Core Insights - The market anticipates a potential price increase for coke, with participants expecting coke manufacturers to raise prices soon [1] - Traders indicate that the significant rise in coking coal prices is driving this expectation [1] Group 1 - The expectation of a price hike in coke is gaining traction among market participants [1] - The surge in coking coal prices is identified as a key factor influencing the potential increase in coke prices [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]