Company Updates - Tesla reported a significant decline in Q2 performance, with a 12% year-over-year drop in revenue and a 23% decrease in EPS, marking the largest sales decline in a decade. The automotive business revenue fell by 16%, continuing a trend of double-digit declines over two consecutive quarters. The company reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles and the Cybercab, with a warning from CEO Elon Musk about challenging conditions in the upcoming quarters [10][12] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, exceeded Q2 earnings expectations and raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion, which is $10 billion higher than previous estimates. The strong performance was driven by robust growth in cloud services and search advertising, although there are concerns about profitability due to increased capital spending [4][12] Industry Insights - The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that lowers tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, which has raised concerns among American automakers about competitive disadvantages. The agreement is seen as a potential template for future U.S.-EU trade negotiations [11][21] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that Hainan Free Trade Port will officially close on December 18, with 74% of imported goods subject to zero tariffs. This move is expected to enhance trade facilitation and regulatory efficiency in the region [9][10] - The AI sector is poised for significant growth as the U.S. government has released an "AI Action Plan" aimed at accelerating AI development through regulatory relaxation and increased energy supply for data centers. Major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Amazon are expected to benefit from these initiatives [14]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。工业和信息化 部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推 动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 我国炼油行业起步较早，1958年兰州石化投产填补了我国石油化工行业空白，改革开放后炼油行业进入 快速发展期，至2000年我国炼油能力为3.6亿吨，2005年我国原油加工量为2.86亿吨，为2024年原油加 工量的40%。炼油行业发展过程中产生了大量建设历史较久老旧装置，根据中国石化2001年披露的A股 招股说明书，2000年中国石化拥有原油一次加工能力1 ...

21日，记者从大庆石化获悉：上半年，大庆石化锚定高质量发展目标，扎实推进精细管理、提质增效、 业务优化，7项主要产品产量好于历史同期，5项物耗指标创历史最优，16项能耗指标刷新纪录，上市与 未上市业务首次实现双赢，以实干实绩奏响发展强音。 生产优化拓增量，炼化一体稳运行。大庆石化坚持"大平稳出大效益"，强化装置精细管控与动态调整。 从炼化产业链整体需求出发，科学调整原油进厂及装置负荷，平衡成品油生产调和，优化两套催化裂化 装置操作，降低柴油凝点，增产负35号低凝柴油，截至7月13日，出厂量超计划进度0.19万吨。公司精 准平衡上下游物料，全力保障乙烯装置高负荷运行，高效完成乙烯6月产量11万吨目标。同时，紧抓国 际成品油添加剂市场需求，通过优化生产流程、强化产销协同，上半年化工MTBE产量突破历史峰值， MTBE累计出口量同比增加3.26万吨。 系统降本挖潜力，节能降耗增效益。在"一切成本皆可降"理念的引领下，大庆石化坚持深化全员、全流 程成本管控。从严从细抓好"三剂"使用，切实压减"三剂"全链条成本。上半年，公司成功试用31项新型 生产助剂，以国产氟弹性体替代进口助剂生产长链支化茂金属聚乙烯150吨，复合助 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：聚酯终端需求偏弱，价格及盈利有所下跌 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 7 月 20 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 7 月 18 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2462.77 元/吨，环比变化-30.19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the 1.2 million tons/year ethylene unit at China Petroleum's Guangxi Petrochemical Company marks a significant milestone in the integrated refining and chemical transformation project, which is a key initiative under China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The total investment for the Guangxi Petrochemical integrated refining and chemical transformation project is 30.5 billion yuan, covering an area of over 4,400 acres [1] - The project includes the construction of 14 chemical units, including a 1.2 million tons/year ethylene cracking unit, and 2 refining units with a capacity of 2 million tons/year for diesel adsorption and desulfurization [1] - The project commenced construction on July 29, 2023, and has achieved several industry records during its development [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The project successfully addressed challenges related to the installation of oversized and heavy equipment, including the safe and precise positioning of a 1,760-ton propylene tower [1] - It promoted factory prefabrication and modular construction, transitioning from traditional on-site operations to a synchronized operation model of "one site + N factories" [1] - The project features the largest ethylene low-temperature tank in China and the first self-designed, procured, and constructed co-oxidation method for propylene oxide and styrene production unit [1] Group 3: Future Impact - The project is scheduled to commence production on October 18, 2025, and aims to transform Guangxi Petrochemical from a "fuel-type" refinery to a "chemical products and organic materials-type" enterprise [1] - It will enhance the high-quality development of China Petroleum's refining business and fill the gap in the high-end chemical new materials industry in the region [1] - The project is expected to meet market demands along the new western land-sea corridor and contribute to the establishment of a trillion-yuan green chemical new materials industry cluster in Guangxi, targeting ASEAN markets [1]

