氯碱日报 | 2025-08-20 烧碱情绪暂稳，PVC延续弱势 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5001元/吨（-53）；华东基差-271元/吨（+3）;华南基差-181元/吨（+13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（-50）；华南电石法报价4820元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格630元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（+0）；电石利润-39元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-231元/吨（+21）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-540元/吨（-51）；PVC出口利润18.2美元/吨（+2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存49.3万吨（+1.2）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.92%（+0.37%）；PVC开工率78.84%（+1.09%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.1万吨（-4.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2598元/吨（+31）；山东32%液碱基差27元/吨（-31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - Wait and see; Inter - commodity - None [5] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bullish; Inter - period - Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices; Inter - commodity - None [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, while the PVC market continues to be weak. The supply of PVC is under pressure, and the demand is sluggish, with a weak supply - demand situation. The caustic soda market has good demand and reduced inventory pressure, but attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and production capacity release [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5054 yuan/ton (+100), the East China basis was - 274 yuan/ton (-120), and the South China basis was - 194 yuan/ton (-130) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 39 yuan/ton (-25), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 231 yuan/ton (+21), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 540 yuan/ton (-51), and the PVC export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (+2.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 32.7 tons (-1.0), the social PVC inventory was 49.3 tons (+1.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 79.21% (+1.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 77.92% (+0.37%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.1 tons (-4.1) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2567 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 58 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 613.78 yuan/ton (+67.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1427.74 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 tons (-2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (-1.00%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.64% (-0.09%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.46% (+2.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 86.04% (+1.07%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: After the previous maintenance, production resumed, and the overall operation rate was at a high level supported by chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remained at a low level, and enterprises maintained rigid procurement. The export orders decreased month - on - month. India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with a general increase of 46 - 52 US dollars/ton in the Chinese mainland compared with the previous level. There is expected to be a rush to export in September, and the export is expected to weaken after September [3] - Inventory: The social PVC inventory continued to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value was high. The warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the pressure of the 09 contract warehouse receipts was large. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream operation rate remained at a high level, and the operation rate in Shandong was also high. However, some local enterprises had device load reduction situations, and combined with the planned maintenance of Wanhua in Yantai, the operation rate may decline slightly in the later period. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [4] - Demand side: The profit of alumina was good, and the operation rate was stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants was lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to continue to rise. The non - aluminum operation rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement was acceptable. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda was restricted, and downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, improving the market sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong were acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreased [4] - Future attention points: Attention should still be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production capacity release rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The subsidy for liquid chlorine increased, and the cost support still exists. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [6]

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-31 基本面驱动不足，氯碱持续上行受限 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5159元/吨（-33）；华东基差-119元/吨（+53）;华南基差-119元/吨（+13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价5040元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价5040元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格540元/吨（+5）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润58元/吨（-4）；PVC电石法生产毛利 -134元/吨（+181）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-506元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-11.3美元/吨（+5.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存35.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存42.7万吨（+1.6）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.69%）； PVC乙烯法开工率66.95%（-1.36%）；PVC开工率75.81%（+0.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.5万吨（+9.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2613元/吨（-29）；山东32%液碱基差-19元/吨（+29）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-30 宏观扰动仍存，氯碱震荡整理 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5192元/吨（+43）；华东基差-172元/吨（-83）;华南基差-132元/吨（-43）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价5020元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价5060元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润62元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-134元/吨（+181）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-506元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-17.1美元/吨（+11.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存35.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存42.7万吨（+1.6）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.69%）； PVC乙烯法开工率66.95%（-1.36%）；PVC开工率75.81%（+0.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.5万吨（+9.