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金信期货日刊-20250724
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened strongly and hit the daily limit, with a gain of 11% and closing at 1,135.5 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market again [3]. - The market expects a tightening of coking coal supply due to the National Energy Administration's verification notice on over - production of coal mines on July 22, leading to a large influx of funds and pushing the price to the limit up [4]. - In the A - share market, the three major indexes showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,600 points during the session and finally closing with a high - level doji star [9]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened and hit the daily limit, with a 11% increase, closing at 1,135.5 yuan [3]. - **Supply Factors**: The National Energy Administration's notice on coal mine over - production, safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi, rainfall affecting production and transportation in main producing areas, and a decline in Mongolian coal imports have all contributed to a supply gap [4]. - **Demand Factors**: Steel mills have good profits, high hot metal production, and coking enterprises' second price increase is likely to be implemented, leading to strong downstream demand [4]. Stock Index Futures - The US Treasury Secretary announced that the third round of China - US consultations will be held next week, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate [8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, after sufficient weekly adjustments, gold is likely to resume its upward trend and is expected to fluctuate upwards [13]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, hot metal production remains high due to good steel mill profits, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, it is not yet certain that the upward trend has ended, and the focus is on protecting profits [17]. Glass - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals, with no major cold - repair situation in the supply side, marginal reduction in factory inventories, and weak restocking motivation for downstream deep - processing orders. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, the focus is on protecting profits [18][19]. Palm Oil - The US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices and helping the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [21].