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国投电力:25年Q1水电表现稳健,盈利韧性足-20250507
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-07 09:15
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 国投电力(600886) 证券研究报告 25 年 Q1 水电表现稳健,盈利韧性足 事件 近期,公司发布 2024 年年度报告以及 2025 年一季报。 2024 年公司实现营业收入 578.2 亿元,同比增长 1.95%;实现归母净利润 66.4 亿元,同比-0.9%; 2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 131.2 亿元,同比减少 7%;实现归母净利润 20.8 亿元,同比增长 2.1%。 水电:24 年雅砻江受税费影响业绩下滑,25 年 Q1 表现稳健 2024 年全年:雅砻江水电上网电量 924.5 亿千瓦时,同比+10.4%;上网电 价 0.301 元/千瓦时,同比-2.9%。根据公司披露的数据,雅砻江水电 2024 年实现净利润 82.7 亿元,同比-4.5%;对应 Q4 净利润约 3 亿元,Q4 雅砻 江水电净利润相较于 23 年同期同比下滑约 77%。从经营层面看,2024 年 Q4 雅砻江水电发电量和上网电价分别为 210.7 亿千瓦时和 0.296 元/千瓦 时,分别同比下降 5.45%和 5.43%,此外四季度的利润下滑也与缴纳税费同 比增加有关。 2025 ...
湖北能源(000883):减值扰动利润,Q1水电电量暂承压
HTSC· 2025-05-06 03:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.11 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.03 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.814 billion RMB, up 3.75% year-on-year. However, the net profit fell short of expectations due to higher-than-anticipated asset impairment losses [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 19.65% year-on-year, primarily due to lower hydropower generation, which was down 45.77% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company expects improved profitability in thermal power generation in 2025 due to declining coal prices, despite challenges in hydropower generation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total power generation of 44.04 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.21%. The breakdown includes hydropower down 0.36%, thermal power up 33.03%, wind power up 10.99%, and solar power up 53.97% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 increased by 3.75%, driven by higher generation from the Peru Chagüa power station and reduced purchasing costs under long-term power purchase agreements [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - The company’s total power generation in Q1 2025 was 9.974 billion kWh, a decrease of 7.93% year-on-year, with hydropower generation significantly impacted by lower water inflow [3][4]. - The report indicates that the company’s hydropower generation is expected to face challenges in the near term, but thermal power profitability is projected to improve [3]. Adjustments and Forecasts - Due to higher-than-expected asset impairment losses, the report revised the 2025-2026 asset impairment loss estimates upward by 631.52% and 632.24% to 360 million RMB and 385 million RMB, respectively [4][13]. - The report also adjusted the 2025-2026 net profit estimates downward by 33.03% and 33.18% to 1.937 billion RMB and 2.049 billion RMB, respectively [4][14]. Valuation Metrics - The target market capitalization is set at 39.708 billion RMB, with a target price of 6.11 RMB per share, based on a comparative analysis with similar companies [4][19]. - The report provides a valuation comparison with peers, indicating that the company’s future growth in renewable energy capacity lags behind comparable firms [4][16].