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2642元/吨（+49）；山东32%液碱基差-48元/吨（-49）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价830元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro atmosphere for PVC has faded, and the market is mainly trading based on fundamentals. The supply is increasing due to restarted devices and new capacity, while demand is weak both domestically and externally, leading to continued inventory accumulation and potential compression of chlor-alkali comprehensive profits [3]. - For caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and the overall supply is expected to remain high. Demand lacks continuous support, and the inventory in factories is increasing. The chlor-alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, and the upward movement of the futures price is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,955 yuan/ton (+21), with an East China basis of -105 yuan/ton (-21) and a South China basis of -115 yuan/ton (-21) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,825 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 107 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -445 yuan/ton (+107), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -621 yuan/ton (+74), and the PVC export profit was -5.7 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1]. - Inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory was 38.2 tons (-0.5), PVC social inventory was 39.3 tons (+2.0), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate was 77.52% (+0.59%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate was 68.31% (-1.92%), and the PVC operation rate was 74.97% (-0.10%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre-sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+3.2) [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some devices have restarted, and the intensity of maintenance has weakened, with high production volume. The new production capacity of Bohua and Wanhua Fujian, totaling 900,000 tons, is expected to be put into production, increasing supply pressure [3]. - Demand: It is the off-season for domestic downstream demand, and the operation rate of downstream products is at a low level compared to the same period. Domestic demand remains weak, and export orders have declined month-on-month. The Indian BIS policy has been extended for 6 months, and the anti-dumping policy has not been implemented. If implemented, it may affect PVC exports [3]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory continues to accumulate [3]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,484 yuan/ton (+18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 141 yuan/ton (-18) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,370 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 425.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,368.33 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.39 tons (+0.96), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the caustic soda operation rate was 82.60% (+2.20%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.28% (+1.72%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 84.55% (+6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis - Supply: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and upstream enterprises that previously reduced production due to high liquid chlorine subsidies have gradually increased their loads. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure with the expected new capacity in July - August [3]. - Demand: The price of alumina has increased, and the profit has been repaired, with an increase in operation rate but still lower than the same period. New production capacity is coming to an end, and non-aluminum demand remains weak, mainly for rigid consumption. Demand lacks continuous support, and the inventory in liquid caustic soda factories is increasing [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and烧碱 are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, influenced by the macro - environment, the short - term futures price is strong, but the supply pressure is difficult to ease, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weak [4] - For烧碱, the low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase. The supply is expected to tighten, driving the price up. The demand shows limited improvement, and the supply pressure may intensify later [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5040 yuan/ton (+77), the East China basis is - 160 yuan/ton (-7), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (+3) [2] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4930 yuan/ton (+80) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of calcium carbide is 100 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is - 5.2 dollars/ton (+1.7) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 76.93% (-3.80%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall operation rate is 75.07% (-1.43%) [2] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [2] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2507 yuan/ton (+53), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 56 yuan/ton (-22) [2] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 428.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 328.28 yuan/ton (+88.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1273.53 yuan/ton (+30.00) [3] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.43 tons (-0.99), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.40% (-0.10%) [3] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.89% (-1.36%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 77.80% (+2.63%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - The short - term futures price is strong due to the macro - environment. The supply pressure is high with new capacity expected to be put into production. The demand is weak both domestically and internationally, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [4] 烧碱 - The low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase and supply tightening expectation. The demand from alumina is stable, but the overall demand improvement is limited. The supply pressure may increase later [4] Strategy - For PVC, maintain a neutral view, focus on macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - For烧碱, maintain a neutral view, pay attention to the price trend of liquid chlorine and the inventory - building rhythm of the main downstream [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC's supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly, and its trend will continue to be weak. Caustic soda's upward space may be limited, and its later performance is affected by the price trend of liquid chlorine [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,892 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -112 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -62 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,875 yuan/ton (-5), the calcium carbide profit is 125 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC's calcium carbide method is -552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC's ethylene method is -695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is -9.0 US dollars/ton (-1.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the operation rate of PVC's calcium carbide method is 80.73% (+0.30%), the operation rate of PVC's ethylene method is 65.46% (-1.92%), and the overall operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,408 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is 61 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: Shandong's 32% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 790 yuan/ton (+20), and Shandong's 50% liquid caustic soda is quoted at 1,270 yuan/ton (+20) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of Shandong's caustic soda is 1,478 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 374.5 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of Shandong's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 139.53 yuan/ton (+59.50), and the comprehensive profit of Northwest's chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) is 1,294.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: In July, upstream devices are under centralized maintenance, but the overall operation rate is expected to decline slightly due to chlor - alkali profit support. