华联期货：焦煤2601合约区间操作 中原期货：预计焦煤维持区间震荡运行 假期期间甘其毛都口岸库存下降明显，节后市场询盘情绪较低，贸易企业保持观望。国内部分矿山供应 恢复正常，竞拍仍以降价为主。焦炭价格趋稳，铁水暂时维持高位，对双焦仍有支撑，预计维持区间震 荡运行。焦煤1050-1300，焦炭1550-1800。 冠通期货：焦煤窄幅波动为主 基本面来看，十一假期内通关暂停，节后陆续恢复，整体蒙煤的供应量保持充足。消息称中蒙两国出口 和贸易促进工作组在甘其毛都口岸开展工作，或将自动化集装箱运输（AGV）终端改为24小时运作； 将过境运输车辆数量由每天1500辆提升至2000–2500辆。进口煤数量有继续增加预期。国内矿山开工下 降，环比上周下降4%左右，随着节后矿山的复产，预计焦煤供应量逐步回升，本期焦煤库存增加。反 内卷限产煤矿问题在盘面前期兑现完成，短期供应维持平稳。需求端，下游铁水产量维持高位，下游钢 厂刚需拿货，金九银十旺季相对平稳，焦炭开启二轮提降，终端假期内房地产政策多发，但数据显示依 然低迷，无明显驱动，焦煤窄幅波动为主，关注后续煤矿事故发酵情况。 10月10日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上 ...

供应恢复偏慢 焦煤市场运行逻辑回归产业端，且近期供应影响更大。国内煤矿7月虽然陆续复产，产量逐步回升，但 煤矿受到井下条件影响，叠加安全、环保等因素的扰动，国内炼焦煤产量恢复偏慢，供应显著低于前期 高位。截至8月1日当周，钢联统计的523家炼焦煤样本矿山精煤、原煤日均产量分别为77.67万吨、 193.56万吨，从低位累计回升3.85万吨、8.54万吨，但相较年内81.69万吨、202.10万吨的高点存有差 距。此外，有关煤矿倒查超产消息不断发酵，7月10日国家能源局发布相关文件通知，要求2025年单个 煤矿产量超过核定产能10%的煤矿停产整顿，引发市场对煤矿后期减产的担忧。据钢联调研反馈，山西 吕梁、长治已有煤矿收到相关通知，个别煤矿甚至停产。 受 "反内卷"预期提振，7月焦煤价格强势上涨，领涨商品市场。不过，随着交易所调整交易限额，叠加 强预期兑现有限，市场乐观情绪修正，焦煤期价高位回落。 乐观情绪修正 7月预期主导市场，黑色金属集体上行，其中焦煤涨幅明显。随着重大会议结束，强预期兑现有限，叠 加经济数据有所走弱，7月底乐观情绪迎来修正。7月30日，中央政治局会议指出，要依法依规治理企业 无序竞争，推进重 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened strongly and hit the daily limit, with a gain of 11% and closing at 1,135.5 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market again [3]. - The market expects a tightening of coking coal supply due to the National Energy Administration's verification notice on over - production of coal mines on July 22, leading to a large influx of funds and pushing the price to the limit up [4]. - In the A - share market, the three major indexes showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,600 points during the session and finally closing with a high - level doji star [9]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened and hit the daily limit, with a 11% increase, closing at 1,135.5 yuan [3]. - **Supply Factors**: The National Energy Administration's notice on coal mine over - production, safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi, rainfall affecting production and transportation in main producing areas, and a decline in Mongolian coal imports have all contributed to a supply gap [4]. - **Demand Factors**: Steel mills have good profits, high hot metal production, and coking enterprises' second price increase is likely to be implemented, leading to strong downstream demand [4]. Stock Index Futures - The US Treasury Secretary announced that the third round of China - US consultations will be held next week, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate [8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, after sufficient weekly adjustments, gold is likely to resume its upward trend and is expected to fluctuate upwards [13]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, hot metal production remains high due to good steel mill profits, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, it is not yet certain that the upward trend has ended, and the focus is on protecting profits [17]. Glass - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals, with no major cold - repair situation in the supply side, marginal reduction in factory inventories, and weak restocking motivation for downstream deep - processing orders. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, the focus is on protecting profits [18][19]. Palm Oil - The US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices and helping the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [21].