财新7月起终止对标普中国PMI的冠名)标普全球市场：中国制造业自2023年10月后第二次录得产量下降，调查企业反映新订单增速放缓，厂商相应减产。厂商反映外需疲软，新出口订单已连续4个月收缩，且较6月加剧。https://t.co/4eWCWIpcNz https://t.co/2px2vIDPvj ...

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

6月10日上午，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会揭开序幕。申万宏源证券执委会成员、申万宏源研 究董事长周海晨在主论坛致开幕辞，申万宏源研究总经理王胜主持主论坛。 本次会议以"沧海横流方显英雄本色"为主题，设置了1场主论坛及12个分论坛，涵盖资产配置、人工 智能与芯片、金融创新、投行赋能硬核科技、能源与材料、金融地产、高端制造、新消费、量化、港 股等市场关注焦点。近500家上市公司高管与2200余名投资者齐聚一堂，会议期间将进行700余场线下 交流。 周海晨：全球去美元化加速 中国科技力量崛起 申万宏源证券执委会成员、研究所董事长周海晨在致辞时表示，当前正处在全球政治经济格局重塑的 关键时点。受美国政策稳定性下降和美国经济增长承压的双重影响，去美元化成为当前全球投资者关 注的焦点，国际资本快速从美国流向其它市场，其中德国、中国香港市场成为跨境资金净流入的主要 区域。年初以来，恒生科技指数已累计上涨超20%，是全球表现最强劲的指数之一。2020年以来全球 资本加速向美国市场聚集的趋势正呈现出明显的扭转态势。 聚焦国内，周海晨认为，当前正处在"十四五"规划收官和"十五五"规划制定的重要衔接点，经济增长 动能持续夯 ...

6月10日上午，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会揭开序幕。申万宏源证券执委会成员、申万宏源研 究董事长周海晨在主论坛致开幕辞，申万宏源研究总经理王胜主持主论坛。 本次会议以"沧海横流方显英雄本色"为主题，设置了1场主论坛及12个分论坛，涵盖资产配置、人工 智能与芯片、金融创新、投行赋能硬核科技、能源与材料、金融地产、高端制造、新消费、量化、港 股等市场关注焦点。近500家上市公司高管与2200余名投资者齐聚一堂，会议期间将进行700余场线下 交流。 周海晨：全球去美元化加速 中国科技力量崛起 申万宏源证券执委会成员、研究所董事长周海晨在致辞时表示，当前正处在全球政治经济格局重塑的 关键时点。受美国政策稳定性下降和美国经济增长承压的双重影响，去美元化成为当前全球投资者关 注的焦点，国际资本快速从美国流向其它市场，其中德国、中国香港市场成为跨境资金净流入的主要 区域。年初以来，恒生科技指数已累计上涨超20%，是全球表现最强劲的指数之一。2020年以来全球 资本加速向美国市场聚集的趋势正呈现出明显的扭转态势。 赵伟表示，转型新阶段的政策框架，2024年底已现雏形，更注重高质量发展，更聚焦：高水平开 放、"双循环" ...

傅静涛预计，本轮潜在牛市，最终演绎出第一个"中国版慢牛"。时间已经是市场的朋友，2026年好于2025年， 牛市主要区间在2026年—2027年。2026年开始，供需格局将改善，市场赚钱效应有望进一步累积。 6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举行。会上，申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、申万宏源研 究所A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等分享了宏观和市场的最新观点。 宏观方面，赵伟表示，2025年下半年关注"反内卷""服务业"等关键词。支撑经济运行的主要宏观指标结构上或 迎来"强弱转换"。伴随"抢出口"与设备自然更新周期结束、"反内卷"政策的加码，前期表现强劲的制造业，下 半年或面临一定下行压力。前期表现较弱的服务业投资和消费，上半年已出现积极改善。下半年政策有望进一 步加码，服务业修复有望适度对冲制造业压力。 策略方面，傅静涛表示，A 股市场具备演绎牛市级别行情的潜力。居民"资产荒"愈演愈烈，2025年是存款到期 再配置高峰期；A 股投融资功能建设，公司治理水平提升、股东回报改善，将抬升A股回报中枢；此外，中国 企业"反内卷"将抬升企业盈利。一个历史级别的供给出清周期正在到来。 产业蜕变已成"星火燎原"之势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the economic transformation in China has entered a new phase, characterized by a decline in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, and a shift towards new consumption patterns and service-oriented growth [3][4] - The conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan brought together executives from nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest and engagement in the capital markets [1] - The chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhao Wei, highlighted that the traditional policy framework is becoming less effective, necessitating a comprehensive policy innovation to support the new economic phase [3] Group 2 - Zhao Wei noted that new consumption forms, such as self-care and experiential consumption, have emerged significantly over the past two years, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - The economic indicators suggest a "bottoming out" of short-term consumer confidence, with a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption approaching [3] - The focus of economic policy is expected to shift from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" by the end of 2024, with an emphasis on supporting the service sector as a key area for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak transition" in the second half of 2025, with manufacturing facing potential downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to play a significant role in the structural reforms of the supply side, aiming for broader and more coordinated economic adjustments [4] - Increased support for the service sector is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate pressures from the manufacturing sector and to unleash demand potential [4]

