Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of bearish factor realization. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred, but the unilateral direction is hard to determine due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US [2] - **Plastic (PE)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [11] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are performing well. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which could be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [11] - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is -450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [13] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, while the江苏现货 price increased by 12, and the华南现货 price rose by 25. The盘面MTO profit decreased by 61 [2] - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory is accumulating, and it's in a bearish factor realization phase. Iran has reduced its开工 rate, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [2] Plastic (PE) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the东北亚乙烯 price remained unchanged, the华北LL price increased by 60, and the主力期货 price rose by 78 [11] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around -400, and 6 - month maintenance has decreased with an increase in domestic linear production [11] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the山东丙烯 price remained stable, the华东PP price increased by 10, and the主力期货 price rose by 77. The仓单 increased by 2169 [11] - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June [11] PVC - **Price Data**: From July 16 to July 22, the西北电石 and山东烧碱 prices remained unchanged, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20, and the基差 (高端交割品) decreased by 10 [12][13] - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is currently in a period of negative factors being realized. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [2]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [2]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [2]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily changes of other prices were generally small, with the most significant being a 3 - unit increase in Jiangsu spot price and a 5 - unit decrease in South China spot price. The daily change of the盘面MTO profit was - 11 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The most significant daily change was a 25 - unit decrease in the East China LD price. The import profit remained at - 177 on July 17, and the daily change of the main futures price was 1 [2]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 740. The most significant daily changes were a 20 - unit decrease in Shandong propylene price and a 10 - unit decrease in East China PP price. The export profit remained at 4, and the daily change of the main futures price was 7 [2]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained unchanged. There were no significant daily changes in other prices, and all daily changes were 0 [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased by 5 to 2390, the华南现货 price decreased by 10 to 2395, and the鲁南折盘面 price decreased by 5 to 2455. The西南折盘面 price decreased by 55 to 2475, while the河北折盘面 and西北折盘面 prices remained unchanged at 2435 and 2575 respectively. The CFR中国 and CFR东南亚 prices remained at 275 and 333 respectively. The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 10 to -5, and the盘面MTO利润 decreased by 22 to -1243 [2] Core View - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply. Overall, it is in a period of bearish factors being realized. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the single - side direction. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [3] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 820. The华北LL price remained unchanged at 7190, the华东LL price decreased by 10 to 7290, and the华东LD and华东HD prices remained unchanged at 9450 and 7850 respectively. The LL美金 and LL美湾 prices remained at 850 and 939 respectively. The进口利润 remained at - 145, the主力期货 price decreased by 63 to 7221, the基差 increased by 10 to - 80, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 remained at 5956 [8] Core View - For polyethylene, the two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. The upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. The downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in June decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New devices in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new devices [8] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6320, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 740. The华东PP price decreased by 20 to 7010, the华北PP price decreased by 18 to 7070, and the山东粉料 price decreased by 70 to 6830. The华东共聚 price decreased by 14 to 7296. The PP美金 and PP美湾 prices remained at 890 and 1010 respectively. The出口利润 remained at 0, the主力期货 price decreased by 52 to 7015, the基差 increased by 10 to - 20, the两油库存 remained at 73, and the仓单 decreased by 200 to 10317 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and markets in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Price Data - From July 9 - 15, 2025, the西北电石 price remained at 2250, the山东烧碱 price increased by 20 to 857. The电石法 - 华东 price remained at 4900, the乙烯法 - 华东 price remained at 5500, the电石法 - 华南 price remained at 5450, and the电石法 - 西北 price increased by 100 to 4550. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700, the出口利润 remained at 387, the西北综合利润 remained at 356, the华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 20 to - 80 [12][13] Core View - The basis maintains at 09 - 150, and the factory - delivery basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - and upstream has slowed down. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Pay attention to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. Near - term export orders have decreased slightly. Coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of兰炭 is stable, and the profit of电石 is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda export is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]

