1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Coking Coal - In the short - term, coking coal supply will be tight as some mines enter the holiday and more will shut down for the Spring Festival, while demand has declined as some coking enterprises have completed winter storage replenishment. The overall coking coal price is stable but slightly weak [2]. - With the downstream coking and steel enterprises in stable production and still having some replenishment needs, but limited by poor steel mill profits, weak terminal demand, and shrinking steel market trading volume, the demand for coking coal will be limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short - term [2]. 2.2. Coke - After the first round of coke price increase, coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased, but high raw coal prices limit their profit and production increase space. Some low - inventory steel mills still have replenishment needs, and coking enterprises' coke inventory is decreasing. However, due to the volatile finished product prices and obvious off - season characteristics, the steel mills' replenishment is limited. The coke supply - demand structure is approaching balance, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable or slightly strong in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term as more coal mines will shut down for the Spring Festival. Some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, demand has decreased, new orders are few, auction conditions have weakened, and the overall price is stable but weak [2]. 3.1.2. Coke - After the first - round price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, most are operating at normal loads, supply is relatively stable. Although some coal prices have declined, the overall coking coal price is still high, providing cost support [8]. 3.2. Basis Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - The spot market price is 1,180, and the basis is 38.5, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. 3.2.2. Coke - The spot market price is 1,620, and the basis is - 60.5, indicating the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. 3.3. Inventory Analysis 3.3.1. Coking Coal - Steel mill inventory is 801万吨, port inventory is 295万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861万吨, and the total sample inventory is 1,957万吨, a decrease of 21万吨 from last week [2]. 3.3.2. Coke - Steel mill inventory is 626万吨, port inventory is 187万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45万吨, and the total sample inventory is 858万吨, a decrease of 1万吨 from last week [8]. 3.4. Market Trend Analysis 3.4.1. Coking Coal - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [2][3]. 3.4.2. Coke - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing [8]. 3.5. Price Information 3.5.1. Coking Coal - Imported Russian and Australian coking coal spot prices at various ports are provided on February 2, 2026, with some prices having changes [11]. 3.5.2. Coke - Port metallurgical coke price indices on February 2, 2026, including different types, ports, origins, and prices, are shown, and most prices remain unchanged [13]. 3.6. Inventory Changes - Coking coal port inventory is 295万吨, a decrease of 0.1万吨 from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1万吨, an increase of 1万吨 from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3万吨, a decrease of 69.2万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 42.5万吨, an increase of 3.5万吨 from last week [25]. - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8万吨, an increase of 4.3万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 626.7万吨, a decrease of 13.3万吨 from last week [30]. 3.7. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Since mid - January, the coking coal futures have experienced a correction and are currently in a low - level range - bound pattern. This is due to the lack of direct policy support and the weak fundamentals of coking coal. However, winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival limit the downside space. In the absence of policy intervention, coking coal futures lack the momentum for a one - sided upward movement, but there is also strong resistance to further short - term declines. The main contract is expected to remain in a low - level range [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Futures: Since mid - January, the main contract of coking coal futures has fallen from around 1,250 yuan/ton to about 1,100 yuan/ton and then entered a range - bound state. In the past year, the upward movement of coking coal futures has mainly relied on industrial policies or macro - expectations. This year, in the absence of direct policy support, the market is mainly driven by fundamental factors [2][6]. - Spot: In January, the coking coal spot market performed well, with no obvious decline in the prices of mainstream coal types. As of January 23, the prices of some coal types such as Shanxi Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal, Shanxi Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, and Meng 5 clean coal at Tangshan Port all increased month - on - month. Short - term winter storage and the expectation of coal mine shutdowns during the Spring Festival provided support, but in the long - term, the low downstream demand and the loose supply - demand contradiction of coking coal limit the continuous upward movement of coal prices [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Domestic coal mines maintained stable production before the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the seaborne coal arrivals in the first two weeks of January decreased compared with December but increased by 13.8% year - on - year. The Mongolian coal imported by rail increased significantly in December last year. Although the daily vehicle - passing number at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased briefly in January, it gradually recovered in the middle of the month. As of January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons [2][4]. - Demand: Since January, the multiple attempts to increase the price of coke have failed. Coking enterprises are suffering heavy losses, resulting in low production enthusiasm. The latest data shows that the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 66 yuan/ton, and the total daily output of coke in independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants is 1,102,100 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase of 40 tons [4]. - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory within the statistical scope this week is 25.4473 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 383,800 tons, indicating a loose supply situation. The inventory accumulation mainly occurs in downstream independent coking plants, reflecting the ongoing winter storage demand, which supports the spot price [4].