6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举行。会上，申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、申万宏源研 究所A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等分享了宏观和市场的最新观点。 宏观方面，赵伟表示，2025年下半年关注"反内卷""服务业"等关键词。支撑经济运行的主要宏观指标结构上或 迎来"强弱转换"。伴随"抢出口"与设备自然更新周期结束、"反内卷"政策的加码，前期表现强劲的制造业，下 半年或面临一定下行压力。前期表现较弱的服务业投资和消费，上半年已出现积极改善。下半年政策有望进一 步加码，服务业修复有望适度对冲制造业压力。 策略方面，傅静涛表示，A 股市场具备演绎牛市级别行情的潜力。居民"资产荒"愈演愈烈，2025年是存款到期 再配置高峰期；A 股投融资功能建设，公司治理水平提升、股东回报改善，将抬升A股回报中枢；此外，中国 企业"反内卷"将抬升企业盈利。一个历史级别的供给出清周期正在到来。 傅静涛预计，本轮潜在牛市，最终演绎出第一个"中国版慢牛"。时间已经是市场的朋友，2026年好于2025年， 牛市主要区间在2026年—2027年。2026年开始，供需格局将改善，市场赚钱效应有望进一步累积。 产业蜕变已成"星火燎原"之势 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The transformation of the Chinese economy has entered a new stage, with a comprehensive optimization of the policy framework since September 2024, opening up total policy space and enhancing the targeting of structural policies [1] - High-tech industries now account for 16.3% of the industrial sector, indicating a significant shift towards new economic drivers [1] - New consumption forms such as self-indulgent and experiential consumption are emerging, with indicators showing that short-term consumer confidence is stabilizing [1] Group 2: Key Themes for 2025 - Keywords to focus on in the second half of 2025 include "anti-involution" and "service industry," which are expected to play a crucial role in structural employment pressure and economic recovery [2] - The service industry, facing severe supply shortages, is anticipated to receive increased policy support to enhance quality supply and absorb structural employment pressure [2] - A structural shift in macroeconomic indicators is expected, with manufacturing potentially facing downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [2] Group 3: Market Strategy - The A-share market has the potential to enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation and improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [3] - The period from Q2 to Q3 2025 is likely to see the A-share market in a consolidation phase, with a more significant market rally expected in 2026 [3][4] - The upcoming bull market is characterized as a "Chinese-style slow bull," with a longer duration and potential for substantial returns from industry optimization and overseas breakthroughs [4] Group 4: Investment Focus - Key sectors for investment include domestic AI, embodied intelligence, and national defense, which are expected to become core industries in the structural bull market [4] - The primary market remains strong in areas such as software, hardware technology, and AI-related sectors like data centers and robotics [4] - New consumption trends in jewelry, IP toys, snacks, and beauty products are also highlighted as maintaining their growth narratives [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 Capital Market Summer Strategy Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the transition to high-quality economic development in China, focusing on technology innovation, industrial upgrading, and green transformation [1] - The conference featured discussions on various investment strategies and macroeconomic trends, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [1] Macroeconomic Perspective - The policy framework for the new transformation phase is taking shape, emphasizing high-quality development and sustainable practices, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [2] - New consumption trends, such as experiential and self-care spending, are emerging, indicating a shift in consumer confidence and preferences towards services [2] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market shows potential for a bull market, driven by increased equity allocation from residents and a peak in asset reallocation expected in 2025 [3] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are anticipated to enhance A-share returns, with a significant supply clearing cycle on the horizon [3] - Key investment opportunities identified include AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries, with a focus on high-cost performance themes in a volatile market [3] Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead in a potential bull market, serving as a crucial link in China's financial external circulation [4] - The trend of A-share representative assets listing in Hong Kong is becoming more common, with Hong Kong's internet sector positioned as a leader in the domestic AI industry [4] - High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong are attracting insurance capital, while the market is seen as a convergence point for domestic and foreign investments [4] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to exhibit two characteristics in the second half of the year: a return to pricing anchors and favorable conditions for testing the market from June to August [4]

■中国经济时报记者 张娜 周子勋 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，4月份我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 国家统计局5月19日公布的数据显示，与国内市场联系紧密的市场销售和服务业继续稳中有升。受国际市场影响较大的货物出口和工业生产保持总体稳 定。表明我国经济在复杂环境中展现出显著韧性。 4月经济延续回升向好态势 4月份，我国经济延续回升向好态势，社会消费品零售总额、服务业生产指数分别增长4.7%和5.9%，较一季度均提升0.1个百分点。出口增长7.5%，规模以 上工业增加值保持6.4%的稳定增速。 商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员彭波表示，虽然当前国内外经济形势依然严峻，但4月份多项数据充分表明中国经济展现出良好的韧性与潜力，尤 其是在创新驱动发展战略推动下，新兴产业快速发展，传统产业转型升级加快，为实现高质量发展目标奠定了坚实基础。下一阶段，需持续扩大内需、深 化产业升级、稳定外贸外资，推动经济向新向好态势进一步巩固，为全年高质量发展奠定基础。 受国内外环境复杂变化影响，4月份规上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等主要经济指标增速较3月份有所回落。国务院 ...