1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and烧碱 are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, influenced by the macro - environment, the short - term futures price is strong, but the supply pressure is difficult to ease, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weak [4] - For烧碱, the low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase. The supply is expected to tighten, driving the price up. The demand shows limited improvement, and the supply pressure may intensify later [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5040 yuan/ton (+77), the East China basis is - 160 yuan/ton (-7), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (+3) [2] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4930 yuan/ton (+80) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of calcium carbide is 100 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is - 5.2 dollars/ton (+1.7) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 76.93% (-3.80%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall operation rate is 75.07% (-1.43%) [2] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [2] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2507 yuan/ton (+53), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 56 yuan/ton (-22) [2] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 428.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 328.28 yuan/ton (+88.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1273.53 yuan/ton (+30.00) [3] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.43 tons (-0.99), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.40% (-0.10%) [3] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.89% (-1.36%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 77.80% (+2.63%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - The short - term futures price is strong due to the macro - environment. The supply pressure is high with new capacity expected to be put into production. The demand is weak both domestically and internationally, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [4] 烧碱 - The low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase and supply tightening expectation. The demand from alumina is stable, but the overall demand improvement is limited. The supply pressure may increase later [4] Strategy - For PVC, maintain a neutral view, focus on macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - For烧碱, maintain a neutral view, pay attention to the price trend of liquid chlorine and the inventory - building rhythm of the main downstream [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].