进入12月，焦煤期货价格再度开启跌势。截至12月12日午盘收盘，焦煤期货主力2605合约报1016.5元／ 吨，较11月初的阶段性高点累计下跌超20%，单周跌幅为10.83%，创下年内单周最大跌幅。12月12日夜 盘虽出现尾盘短暂上翘，但难改整体空头格局。究其原因，是基本面变化、政策导向与市场情绪共振的 结果。 需求疲弱的负反馈直接传导至煤焦环节。焦化厂焦煤库存可用天数已升至12.32天，采购节奏明显放 缓，主产区坑口竞拍流拍率从11月的15%升至当前的38%，山西吕梁主焦煤坑口价单周下跌90元／吨。 更值得关注的是，焦炭第二轮提降已于12月12日落地，累计降幅达110元／吨，焦企利润被压缩，进一 步削弱其对焦煤的采购意愿与议价能力。 上下游环节均处于累库状态 在下游采购节奏放缓的背景下，上游矿山库存11月中旬出现拐点，近期其精煤累库呈现加速趋势。中游 流通环节成为累库核心，北方主要港口焦煤库存连续4周回升，目前至286万吨，其中蒙煤占比超60%， 港口堆存已接近警戒水平，部分贸易商被迫降价抛货。下游虽未大幅累库，但焦化厂和钢厂的焦煤库存 可用天数正在攀升，其采购节奏明显放缓。 后市展望 年底进口煤通关放量 ...

期货研究报告2025.12.10 品种点睛 焦煤的下跌是否可持续？ 一、焦煤价格下跌核心逻辑解析 1、供给端：进口冲击显著，供应偏紧转为宽松 进口煤是当前最大的供应压力源。统计局的数据显示，自8月以来，炼焦煤月度进口量连续超过1000万 吨，处于历史高位，而蒙煤进口大幅度增加，今年前11个月进口蒙煤7380万吨，为达成全年进口量目 标，11月通关需持续冲量，截止11月底，过货量达全年目标约86%，预计12月通关仍有发力。 国内方面，虽然当前煤矿产量因年度任务完成、安全检查等因素处于同期低位，但产量并未大幅下降， Mysteel统计11月523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.8万吨，环比上月减少0.5万吨，波动不大。所以 结合进口煤的补充，市场整体供应已由偏紧逐步转为宽松。 2、需求端：季节性淡季与产业链负反馈，直接需求萎缩 冬季钢钢厂检修增多，根据Mysteel的统计，247家铁水日均产量已从10月的240万吨平均水平降至12月 初的232万吨左右，进而带动原料端需求的承压。另外，当前钢厂利润仍处于亏损状态，铁水产量仍然 有向下调整的预期。 由于钢价和钢厂利润表现不佳，钢厂不仅减少采购，还持续向下游的焦化企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures prices have sharply declined, showing a "V" shaped trend, with a total drop of 205 yuan/ton or 15.55% since the peak on October 31 [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of November 20, the coking coal futures contract has experienced a significant drop in price, reflecting market concerns about a peak in coal prices [1] - The price of Mongolian coal has also decreased by approximately 160 yuan/ton, contributing to the overall decline in coking coal prices [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in coking coal prices is attributed to three main factors: reduced production by coking plants due to losses, increased expectations of coking coal supply following a national energy supply meeting, and a rise in Mongolian coal imports [3] - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises has decreased from 661,200 tons in early October to 629,700 tons currently, indicating a sustained drop in coking coal demand [3] - Steel mills are experiencing losses and reducing production, leading to concerns about negative feedback in the black industry chain [3][4] Group 3: Inventory and Market Conditions - As of November 21, the iron water production of 247 sample steel mills has declined to 2.3628 million tons per day, down from a peak of 2.4081 million tons per day in early October, reflecting a decrease in demand [4] - Coking enterprises are facing a significant drop in profits and reduced operating rates, with coking production falling to 1.089 million tons per day from a peak of 1.1262 million tons per day in early October [4] - There has been a notable decrease in coking coal inventory at steel mills and independent coking plants, with a reduction of 240,000 tons last week, marking the first decline in five weeks [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent weakening of fundamentals, there are no conditions for a further significant drop in coking coal prices, as total inventory has decreased rather than increased [5] - There remains potential for winter storage in the coming months, despite high inventory levels at downstream steel and coking plants [5] - The overall coking coal market is expected to remain in a tight balance in the fourth quarter, with good sales conditions for coal mines and limited current inventory [5]