从供应端来看，国内煤矿在春节前保持平稳生产节奏，蒙煤进口量较1月初出现回升。需求端，焦炭现 货多轮提涨计划未能落地，焦企亏损程度持续加深，焦炭日均产量环比回落。不过，下游钢厂当前利润 处于合理区间，冬储补库仍在延续，短期内对煤价形成一定支撑。 近年来，受终端房地产市场与基建需求疲软影响，焦煤价格上行更多依赖产业政策发力或宏观预期提 振。考虑到冬储需求支撑，以及煤矿春节期间停产休假预期升温，焦煤价格持续下行面临较强阻力。预 计春节前焦煤期货或延续区间震荡，后续重点关注政策端是否释放利多信号。 1月中旬以来，焦煤期货再度迎来回调，主力合约价格从1250元／吨附近一度回落至1100元／吨，随后 进入震荡整理阶段。本轮回调源于政策端缺乏利多支撑以及基本面持续疲软。 现货市场方面，1月主流煤种价格暂无明显下行迹象。据统计，截至1月23日，山西临汾低硫主焦煤车板 含税价报1660元／吨，月环比上涨50元／吨；山西吕梁中硫主焦煤车板含税价报1318元／吨，月环比上 涨30元／吨；蒙5#精煤唐山口岸到站价报1410元／吨，月环比上涨40元／吨，折合期货仓单成本约1180 元／吨。短期来看，冬储补库需求释放、煤矿春节停产放假预 ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in spot prices for coke has occurred four times within a month, attributed to multiple factors including reduced demand from steel mills and a decrease in iron water production [1] - Steel mills have entered a loss phase since October last year, leading to a 12-week consecutive decline in iron water output, which has weakened the demand for coke [1] - The inventory ratio of coke in steel and coking plants is at a three-year low of 7.03, with large and medium-sized steel mills having only 12.1 days of available coke, which is 1.1 days lower than the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Despite a temporary recovery in coking profits, there has been no significant increase in coke supply, with daily production remaining stable between 620,000 to 650,000 tons and capacity utilization between 71.5% to 73% [2] - The recent decline in coking coal prices has not led to a notable increase in coking coal production, with a decrease of 49,500 tons in daily output reported in the last week of December [2] - There are signs of recovery in daily iron water production, with an increase of 8,800 tons in the last two weeks of December, indicating potential for further growth in iron water output [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 1770.0 yuan, with a current price of 1773.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.31% [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term coking coal market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to high raw material prices and reduced production from coking enterprises, leading to low inventory levels [2] - Nanhua Futures predicts a potential strong performance in coking coal prices in the short term, driven by downstream steel mills increasing their inventory and a tightening supply due to reduced mining activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with coking coal prices showing signs of a potential peak, while downstream demand remains strong due to inventory replenishment needs [5] Supply - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 83.96%, down by 0.68% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 8.48 million tons per week, a decrease of 68,000 tons [2] - The inventory of raw coal stands at 1.49 million tons, down by 12.54% week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is 4.33 million tons per week, down by 4.70% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.91 million tons, down by 51,000 tons [2] Demand - As of October 23, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 646,000 tons, down by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills produce an average of 461,000 tons of coke daily, an increase of 2000 tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.40 million tons, down by 10,500 tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.71%, up by 0.44% [3] - The profitability rate of steel mills is 47.62%, down by 7.79% week-on-week [3] Inventory - As of October 23, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and border areas) is 36.77 million tons, an increase of 606,000 tons week-on-week [4] - The inventory at 523 coal mines decreased by 25,800 tons to 414,500 tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants decreased by 9,800 tons to 464,800 tons [4] - Coking plants' inventory increased by 32,300 tons to 1.03 million tons, while steel mills' inventory decreased by 5,400 tons to 783,000 tons [4] Market Strategy - The short-term adjustments in coking coal prices do not affect the bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, with recommendations to buy coking coal at lower prices within the range of 1,150 to 1,350 [5] - There is a suggestion to arbitrage between coking coal and coke, while caution is advised due to significant market fluctuations [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the coking coal market, particularly in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions of China, with significant implications from Mongolian coal imports and domestic production dynamics [1][2][4][8][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: - Coking coal prices are currently strong, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at approximately 1,540-1,550 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's Fengwei index price is stable at 1,270 CNY/ton [1][3]. - Recent auction prices for coking coal have surged, with prices exceeding market expectations by around 200 CNY/ton in some cases [2]. 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - There is a notable decrease in Mongolian coal supply, dropping from 700,000-1,000,000 tons per month to 127,000-128,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance [1][4]. - The reduction in Mongolian coal is expected to create a price increase potential of 100-200 CNY for coke, especially with winter storage needs [4]. 3. **Impact of Domestic Production**: - Coking coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is not expected to increase significantly in Q4 due to environmental policies and safety inspections [1][8]. - Geological conditions are also limiting production capabilities in certain areas, such as Shanxi and Shandong [9]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook**: - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual price increase due to stable demand from steel mills and a recovering economy [2][14]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, the trend is leaning towards improvement, with steel mill profits expected to rise [14][15]. 