1. Core Views Methanol - High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. With Iran reducing production, non - Iranian supply increasing, and domestic supply rising, it is in a period of bearish factor realization. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation. Due to unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long positions at low prices [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Overseas prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 400, with no further increase expected. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production increased month - on - month in June as the number of maintenance decreased. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New production capacity in 2025 will bring significant pressure, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [11]. Polypropylene - The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. The PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in June. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the contract 09 is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to expand or more PDH plants undergo maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [11]. PVC - The basis of contract 09 remains at - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream start - up rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The de - stocking of mid - and upstream inventory has slowed down. Northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production level in Q1. Pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports from July to August. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high caustic soda prices. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stabilizing, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [13]. 2. Data Summaries Methanol | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Thermal Coal Futures | 801 | 801 | 801 | 801 | 801 | 0 | | Jiangsu Spot | 2470 | 2455 | 2437 | 2402 | 2385 | -17 | | South China Spot | 2468 | 2465 | 2448 | 2428 | 2415 | -13 | | Lunan Converted to Futures | 2500 | 2495 | 2485 | 2475 | 2450 | -25 | | Southwest Converted to Futures | 2550 | 2550 | 2550 | 2540 | 2540 | 0 | | Hebei Converted to Futures | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 2445 | 0 | | Northwest Converted to Futures | 2610 | 2610 | 2585 | 2565 | 2563 | -2 | | CFR China | 280 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 277 | 0 | | CFR Southeast Asia | 345 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 340 | 0 | | Import Profit | 48 | 58 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 0 | | Main Contract Basis | 45 | 35 | 25 | 20 | 8 | -12 | | MTO Profit on Futures | -1268 | -1219 | -1219 | -1174 | -1138 | 36 | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Northeast Asia Ethylene | 850 | 850 | 820 | 820 | 820 | 0 | | North China LL | 7200 | 7200 | 7175 | 7170 | 7180 | 10 | | East China LL | 7340 | 7350 | 7300 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | | East China LD | 9500 | 9525 | 9500 | 9450 | 9450 | 0 | | East China HD | 8000 | 8000 | 8000 | 8000 | 7950 | -50 | | LL in US Dollars | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 850 | 0 | | LL in US Gulf | 917 | 917 | 939 | 939 | 939 | 0 | | Import Profit | -115 | -100 | -161 | -161 | -161 | 0 | | Main Futures Contract | 7284 | 7282 | 7247 | 7245 | 7278 | 33 | | Basis | -80 | -90 | -60 | -70 | -90 | -20 | | Sinopec and PetroChina Inventory | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | | Warehouse Receipts | 5631 | 5831 | 5831 | 5831 | 5831 | 0 | [11] Polypropylene | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Propylene | 6600 | 6550 | 6420 | 6400 | 6400 | 0 | | Northeast Asia Propylene | 745 | 745 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 0 | | East China PP | 7075 | 7070 | 7030 | 7025 | 7035 | 10 | | North China PP | 7125 | 7145 | 7115 | 7108 | 7093 | -15 | | Shandong Powder | 6980 | 6970 | 6920 | 6900 | 6870 | -30 | | East China Copolymer | 7352 | 7330 | 7320 | 7320 | 7320 | 0 | | PP in US Dollars | 890 | 900 | 890 | 890 | 890 | 0 | | PP in US Gulf | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 1035 | 0 | | Export Profit | -4 | -7 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | | Main Futures Contract | 7074 | 7078 | 7057 | 7045 | 7078 | 33 | | Basis | 0 | -20 | -20 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | Sinopec and PetroChina Inventory | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 0 | | Warehouse Receipts | 7392 | 7292 | 7232 | 7351 | 7351 | 0 | [11] PVC | Indicator | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Northwest Calcium Carbide | 2350 | 2300 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | | Shandong Caustic Soda | 802 | 802 | 817 | 837 | 837 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - East China | 4840 | 4850 | 4830 | 4830 | 4850 | 20 | | Ethylene Method - East China | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 5500 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - South China | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 5450 | 0 | | Calcium Carbide Method - Northwest | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | Import Price in US Dollars (CFR China) | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 700 | 0 | | Export Profit | 465 | 465 | 465 | 465 | 465 | 0 | | Northwest Comprehensive Profit | 356 | 356 | 356 | 356 | 356 | 0 | | North China Comprehensive Profit | -244 | -244 | -244 | -244 | -244 | 0 | | Basis (High - end Delivery Goods) | -80 | -80 | -80 | -80 | -80 | 0 | [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is occurring, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene price is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase slightly in June. The downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices undergo more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices due to seasonal factors. The mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in June. The near - term export orders are acceptable. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 500. