Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - A-shares and commodities continue to rise. In the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - The dollar exchange rate rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, the dollar's weakness is difficult to reverse, and gold oscillates and accumulates momentum [6]. - The economic data released this week shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is better than expected, but the consumption growth rate in June declines, and investment has not yet exerted force [6]. - Non-ferrous metals are differentiated this week, with most experiencing corrections but overall remaining in a high-level oscillation [6]. - Black metals oscillate at a high level this week, but the rebound is not over [6]. - Nickel prices and stainless steel oscillate at a low level this week, and the market is still digesting inventory [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum operates at a high level, with the supply side providing strong support for prices [7]. - Alumina oscillates strongly in the short term and operates at a low level in the medium term [8]. - Aluminum alloy operates strongly in the short term and fluctuates within a range in the medium term [9]. - Finished steel prices oscillate strongly, and prices are expected to be strong from July to August [10]. Summaries by Category Macro Strategy - **Intraday View**: A-shares and commodities continue to rise; in the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Gold can be observed or a small amount of gold call options can be bought as the bottom position; hold the bought IO2509-C-3950; hold the sold CU2509-P-75000 position; hold RB2510 or HC2510 long positions or call options; reduce the protective put options while the nickel spot inventory decreases [6]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, factors such as the expanding fiscal deficit and debt, tariff shocks, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts make the dollar's weakness difficult to reverse [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High-level operation, with the operating range of 20300 - 20600; in the medium term, high-level operation, with the operating range of 19200 - 21000 [7]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508-P-19300 [7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply-side reform in 2017 set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity was 44.139 million tons, with limited room for capacity increase. The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [7]. Alumina - **Intraday View**: Oscillate strongly, with the operating range of 3050 - 3200; in the medium term, operate at a low level, with the operating range of 2700 - 3500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, 17 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into operation, with obvious supply pressure. The improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to drive an increase in alumina demand [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **Intraday View**: Operate strongly, with the operating range of 19800 - 20000; in the medium term, fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 19000 - 20300 [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [9]. - **Core Logic**: The current inventory is at a high level within the year, and the general rise in non-ferrous metals boosts the price of aluminum alloy [9]. Finished Steel (RB, HC) - **Intraday View**: Prices oscillate strongly; from July to August, prices are expected to be strong [10]. - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the bought in-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3000; continue to hold the sold out-of-the-money put options of rebar RB2510-P-2900; short the out-of-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3300 in the short term [10]. - **Core Logic**: The pressure on the raw material inventory of steel is expected to be marginally relieved after mid-July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and the production cost of steel to stabilize. The current explicit inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is low, and recent positive factors have boosted speculative sentiment [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is expected to remain high both in the short - term and medium - term. The supply capacity has limited room for growth, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is favorable for the aluminum price [1]. - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The price of steel is expected to be strong both in the short - term and from July to August. The supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and the speculative demand for steel will increase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 20,500 - 20,800 [1]. - **Medium - term View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Supply capacity is close to the upper limit set in 2017, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the automotive market is performing well [1]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Intraday View**: Prices are expected to run strongly [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Prices are expected to be strong from July to August [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the bought rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3000, exit the call option selling strategy, and hold the sold rebar RB2510 - P - 2900 [3]. - **Core Logic**: - Supply: The inventory pressure of steel raw materials will ease after mid - July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and the coal and coke prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Demand: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the plate demand is okay, and the speculative demand is expected to increase due to positive factors [4].