石油化工产业不仅是能源转化的"心脏"，更是工业经济的"血脉"。 它的应用像空气一样无处不在，比如早餐包装的塑料盒，上班穿的化纤衬衫，手机里的电器元件，新能 源汽车的各种零部件都是来自炼化产品。 从基础民生到高端科技，从传统制造到战略新兴产业，石油炼化是国家能源安全、工业发展和经济稳定 的重要支柱。 以中石油为例，"减油增化"战略成功落实，2024年化工商品产量同比增长10.4%，乙烯和PX产量同比分 别增长8.1%和31.4%。 此外，2024年一年之内完成可研批复55项，一系列转型升级项目加紧推进，有力支撑炼化业务加快向产 业链中高端迈进。可以说，中国石油炼化企业正在向"率先建成世界一流"的目标迈进。 在未来，随着新质炼化时代的到来，从大国变为强国是中国石油化工产业追求的终极目标。 广东揭阳地势平坦，海岸线绵长，淡水资源丰富，为大规模建厂、造码头以及化工生产，提供了得天独 厚的自然条件。 这是企业选择落户广东揭阳惠来县的重要原因之一。 作为中石油一次性投资最大的炼化一体化项目，广东石化的建设并非一帆风顺。 2018年，项目重启之时，地处广东揭阳南海之滨的厂区，几乎还是一张白纸。 重启也为企业带来了崭新的定位 ...

Global Overview - Global propylene capacity is projected to grow from 125 million tons in 2017 to 177 million tons by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.1% [1] - Global propylene production is expected to increase from 103 million tons to 134 million tons during the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9% [1] - Northeast Asia is the largest production region, accounting for 51.5% of global capacity, followed by North America (14.0%) and Western Europe (9.0%) [1] China's Propylene Industry - China is a significant global propylene producer, with a projected capacity of 69.73 million tons and a production of 53.41 million tons by 2024 [2] - The average annual growth rate of propylene capacity in China from 2014 to 2024 is 12.8% due to the increase in coal/methanol-to-propylene and propane dehydrogenation facilities [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate in China's propylene industry is expected to be 76.6% in 2024, down from over 90% prior to 2014 [2] Production Techniques - Traditional oil-based processes like catalytic cracking and steam cracking remain the dominant methods for propylene production in China [2] - By 2024, steam cracking will account for 33.7% of production capacity, while propane dehydrogenation will represent 32.3% [2] Regional Production Distribution - Propylene production in China is concentrated in East and North China, which account for 31.1% and 20.3% of total production, respectively [3] - The top five provinces for propylene production are Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Ningxia, collectively accounting for 58.4% of national output [3] Market Competition - The Chinese propylene industry is competitive, with over 100 production companies; the top 10 companies hold 56.4% of the total capacity [3] - State-owned enterprises like Sinopec and PetroChina are the primary producers, but there is a trend towards diversification with private companies entering the market [3] Consumption Trends - China is the largest consumer of propylene globally, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons in 2024 [4] - The domestic supply is expected to be approximately 53.41 million tons, with imports at 2.02 million tons and exports at 0.07 million tons [4] - The average annual growth rate of domestic propylene consumption from 2014 to 2024 is about 9.9% [4] Downstream Demand - The demand for propylene derivatives has been increasing, with polypropylene accounting for 67.7% of consumption in 2024 [5] - Other derivatives like epoxy propane and acrylonitrile are also seeing significant growth, with production rates increasing substantially from 2014 to 2024 [5]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格承压，产销上升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2529元/吨，环比-106元/吨（环比-4%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1070元/吨，环比-58元/吨（环比-5%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6779/6986/8075元/吨，环比分别-211/-264/-193元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为26/-102/24元/吨，环比分别-37/-73/-26元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 24.2/24.7/29.4天，环比分别+2.5/+2.3/+0.8天，长丝开工率为91.9%，环比+0.7pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为56.2%，环比-1.9pct，织造企业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [127]. Core Insights - The price spread of refining products remains weak, with domestic key refining project price spread at 2534.93 CNY/ton, down by 101.49 CNY/ton (-3.85%) week-on-week, and international key refining project price spread at 1070.98 CNY/ton, down by 55.46 CNY/ton (-4.92%) [2][12]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was 69.73 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.70% [2][12]. - The report highlights the impact of OPEC+ production increases