一位知名债券经理表示，美联储不降息正在冒着制造"金德尔伯格螺旋"（Kindleberger Spiral）式通缩衰 退的风险。 "金德尔伯格螺旋"的概念来源于著名经济学家查尔斯·金德尔伯格（Charles Kindleberger）。他在1973年 撰写了一本关于"大萧条"的开创性著作，该书在2013年由著名经济学家布拉德·德隆（Brad DeLong）和 巴里·艾兴格林（Barry Eichengreen）进行了修订。 其核心思想是，当"以邻为壑"的关税政策普遍存在时，世界储备货币的中央银行必须提供流动性，以弥 补资本流动收缩造成的损失。 总部位于德克萨斯州奥斯汀的霍辛顿投资管理公司（Hoisington Investment Management Co.，简称 HIMCO）是一家知名的债券投资商，其季度信函以将宏观经济概念提炼成投资理念而闻名。在其第二 季度信函中，该公司阐述了关税带来的"后期效应"，即受关税影响的商品需求量和价格都会下降。 尽管存在流动性方面的担忧，但作者们仍然支持提高关税，他们指出美国工业基础的空心化问题，这一 问题在疫情期间和俄乌冲突导致的供应链中断中暴露无遗。 他们表示："关税，尽 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]