We're back on Morning Trade Live. Let's take a closer look now at credit card stocks. Visa reporting earnings after the closing bell this afternoon and Mastercard reports on Thursday.Those stocks are pretty close in performance over the course of the year. But if you take a look at this chart, Capital 1 and American Express are the outperformers in the space. Both of those names are up more than 20% in 2025.So let's go out inside out on Visa and credit card stocks. Joining us now is Steven Bigger, the direc ...

编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家吉-范德林德(Jee-A van der Linde)指出，家庭消费是2025年第二季度GDP 超预期增长的主因，而第三季度首份零售数据表明，经济仍高度依赖消费者韧性。 标准银行南非宏观经济研究部主管埃尔娜·穆尔曼(Elna Moolman)分析称，当前消费者获得多重有利因素 支撑：低通胀、利率下调、民众重获双账户退休储蓄提取权，以及公共部门新增就业岗位。这些因素有 效抵消了本年度预算未按通胀调整个人所得税起征点对家庭消费能力的负面影响。 但范德林德也警示，美国自8月7日起实施的30%进口关税，可能导致第三季度就业数据反映出更大经济 压力。在不确定性加剧的经济环境下，企业或被迫缩减、推迟招聘及投资计划，为后续零售增长蒙上阴 影。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 南非7月零售销售同比增长5.6% 中新网约翰内斯堡9月18日电 南非国家统计局(Stats SA)最新数据显示，受服装、综合零售及五金等品类 强势拉动，7月零售销售实现显著反弹，同比实际增长5.6%，不仅较6月1.6%的微弱增幅大幅提升，更 创下自4月 ...

Group 1 - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, express optimism about consumer resilience despite potential challenges from rising prices due to tariffs [1][2] - Walmart raised its full-year performance expectations based on strong sales momentum, while Home Depot reported that customer spending remains "very healthy" [1] - Target's sales are still declining year-over-year, but the performance is better than expected, indicating a mixed retail environment [1] Group 2 - Retailers are facing increased costs as new inventory is subject to higher tariffs, which may lead to price increases in the latter half of the year [2][3] - The impact of price increases is uncertain, as retailers have different strategies for passing on costs to consumers [2] - Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, seeking value through second-hand stores and private label products, indicating a shift in spending behavior [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year as retailers deplete pre-tariff inventory and pass on more costs to consumers [3][4] - The holiday shopping season is expected to be subdued due to rising essential goods prices, which will limit disposable income for budget-sensitive consumers [3]

Core Insights - The chief economist of ADP, Nela Richardson, indicates that hiring and compensation data suggest the economy is in a healthy state [1] - Employers are increasingly optimistic that consumers, as the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient [1] Summary by Categories Economic Health - Hiring and compensation data from ADP reflect a robust economic condition [1] Employer Sentiment - There is a growing optimism among employers regarding consumer resilience [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disconnect between strong second-quarter earnings reports and the muted stock market reactions, indicating that most positive news has already been priced in, leading to severe penalties for companies that fail to meet expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The second-quarter earnings season started strong, supported by consumer resilience, yet the stock market response has been relatively flat, suggesting that good news has been largely anticipated [1]. - Financial stocks reported an impressive earnings surprise rate of 94.4%, but stock prices did not reflect this performance due to prior expectations [1][4]. - Companies like Netflix and United Airlines reported strong metrics but saw their stock prices decline, with Netflix dropping over 5% despite exceeding expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Reactions - Current market conditions show that the penalty for missing earnings expectations is at a three-year high, indicating a low tolerance for errors when valuations are high [4]. - The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, approaching levels seen earlier in the year before market sentiment was affected by global tariff announcements [4]. - Companies that exceed both earnings and revenue expectations are rewarded at the highest level in a year, but overall market performance is not expected to be catalyzed by strong earnings alone [4]. Group 3: Consumer Resilience - The resilience of American consumers remains a focal point for investors, especially amid high inflation and interest rates [8][9]. - Recent retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase, surpassing most economists' expectations, indicating ongoing consumer strength [9]. - Companies like Delta Airlines and PepsiCo reported strong performances, with Delta noting a recovery in the travel sector and PepsiCo seeing improvements in North America [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The outlook for S&P 500 earnings has been significantly downgraded, with expected year-over-year profit growth now at 3.3%, down from an initial forecast of 9.5% [10]. - The key issue for S&P 500 companies is who will bear the costs of tariffs, which could impact future earnings [10]. - Investors are looking for strong performance guidance, as any earnings miss could lead to swift penalties in the current high-valuation environment [10].

Core Insights - The CFO of a major American bank highlighted that consumers continue to demonstrate resilience in their spending habits [1] Group 1 - The bank's CFO noted that consumer behavior remains strong despite economic uncertainties [1] - There is an ongoing trend of consumers maintaining their spending levels, which is a positive indicator for the economy [1] - The resilience shown by consumers may lead to sustained growth in various sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that consumers continue to demonstrate surprising resilience according to Citigroup's CFO Mason [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects a broader trend in consumer behavior, indicating that despite economic challenges, spending patterns remain stable [1] - This resilience may have implications for various sectors, particularly retail and consumer goods, as it suggests sustained demand [1] - The commentary from Citigroup's CFO highlights the importance of monitoring consumer sentiment and spending as key indicators for economic health [1]