5. **Coke Price Limitations**: - The rise in coke prices may be constrained by weak performance in the finished steel market, particularly due to a downturn in the real estate sector affecting rebar prices [5][19]. - If demand or exports decline, steel mills may reduce production, exerting downward pressure on raw material prices [5]. 6. **Future Price Projections**: - Projections for Q4 indicate a potential price range for coking coal between 1,200 and 1,300 CNY, with a broader forecast for 2026 maintaining a range of 1,000 to 1,600 CNY [21][22]. 7. **Global Supply Chain Context**: - The global coking coal supply-demand balance is relatively stable, with China's economic recovery expected to drive overall demand and prices upward [20]. - The dynamics of international trade, particularly with countries like Australia and Mongolia, will continue to influence the market [20]. Additional Important Insights - The average mining depth in Shanxi exceeds 800 meters, which may impact production costs and feasibility [12]. - The calculation of coal resource lifespan is based on proven reserves and exploitable reserves, indicating that coking coal resources in China are not nearing depletion [10][11]. - The potential for steel mill production adjustments could lead to increased coking coal prices if high-profit products are prioritized [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coking coal market, highlighting the interplay between supply constraints, price dynamics, and broader economic factors.

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black commodities has generally weakened, with coking coal main contract dropping over 4%, currently priced at 1164.5 yuan/ton [1] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the floating value of long-term coking coal contracts is projected to increase by 10 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.7% from August 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other ministries have released a plan to stabilize growth in the steel industry, emphasizing the need to ensure supply and stabilize prices for coking coal and other raw materials, which may ease supply-side tightening expectations [2] Group 2 - Institutions report a slight increase in coking coal production, with pre-holiday inventory replenishment nearly complete, leading to a potential weakening in spot auction transactions [3] - Coking coal total inventory has significantly increased, while production-side inventory has slightly decreased, with mines resuming operations amid strict production checks [3] - The market outlook suggests that the difficulty in maintaining coking coal prices will increase, with expectations of price fluctuations in the near term [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The coking coal market is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with average daily sales exceeding average daily production over the past three months, leading to a decline in inventory and supporting prices [1][2] - Current coking coal prices, despite a recent rebound, remain at the lowest levels since 2017, causing operational difficulties for companies [1][5] - The market is influenced by various regional cost structures, with Shanxi having lower costs compared to Henan and Anhui, which face profitability challenges [6] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The coking coal supply has decreased significantly due to recent policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with August's average daily production hitting its lowest level of the year [2] - **Price Trends**: Coking coal prices have shown a two-month increase, primarily driven by changes in supply-demand relationships and the rigid demand from downstream steel and coking plants [10] - **Impact of Steel Industry**: The steel industry's production levels are not expected to decrease significantly in the short to medium term, with potential new demand from India's steel growth [11][12] - **Policy Implications**: The steel industry's response to profitability through production adjustments could have mixed effects on coking coal prices, necessitating supportive policies for sustainable industry health [14][15] Additional Important Insights - **International Supply**: Limited increases in overseas coking coal supply have minimal impact on China, with domestic production and imports from Mongolia and Russia being more significant [3][16] - **Future Production Outlook**: Current data indicates that coking coal production recovery is unlikely in the near term, with significant reductions expected due to major events and seasonal demand [4] - **Cost Structures**: The cost of coking coal varies significantly by region, affecting profitability, particularly in northeastern enterprises [6][8] - **Market Comparisons**: Historical trends show that imported coking coal prices have recently exceeded domestic prices due to domestic price declines [21] - **Long-term Market Cycles**: Future coking coal price cycles may emerge due to increased demand from India and potential supply reductions from mine closures [32] Conclusion - The coking coal market is currently characterized by low prices, operational challenges for companies, and a complex interplay of domestic and international supply-demand factors. Future price movements will depend on policy support, production adjustments in the steel industry, and external market influences.