12月5日，温和增速、宽松政策取向与持续的地缘风险，共同构成推动黄金的核心环境，而投资需求、 官方储备购金与回收供给仍可能加强这一趋势。在此框架下，GTC泽汇资本将世界黄金协会（WGC） 的观点进行再分析，认为尽管黄金具有多重支撑，但潜在阻力依然存在，使未来显著不确定。 黄金在 2025 年录得强劲上涨，全年创下超过 50 次历史新高，总涨幅超过 60%。推动因素包括经济与 地缘层面的高不确定性、偏弱美元以及价格动能增强。第二段中 GTC泽汇资本认为，投资机构与官方 储备部门均显著提高黄金配置，反映市场对多元化与组合稳定性的需求正在持续升温。 展望 2026 年，黄金价格将继续受到地缘经济框架主导。若宏观保持当前预期，金价或维持区间震荡； 但历史经验显示市场往往超出共识。假如增长放缓与利率继续下降，黄金可能温和走高；若经济出现更 深度压力，则避险需求或推动更强涨势。反之，若政策刺激形成更快增长并降低风险环境，美元和利率 可能走强，从而压制金价。 2025 年黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的资产之一，回报可能位列 1971 年以来前四。WGC 模型的拆分显 示，高风险环境贡献约 12 个百分点回报，弱美元与利率下行贡献 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates poses a risk of creating a "Kindleberger Spiral" type of deflationary recession [1] - The concept of "Kindleberger Spiral" emphasizes the need for the central bank of the world reserve currency to provide liquidity to counteract the losses caused by capital flow contractions due to widespread "beggar-thy-neighbor" tariff policies [1] - Hoisington Investment Management Co. highlights the "lagging effects" of tariffs, indicating that both the demand and prices of goods affected by tariffs will decline [2] Group 2 - Concerns regarding tariffs stem from the potential for retaliatory tariffs, which could lead to a decrease in international trade, a significant component of GDP for most countries [2] - Other analysts agree that a reduction in trade deficits could result in decreased foreign investment in U.S. stocks, government bonds, and other asset classes [2] - The authors of the letter argue that the current Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, is failing to address the liquidity vacuum, similar to the situation faced by the British pound in the 1920s and 1930s [2] Group 3 - Despite liquidity concerns, the authors support increasing tariffs as a means to address the hollowing out of the U.S. industrial base, which has been exposed during the pandemic and the supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - They assert that tariffs, despite their negative impacts, are the only viable tool for creating a more strategically diversified industrial economy and returning the world to more efficient resource allocation [2] - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" is expected to prevent a "deep recession," providing approximately $30 billion in moderate fiscal stimulus annually, even if tax rates revert to 2016 levels [2] Group 4 - The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund, advised by Hoisington Investment Management Co., has seen a decline of 4% year-to-date [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]