热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 黑色建材组 相关品种：焦煤、焦炭 昨日黑色板块商品普遍下跌，双焦领跌盘面。截止收盘，焦煤主力合约2605收盘价1124.0元，跌幅 4.50%，焦炭主力合约2605收盘价1673.5元/吨，跌幅3.54%。 3、 元旦后蒙煤通关持续高位，国内焦煤产量也开始恢复，焦煤供应压力增加。全口径焦煤连续两月累 库，压制价格表现。 短期焦煤基本面矛盾相对可控，距离春节还有三周，节前仍有补库预期存在，叠加寒潮来临，动力煤价 格有止跌企稳迹象，为焦煤价格带来支撑。预计短期焦煤下行空间有限，维持震荡运行。焦炭供需矛盾 不足，第一轮提涨迟迟未能落地，短期跟随焦煤价格波动。关注焦煤供应政策、钢厂利润、焦化利润、 成材需求等 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 ...

Core Viewpoints - The main futures contract for coking coal showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 1179.0 yuan, with a current price of 1158.5 yuan, reflecting a 1.00% increase [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Zhongyuan Futures expects coking coal to maintain a range-bound fluctuation due to a significant decrease in inventory at the Ganqimaodu port during the holiday, low market inquiry sentiment post-holiday, and a return to normal supply from domestic mines [1] - Guantong Futures indicates that coking coal will primarily experience narrow fluctuations, with sufficient supply from Mongolia and a gradual recovery in domestic mining operations expected to increase coking coal supply [2] - Hualian Futures suggests a range trading strategy for the coking coal 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1100-1250 yuan/ton, due to concerns about downstream steel demand and potential inventory issues [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually increase as domestic mining resumes operations, despite a 4% decrease in mining activity compared to the previous week [2] - Downstream iron and steel production remains high, but there are concerns about whether steel demand can sustain this level, particularly if inventory issues worsen [3] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with trade enterprises remaining observant and no significant drivers for demand observed in the real estate sector [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - In July, coking coal prices surged due to expectations of "anti-involution," but subsequently retreated as trading limits were adjusted and optimistic expectations were not fully realized [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Optimistic sentiment dominated the market in July, with significant increases in black metal prices, particularly coking coal. However, after major meetings concluded, the realization of strong expectations was limited, leading to a correction in sentiment by the end of July [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and advance capacity governance in key industries, indicating a shift in policy language from previous meetings [2] - PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a decline to 49.3% in July, raising concerns about a slowdown in manufacturing demand [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The recovery of coking coal supply has been slow, with domestic coal mines gradually resuming production but still facing challenges due to underground conditions and safety regulations. Current production levels remain significantly below earlier highs [3] - As of August 1, daily average production of premium and raw coal from 523 sample mines was 776,700 tons and 1,935,600 tons, respectively, showing a recovery but still below the year's peaks [3] - Concerns about potential production cuts have arisen following the National Energy Administration's directive to halt operations at mines exceeding their approved production capacity by 10% [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Coking coal imports showed a positive recovery, with June imports reaching 9.1084 million tons, a 23.31% increase month-on-month. However, the cumulative import volume for the first half of the year was down 7.36% year-on-year [4] - Following the conclusion of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, normal customs operations resumed, leading to an increase in daily traffic at key ports [4] - The narrowing price gap between Australian coking coal and domestic coal may lead to increased imports [4] Group 4: Demand Performance - Coking coal demand remains strong, supported by high iron and steel production levels. Daily average iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4071 million tons as of August 1 [5] - The inventory levels of traders and end-users have decreased significantly, prompting a replenishment cycle as supply constraints emerged in June [5] - The profitability of steel mills remains robust, and the ongoing price increases for coking coal indicate sustained demand [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened strongly and hit the daily limit, with a gain of 11% and closing at 1,135.5 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market again [3]. - The market expects a tightening of coking coal supply due to the National Energy Administration's verification notice on over - production of coal mines on July 22, leading to a large influx of funds and pushing the price to the limit up [4]. - In the A - share market, the three major indexes showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,600 points during the session and finally closing with a high - level doji star [9]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened and hit the daily limit, with a 11% increase, closing at 1,135.5 yuan [3]. - **Supply Factors**: The National Energy Administration's notice on coal mine over - production, safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi, rainfall affecting production and transportation in main producing areas, and a decline in Mongolian coal imports have all contributed to a supply gap [4]. - **Demand Factors**: Steel mills have good profits, high hot metal production, and coking enterprises' second price increase is likely to be implemented, leading to strong downstream demand [4]. Stock Index Futures - The US Treasury Secretary announced that the third round of China - US consultations will be held next week, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate [8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, after sufficient weekly adjustments, gold is likely to resume its upward trend and is expected to fluctuate upwards [13]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, hot metal production remains high due to good steel mill profits, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, it is not yet certain that the upward trend has ended, and the focus is on protecting profits [17]. Glass - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals, with no major cold - repair situation in the supply side, marginal reduction in factory inventories, and weak restocking motivation for downstream deep - processing orders. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, the focus is on protecting profits [18][19]. Palm Oil - The US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices and helping the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [21].