全 GL AN 2 全球经 LOBAL ND INV 20 经济展 L ECO VESTM 02 展望及 ONOMI MENT S 6 投资策 IC OU STRAT 策略 UTLOO TEGY K 格物 UNC CHA 物致知， COVER DE ART NEW 成势在人 EEPER INS HORIZON 人 SIGHTS, NS icbci.co om.hk 序 言 Preface 王文彬 Wenbin Wang Ph.D., CFA, FRM 董事长 Chairman 穿越周期 洞见新机 风禾尽起，时机交替。回望 2025 年，全球经济于多重变局中迎来关键转折。美联储降息周期再度开 启，全球关税博弈峰回路转，然全球地缘冲突迭起、科技竞合加剧、供应链重构深化、美国财政约束趋 紧等挑战突出。全球经济航行于曙光隐现却暗礁潜藏的未知海域，风险资产于高估值区间内震荡加剧。 中国经济于复杂环境中应变克难、稳健前行，在"十四五"圆满收官之际，以高质量发展奏响稳中有进 的昂扬主旋律。香港资本市场强势复苏，恒生指数全年涨幅领跑全球，IPO 募资额重登全球首位，国际 债券发行规模亚洲领先，尽显东方明珠蓬勃活力。 破立相生 ...

混沌中的规律：全球经济的非线性演化 宏观经济深度研究 在混沌中构建秩序 ——2026 年全球经济展望 " 长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。 " 人类经济社会的每一次前行，都是在混 沌中构建秩序的历程，是在动荡的浪潮中寻找平衡的永恒努力。当旧范式的能 量逐渐衰竭，新范式的形态隐约成形。局部失序与整体重构共存，短期波动与 长期演化交织，全球经济正在脱离线性轨道，迈入一个由非线性、路径依赖与 适应性共同塑造的复杂系统。局部的细微变化不再是可忽略的短噪声，而成为 可能撬动整体格局的关键节点。历史积累的惯性也不再是趋势的线性延伸，而 是以隐性约束的方式限定未来演化的可能区间。系统对扰动的敏感性显著提 升，经济运行呈现出高度不稳定却韧性犹在的双重特征。在这种混沌式演化 中，传统经验难以提供确定答案，唯有回溯底层结构方能洞见未来方向。混沌 并不可畏，它象征着系统的开放性与潜能苏醒的活力。这既意味着高风险，也 孕育着新秩序。全球财政主导下，结构性改革、产业链重组与技术创新正在取 代旧的全球化逻辑，重新锚定增长基础。在复杂性中寻求稳定，在不确定中重 塑确定，正在成为全球经济新的演化方向。人类的任务，仍是以理性的勇气与 制度的创 ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]

一 IMF公布《全球经济展望报告》。也就是明天晚上9点会公布，这个报告的重要性，预见性，以及风险 暗示提醒。都是站在全球经济的基础上，给出的指引。对于金融市场的影响，不容小视。 先说说IMF是啥？全称是International Monetary Fund，简称 IMF。普通话讲就是国际货币基金组织，啥 时候成立的，为啥成立？二战后成立的，成立的目的是全球战后经济复苏重建。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ states that the current global economic outlook is stable and the market fundamentals are healthy [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ emphasizes the stability of the global economic outlook, indicating confidence in market conditions [1] - The organization highlights that the fundamentals of the market are sound, suggesting a positive environment for oil prices and production [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that OPEC+ has declared a stable global economic outlook with healthy market fundamentals [1] - Eight member countries will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the trade war will lead to stagflation tendencies in the second half of 2025, with global GDP growth expected to slow to an annualized rate of 1.4% and core inflation rising to 3.4% due to inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [2][3] - The commodity production sector is expected to be the first to feel the impact of economic slowdown, with global factory output and capital spending projected to contract [2] - Despite rising inflation in the U.S., lower-than-expected growth is likely to drive moderate deflation in other regions, with the Eurozone's core inflation rate expected to fall below 2% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley assesses that the global GDP growth has an upward risk bias for the second half of 2025, driven by a positive evaluation of the private sector's health, a supportive financial environment, and expected fiscal policy easing [3] - The risk of a significant growth surprise is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of the U.S. entering a recession, driven by concerns over household purchasing power and low corporate sentiment [3] - The behavior of a still-healthy corporate sector, particularly avoiding layoffs, is crucial for maintaining U.S. economic expansion, although this may come at the cost of profit margin compression [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]

Group 1 - The G20 meeting will take place in Washington, USA on April 23-24, 2025, focusing on global economic outlook and international financial architecture [1] - Key topics include addressing Africa's development and growth challenges [1] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, will attend and speak at the meeting, alongside Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng [1]