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains [3] - Demand side: It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the operation rate of downstream products is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the export orders are decreasing. Uncertain anti - dumping policies may affect exports [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is expected to be weak, and the cost support for PVC's calcium carbide method is weak. The cancellation of the US export restriction on ethane to China may reduce the cost of PVC's ethylene method later [3] Caustic Soda - The sharp decline in Shandong's liquid chlorine price increases the marginal cost of caustic soda, suppressing the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali. The weak demand and increasing supply of liquid chlorine may lead to further price drops and potential passive production cuts of caustic soda [3] - A Shandong alumina factory has raised the purchase price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream low - price restocking supports a slight rebound in the near - term spot price, but the overall demand improvement is limited [3] - Supply side: The operation rate of caustic soda is decreasing due to device maintenance, but new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of the main downstream alumina is rising steadily, while the non - aluminum downstream demand is still weak [3] Strategy - PVC: After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to the fundamentals. It is expected to continue weak and volatile in the short term. With the inventory expected to accumulate, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: There is still room for the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali to be compressed, the inventory reduction is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [5] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC price rebounded due to the market's expectation of supply - side regulation, but the weak supply - demand pattern remains, and the rebound may not last. The caustic soda futures price rose due to concerns about passive production cuts, but its fundamentals also lack positive drivers [4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,930 yuan/ton (+109), the East China basis was - 170 yuan/ton (-69), and the South China basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-59) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 504 yuan/ton (-10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit was - 0.4 dollars/ton (+7.4) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.5 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory was 36.2 tons (+0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (+0.81%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.81% (+0.07%) [2]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.9 tons (-1.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,391 yuan/ton (+33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (-33) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,415 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 552.0 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 70.03 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+50.51) [3]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.04 tons (+2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.58 tons (-0.27), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+1.30%) [3]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina was 80.67% (-0.07%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.57% (-2.23%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, and the overall PVC operating rate decreased slightly. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was put into trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, so the supply side was under pressure [4]. - Demand side: The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and export orders were stable. The BIS standard policy in India was postponed for 6 months, which supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was uncertain [4]. - Inventory: The social PVC inventory stopped falling and rebounded [4]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: The operating rate of upstream caustic soda continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities of Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, so the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina was stable, there were expectations of new capacity in Shandong, and the export support was okay, but the non - aluminum downstream demand was weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory removal was not smooth [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The current weak supply - demand pattern of PVC has not significantly improved. The supply side is under pressure due to new capacity and limited reduction, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and uncertain export prospects. The PVC market is under pressure with low valuation and lack of positive drivers. For caustic soda, the supply pressure is expected to increase, the demand support is weak, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,821 yuan/ton (-68), the East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (+68), and the South China basis is -21 yuan/ton (-22) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,800 yuan/ton (-90) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -504 yuan/ton (-10), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit is -7.9 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 395,000 tons (-6,000), the PVC social inventory is 362,000 tons (+7,000), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 80.43% (+0.81%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the PVC开工 rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 629,000 tons (-19,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2,358 yuan/ton (+39), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 48 yuan/ton (-70) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (-10), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 672.0 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 60.03 yuan/ton (-71.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 390,400 tons (+23,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 25,800 tons (-2,700), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 80.67% (-0.07%), the printing and dyeing East China开工 rate is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, the overall PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, but the chlor - alkali profit supported the production. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was in trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, offsetting the maintenance losses to some extent [3] - Demand side: The downstream product开工 rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and the export orders were stable with continuous growth. The extension of the BIS standard policy in India supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was still uncertain [3] - Inventory: The PVC social inventory stopped falling and rebounded due to sufficient supply and weak demand [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream开工 rate continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities from Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The main downstream alumina开工 rate was stable, the spot price continued to fall, and there were no new production cuts or maintenance in the short term. The non - aluminum downstream demand was weak, and the Shandong spot price might continue to decline [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory increased due to the decline in spot price and low procurement enthusiasm [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. After the macro - sentiment eases, the PVC trend returns to the fundamentals. The supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral. The basis is gradually repaired, but the fundamentals lack positive drivers, the spot price is expected to continue to decline, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [4]