公司发布2026 财年中期业绩公告及近期经营数据：FY26H1 收入同比-1.1%，归母净利润同比+0.1%， 同时宣派中期股息每股0.22 港元，派息率85.7%。10月1 日-11 月18 日终端增长强劲，内地同店 +38.8%，其中定价首饰+93.9%、计价黄金首饰+23.0%。由于年内金价延续快速上涨，我们预计公司下 半年将受益于金价利好，因此上调盈利预测，预计FY2026-FY2028 净利润规模分别为87.07 亿港币、 98.04 亿港币、108.64 亿港币，当前市值对应FY26PE 为17.5X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 公司发布2026 财年中期业绩公告。FY26H1（截至2025 年9 月30 日止六个月）收入389.9 亿港元，同 比-1.1%；经营溢利68.2 亿港元，同比+0.7%；归母净利润25.3 亿港元，同比+0.1%。公司宣派中期股息 每股0.22 港元，派息率85.7%。 收入拆分来看,（ 机构：招商证券 研究员：刘丽/王雪玉 产品结构及以及渠道结构均呈现升级趋势。（1）从产品结构看：FY26H1 定价首饰收入占比29.6%（不 含珠宝贸易以及加盟商的服务收入），较FY25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]

Group 1 - The company reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand and children's clothing in Q3 2025, with e-commerce retail sales increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a robust offline retail growth of about 10% year-on-year, with stable discount and inventory levels expected [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has opened 93 super stores, nearly doubling from Q2, indicating an accelerated expansion and an upgrade in channel structure [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates a strong performance in the 2026 ordering meeting, with a high certainty of revenue growth for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 times respectively [1] - The ongoing improvement in product matrix and product strength, along with the exploration of new business formats like super stores, is expected to contribute to a second growth driver [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core apparel business while exiting the real estate sector, which may lead to short-term revenue pressure. However, as consumer demand recovers, the benefits of its multi-brand strategy and upgraded channel structure are expected to materialize [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1979, the company has transitioned from a three-pillar model (apparel, real estate, and investment) to a focus on its core apparel business. The apparel segment has maintained a leading market share in men's shirts and suits for over 20 years. The company officially exited the real estate business in 2024 to optimize its investment structure [6][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 141.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 27.67 billion CNY. The apparel and real estate segments contributed 48% and 53% to total revenue, respectively. The net profit breakdown was 16% from apparel, 6% from real estate, and 80% from investments [6][16]. Apparel Business Strategy - The apparel segment generated revenue of 57.34 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 4.31 billion CNY. The main brand, YOUNGOR, accounted for over 90% of revenue. The company has expanded its brand portfolio to include high-end outdoor and luxury children's wear, with significant growth in sub-brands [6][43][59]. Investment and Real Estate - The company has reduced its real estate activities, with no new projects since 2023, and aims to accelerate the sale of existing inventory. In 2024, real estate revenue was 74.71 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.54 billion CNY. The investment segment has maintained net profits between 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY in recent years, focusing on fashion industry investments [6][7][39]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 137.74 billion CNY, 101.73 billion CNY, and 98.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 30.10 billion CNY, 32.11 billion CNY, and 34.57 billion CNY. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.4X for 2025 and 10.6X for 2026 [7][8].