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and production starts [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2520 to 2437, the South China spot price decreased from 2480 to 2448. The import profit decreased from 125 to 58, and the main contract basis decreased from 90 to 25. The MTO profit on the futures market decreased from - 1208 to - 1219 [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The daily changes on July 7 compared to the previous period were 0 for power coal futures, - 18 for Jiangsu spot, - 17 for South China spot, - 10 for Lunan converted to futures price, 0 for Southwest converted to futures price, 0 for Hebei converted to futures price, - 25 for Northwest converted to futures price, 0 for CFR China, 0 for CFR Southeast Asia, 0 for import profit, - 10 for main contract basis, and 0 for MTO profit on the futures market [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price fluctuated between 7150 - 7200 and then dropped to 7175 on July 7. The two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71, and the warehouse receipts remained at 5831 on July 4 and 7 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were 0 for Northeast Asian ethylene, - 25 for North China LL, - 50 for East China LL, - 25 for East China LD, 0 for East China HD, 0 for LL in US dollars, 0 for LL in US Gulf, 0 for import profit, - 35 for the main futures contract, 30 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and 0 for warehouse receipts [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6630 to 6420, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7060 to 7030, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 76 to 71. The warehouse receipts decreased from 7404 to 7232 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 130 for Shandong propylene, 0 for Northeast Asian propylene, - 40 for East China PP, - 30 for North China PP, - 50 for Shandong powder, - 10 for East China copolymer, 0 for PP in US dollars, 0 for PP in US Gulf, 0 for export profit, - 21 for the main futures contract, 0 for the basis, 0 for two - oil inventory, and - 60 for warehouse receipts [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 1 - 7, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2250, the Shandong caustic soda price increased from 802 to 817. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China fluctuated between 4770 - 4850 and then dropped to 4830 on July 7. The import price in US dollars (CFR China) remained at 700, and the export profit remained at 465 from July 3 - 7 [11][12]. - **Daily Changes**: On July 7 compared to the previous period, the changes were - 50 for Northwest calcium carbide, 15 for Shandong caustic soda, - 20 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, 0 for ethylene - based PVC in East China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in South China, 0 for calcium - carbide - based PVC in the North, 0 for import price in US dollars (CFR China), 0 for export profit, 0 for Northwest comprehensive profit, 0 for North China comprehensive profit, and 0 for the basis (high - end delivery product) [12].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/04 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/06/2 7 | 801 | 2820 | 2505 | 2460 | 2600 | 2460 | 2580 | 282 | 350 | 267 | 400 | -1176 | | 2025/06/3 0 | 801 | 2785 | 2485 | 2430 | 2600 | 2445 | 2543 | 280 | 350 | 220 | 350 | -1173 | | 2025/07/0 1 | 801 | 2520 | 2480 | 2430 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For methanol, the high imports are starting to materialize, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the United States, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [7]. - For PP, the upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly, and the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2735 to 2820, with a daily increase of 60 on the 27th. The import profit increased from 210 to 267, and the futures MTO profit increased from -1350 to -1176 [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has started, and the futures price is undervalued. Iran has reduced its production, non - Iranian supply has increased, and the domestic supply has also increased. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 on the 27th. The import profit remained at -77, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around -400 with no further increase. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD is weakening. In June, the domestic linear production is increasing [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6890 to 6700, and the export profit remained at -14. The two - oil inventory decreased from 81 to 70 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around -500. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around -1000, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4850 to 4850 (with a 50 increase on the 25th). The export profit remained at 626, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased from -90 to -80 [10][11]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, the downstream has a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices, and the mid - upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors. The PVC comprehensive profit is -500, and the static inventory is decreasing from a high level [11].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/20 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/06/1 3 | 801 | 2480 | 2450 | 2405 | 2550 | 2365 | 2590 | 279 | 325 | 50 | 60 | -1001 | | 2025/06/1 6 | 801 | 2585 | 2528 | 2478 | 2600 | 2390 | 2593 | 287 | 325 | 114 | 125 | -1001 | | 2025/06/1 7 | 801 | 2615 | 2563 | 2500 | 265 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/13 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 322 36 40 -967 2025/06/0 9 801 2343 2323 2363 2500 2320 2483 264 322 46 60 -999 2025/06/1 0 801 2390 2333 2355 2475 2340 2495 268 322 40 95 -987 2025/06/1 1 801 2383 2335 2373 2475 2365 2498 268 322 36 83 -986 2025/06/1 2 801 2395 2345 2380 2490 2365 2498 268 322 36 70 -1001 日度变化 0 12 10 7 15 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -15 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/12 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 262 320 38 42 -966 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 322 36 40 -967 2025/06/0 9 801 2343 2323 2363 2500 2320 2483 264 322 46 60 -999 2025/06/1 0 801 2390 2333 2355 2475 2340 2495 268 322 40 95 -987 2025/06/1 1 801 2383 2335 2373 2475 2365 2498 268 322 40 83 -986 日度变化 0 -7 2 18 0 25 3 0 0 0 -12 1 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工， ...