and rising EIA crude oil inventories, which negatively affect market expectations, while U.S. tariff delays and Saudi Arabia's price adjustments provide some support to oil prices [13][12]. Refining Sector Summary - The refining sector is facing increased supply expectations due to OPEC+ production increases and rising crude oil inventories, which may negatively impact market conditions [13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally declined, while international prices have increased [13]. - The price spread for refined products in the domestic market has decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7174.29 CNY/ton, 8171.86 CNY/ton, and 6165.43 CNY/ton respectively [13]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector is experiencing overall price declines due to weak demand, with polyethylene prices showing limited increases despite cost support [48]. - EVA prices have decreased due to weak downstream demand, leading to price concessions from suppliers [48]. - The price of pure benzene has also decreased, with a narrowing price spread despite some market support from futures listings [48]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector is seeing a slight decline in price levels, with PX supply decreasing due to reduced operating rates in some factories [78]. - PTA prices have dropped, and the average profit per ton is negative, indicating challenging market conditions [90]. - The demand for polyester products is weak, with inventory levels rising and production cuts expected [89]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of July 11, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.94%), Hengli Petrochemical (-1.62%), Dongfang Shenghong (+1.76%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+0.51%), Tongkun Co. (+3.51%), and Xin Fengming (+4.50%) [112][113]. - Over the past month, stock price changes were: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+1.18%), Hengli Petrochemical (-3.34%), Dongfang Shenghong (+4.71%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.00%), Tongkun Co. (+3.99%), and Xin Fengming (+6.91%) [112][113].

Core Viewpoint - The successful trial production of the 200,000 tons/year mixed plastic waste resource utilization project by Dongyue Chemical in Guangdong marks a significant advancement in the chemical recycling of waste plastics, establishing a new industrial path for high-value and harmless utilization of waste plastics [1][9]. Industry Development - The establishment of the world's first industrialized waste plastic recycling facility in Guangdong exemplifies the province's efforts to extend the chemical product chain in the petrochemical industry [2][4]. - The petrochemical industry in Guangdong is undergoing a transformation from a focus on refining to driving new chemical materials, with integrated refining and chemical production becoming a core strategy for provinces competing for industrial dominance [3][10]. Market Dynamics - Major petrochemical companies are increasingly investing in Guangdong, enhancing the completeness of the petrochemical industry chain, which is characterized by large-scale projects and significant infrastructure investments [3][5]. - Guangdong aims to exceed a petrochemical industry scale of 2 trillion yuan by 2025, with a focus on creating a leading and world-class green petrochemical industry cluster [6][10]. Technological Innovation - The Dongyue Chemical project utilizes a unique "one-step" process for deep catalytic cracking of mixed waste plastics, achieving a product yield of over 92% without the need for complex sorting of low-value plastics [9][12]. - The project is positioned as a key initiative in the green chemical sector, contributing to sustainable development and the dual carbon strategy [9][13]. Strategic Positioning - Guangdong's petrochemical industry is characterized by a highly concentrated and integrated layout, with a strategic focus on developing a circular economy that connects upstream raw materials with downstream processing [7][13]. - The province's unique geographical advantages and advanced technological equipment position it as a central hub for the global chemical industry transition [10][14]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face challenges such as the need for increased self-sufficiency in high-end chemical materials and the pressure to reduce oil output while increasing the production of high-end chemical products [11][14]. - The focus will be on accelerating the transformation of refining and chemical integration, responding to the growing market demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles [11][13].