Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is transitioning from a linear trajectory to a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, leading to heightened sensitivity to disturbances and a dual feature of instability and resilience optimization [1] - Major economic policies are diverging, exacerbating global structural differentiation, while structural reforms, supply chain restructuring, and technological innovation are simultaneously reshaping the growth foundation [1] - China's performance and choices are critical in this global context, with its vast domestic market, ongoing industrial upgrades, and relatively ample policy space positioning its assets at the center of global capital attention [1] Group 2: Policy and Profit Recovery - China is creating conditions for corporate profit recovery through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies amid a transition between old and new economic equilibria [2] - The MSCI China Index is projected to see a 10% increase in earnings per share by 2026, driven by anti-involution measures and reduced depreciation expenses from declining capital expenditures [2] - Continuous policy support is effectively boosting corporate profitability and investment value, with expectations for steady increases in ROE and dividend yields for listed companies [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a substantial force driving China's economic transformation, with 2025 anticipated as the "AI application year" [3] - Global recognition of China's AI industry is growing, with significant breakthroughs in technology innovation and favorable policies expected to enhance profitability [4] - The restructuring of supply chains is creating new investment opportunities, particularly in technology independence, resilient supply chains, and energy security [4] Group 4: Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - The easing of global monetary policies and a weakening dollar are creating favorable conditions for emerging market assets, including those in Asia [6] - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to reach a target of 100 by the end of 2026, indicating a potential 14% increase from current levels, supported by inflows from domestic and foreign investors [6] - China's assets are facing significant value reassessment opportunities amid a dual critical state of upward potential and downward risks, driven by structural reforms and technological innovations [6] Group 5: Micro-Level Changes - The potential for China to become a global capital "safe haven" lies not in macro data but in ongoing micro-level transformations, such as technological breakthroughs and smart factory upgrades [7] - These subtle changes are becoming key nodes that could shift the overall landscape, indicating that perceptions of Chinese assets represent a vote for the future [7]

混沌中的规律：全球经济的非线性演化 宏观经济深度研究 在混沌中构建秩序 ——2026 年全球经济展望 " 长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。 " 人类经济社会的每一次前行，都是在混 沌中构建秩序的历程，是在动荡的浪潮中寻找平衡的永恒努力。当旧范式的能 量逐渐衰竭，新范式的形态隐约成形。局部失序与整体重构共存，短期波动与 长期演化交织，全球经济正在脱离线性轨道，迈入一个由非线性、路径依赖与 适应性共同塑造的复杂系统。局部的细微变化不再是可忽略的短噪声，而成为 可能撬动整体格局的关键节点。历史积累的惯性也不再是趋势的线性延伸，而 是以隐性约束的方式限定未来演化的可能区间。系统对扰动的敏感性显著提 升，经济运行呈现出高度不稳定却韧性犹在的双重特征。在这种混沌式演化 中，传统经验难以提供确定答案，唯有回溯底层结构方能洞见未来方向。混沌 并不可畏，它象征着系统的开放性与潜能苏醒的活力。这既意味着高风险，也 孕育着新秩序。全球财政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取 代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。在复杂性中寻求稳定，在不确定中重 塑确定，正在成为全球经济新的演化方向。人类的任务，仍是以理性的勇气与 制度的创 ...