Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal production has significantly decreased year-on-year and month-on-month due to environmental and safety production pressures, leading to a potential new round of price increases for coking coal supported by high operating rates in steel mills and winter storage expectations [1]. Group 1: Supply Constraints - Environmental issues have continuously impacted coal mine production, particularly in the Wuhai region, where open-pit coal mining has faced ongoing restrictions [2]. - Following the introduction of "anti-involution" measures in July, the Shanxi provincial government has strengthened safety production controls, resulting in reduced operating rates across both state-owned and private coal mines [2]. - Coking coal production from major producers has declined, with a notable 13% drop in October compared to the peak in May, and a 4.4% year-on-year decrease in average daily raw coal production from 523 sample mines [2]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - After a rebound in coking coal prices in Q3, Mongolian coal imports surged in August and September, maintaining a high volume of 6 million tons, but recent shipments have declined due to reduced inventory and political instability in Mongolia [3]. - The quality of Mongolian coal has deteriorated, with lower-grade coal now comprising less than 50% of shipments, leading to an increase in the premium for low-sulfur coking coal [3]. - The inventory at ports has decreased by 50% from the beginning of the year, which has shifted the market dynamics, putting pressure on delivery and pricing [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The primary pressure on rising coal prices comes from downstream demand, with steel inventory levels increasing since August, leading to compressed steel margins [4]. - Despite a lack of optimism regarding demand forecasts, steel mills have maintained high operating rates due to better profit margins compared to last year, even while facing slight losses [4]. - The ongoing production cuts in coal mines since July have created a fundamental support for the coking coal market, with winter storage demand expected to sustain prices despite potential seasonal declines in raw material demand [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the supply-side factors are positively influencing the market sentiment for coking coal, while the atmosphere for coking coal price increases is strong [1] - The commentary from Zhengxin Futures indicates that downstream purchasing pace for both coking coal and coke has slowed down, and speculative demand has weakened [1] - Despite the weakened demand, supply disruptions in coal mines are expected to continue until around early November, making it easier for coking coal prices to rise but difficult for them to fall [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the contradiction in the coke market is not significant, and with the support of coking coal costs, it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend [1]

Core Insights - The market anticipates a potential price increase for coke, with participants expecting coke manufacturers to raise prices soon [1] - Traders indicate that the significant rise in coking coal prices is driving this expectation [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a price hike in coke is gaining traction among market participants [1] - The surge in coking coal prices is identified as a key factor influencing the potential increase in coke prices [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]