Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]