Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for FY26H1 but showed resilience in net profit, with strong growth in retail sales and a positive outlook due to rising gold prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 38.99 billion, down 1.1% year-on-year, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to HKD 6.82 billion, and net profit rose by 0.1% to HKD 2.53 billion [1]. - The interim dividend declared was HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The company expects net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 to be HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion, respectively, with a current market capitalization corresponding to a FY26 PE of 17.5X [1][4]. Regional Performance - In FY26H1, revenue from mainland China was HKD 32.19 billion, down 2.5%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets was HKD 6.79 billion, up 6.5% [1]. - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 2.6% for direct stores and 4.8% for franchise stores, while Hong Kong and Macau saw a 4.4% increase, with Hong Kong at 1.8% and Macau at 13.7% [1]. Product and Channel Structure - The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, while revenue from gold jewelry decreased by 3.8% in FY26H1 [1][2]. - The proportion of revenue from priced jewelry rose to 29.6%, up from 26.9% in FY25H1, with high-margin products contributing HKD 3.4 billion, accounting for 8.7% of total revenue [2]. - The retail value in first-tier cities grew by 8.7%, with the proportion of retail value in first and second-tier markets increasing from 55.3% in FY25 to 64.7% in FY26 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company closed 611 underperforming stores, ending FY26H1 with 5,663 retail points in mainland China, while maintaining 88 stores in Hong Kong and Macau [2]. - The gross profit margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising gold prices and lower product category margins [3]. - The SG&A ratio improved by 1.2 percentage points to 14.0%, leading to an operating profit margin of 17.5%, the highest in five years [3]. Recent Sales Data - From October 1 to November 18, 2025, overall retail value grew by 33.9%, with mainland China up 35.1% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 26.5% [4]. - Same-store sales in mainland China surged by 38.8%, with priced jewelry up 93.9% and gold jewelry up 23.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]

Group 1 - The company reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand and children's clothing in Q3 2025, with e-commerce retail sales increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a robust offline retail growth of about 10% year-on-year, with stable discount and inventory levels expected [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has opened 93 super stores, nearly doubling from Q2, indicating an accelerated expansion and an upgrade in channel structure [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates a strong performance in the 2026 ordering meeting, with a high certainty of revenue growth for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 times respectively [1] - The ongoing improvement in product matrix and product strength, along with the exploration of new business formats like super stores, is expected to contribute to a second growth driver [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core apparel business while exiting the real estate sector, which may lead to short-term revenue pressure. However, as consumer demand recovers, the benefits of its multi-brand strategy and upgraded channel structure are expected to materialize [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1979, the company has transitioned from a three-pillar model (apparel, real estate, and investment) to a focus on its core apparel business. The apparel segment has maintained a leading market share in men's shirts and suits for over 20 years. The company officially exited the real estate business in 2024 to optimize its investment structure [6][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 141.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 27.67 billion CNY. The apparel and real estate segments contributed 48% and 53% to total revenue, respectively. The net profit breakdown was 16% from apparel, 6% from real estate, and 80% from investments [6][16]. Apparel Business Strategy - The apparel segment generated revenue of 57.34 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 4.31 billion CNY. The main brand, YOUNGOR, accounted for over 90% of revenue. The company has expanded its brand portfolio to include high-end outdoor and luxury children's wear, with significant growth in sub-brands [6][43][59]. Investment and Real Estate - The company has reduced its real estate activities, with no new projects since 2023, and aims to accelerate the sale of existing inventory. In 2024, real estate revenue was 74.71 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.54 billion CNY. The investment segment has maintained net profits between 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY in recent years, focusing on fashion industry investments [6][7][39]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 137.74 billion CNY, 101.73 billion CNY, and 98.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 30.10 billion CNY, 32.11 billion CNY, and 34.57 billion CNY. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.4X for 2025 and 10.6X for 2026 [7][8].