Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is occurring, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene price is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase slightly in June. The downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices undergo more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices due to seasonal factors. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in June. The near - term export orders are acceptable. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and production starts [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2520 to 2437, the South China spot price decreased from 2480 to 2448. The import profit decreased from 125 to 58, and the main contract basis decreased from 90 to 25. The MTO profit on the futures market decreased from - 1208 to - 1219 [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The daily changes on July 7 compared to the previous period were 0 for power coal futures, - 18 for Jiangsu spot, - 17 for South China spot, - 10 for Lunan converted to futures price, 0 for Southwest converted to futures price, 0 for Hebei converted to futures price, - 25 for Northwest converted to futures price, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for main contract basis, and 0 for MTO profit on the futures market [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price fluctuated between 7150 - 7200 and then dropped to 7175 on July 7. The two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71, and the warehouse receipts remained at 5831 on July 4 and 7 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were 0 for Northeast Asian ethylene, - 25 for North China LL, - 50 for East China LL, - 25 for East China LD, 0 for East China HD, 0 for LL in US dollars, 0 for LL in US Gulf, 0 for import profit, - 35 for the main futures contract, 30 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and 0 for warehouse receipts [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6630 to 6420, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7060 to 7030, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71. The warehouse receipts decreased from 7404 to 7232 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 130 for Shandong propylene, 0 for Northeast Asian propylene, - 40 for East China PP, - 30 for North China PP, - 50 for Shandong powder, - 10 for East China copolymer, 0 for PP in US dollars, 0 for PP in US Gulf, 0 for export profit, - 21 for the main futures contract, 0 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and - 60 for warehouse receipts [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2250, the Shandong caustic soda price increased from 802 to 817. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China fluctuated between 4770 - 4850 and then dropped to 4830 on July 7. The import price in US dollars (CFR China) remained at 700, and the export profit remained at 465 from July 3 - 7 [11][12]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 50 for Northwest calcium carbide, 15 for Shandong caustic soda, - 20 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, 0 for ethylene - based PVC in East China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in South China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in the North, 0 for import price in US dollars (CFR China), 0 for export profit, 0 for Northwest comprehensive profit, 0 for North China comprehensive profit, and 0 for the basis (high - end delivery product) [12].