Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 1770.0 yuan, with a current price of 1773.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.31% [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term coking coal market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to high raw material prices and reduced production from coking enterprises, leading to low inventory levels [2] - Nanhua Futures predicts a potential strong performance in coking coal prices in the short term, driven by downstream steel mills increasing their inventory and a tightening supply due to reduced mining activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with coking coal prices showing signs of a potential peak, while downstream demand remains strong due to inventory replenishment needs [5] Supply - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 83.96%, down by 0.68% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 8.48 million tons per week, a decrease of 68,000 tons [2] - The inventory of raw coal stands at 1.49 million tons, down by 12.54% week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is 4.33 million tons per week, down by 4.70% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.91 million tons, down by 51,000 tons [2] Demand - As of October 23, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 646,000 tons, down by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills produce an average of 461,000 tons of coke daily, an increase of 2000 tons [3] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.40 million tons, down by 10,500 tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.71%, up by 0.44% [3] - The profitability rate of steel mills is 47.62%, down by 7.79% week-on-week [3] Inventory - As of October 23, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and border areas) is 36.77 million tons, an increase of 606,000 tons week-on-week [4] - The inventory at 523 coal mines decreased by 25,800 tons to 414,500 tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants decreased by 9,800 tons to 464,800 tons [4] - Coking plants' inventory increased by 32,300 tons to 1.03 million tons, while steel mills' inventory decreased by 5,400 tons to 783,000 tons [4] Market Strategy - The short-term adjustments in coking coal prices do not affect the bullish outlook for the fourth quarter, with recommendations to buy coking coal at lower prices within the range of 1,150 to 1,350 [5] - There is a suggestion to arbitrage between coking coal and coke, while caution is advised due to significant market fluctuations [5]

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the coking coal market, particularly in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions of China, with significant implications from Mongolian coal imports and domestic production dynamics [1][2][4][8][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Trends**: - Coking coal prices are currently strong, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at approximately 1,540-1,550 CNY/ton, while Shanxi's Fengwei index price is stable at 1,270 CNY/ton [1][3]. - Recent auction prices for coking coal have surged, with prices exceeding market expectations by around 200 CNY/ton in some cases [2]. 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - There is a notable decrease in Mongolian coal supply, dropping from 700,000-1,000,000 tons per month to 127,000-128,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance [1][4]. - The reduction in Mongolian coal is expected to create a price increase potential of 100-200 CNY for coke, especially with winter storage needs [4]. 3. **Impact of Domestic Production**: - Coking coal production in major regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is not expected to increase significantly in Q4 due to environmental policies and safety inspections [1][8]. - Geological conditions are also limiting production capabilities in certain areas, such as Shanxi and Shandong [9]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook**: - The overall sentiment in the coking coal market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual price increase due to stable demand from steel mills and a recovering economy [2][14]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, the trend is leaning towards improvement, with steel mill profits expected to rise [14][15]. 5. **Coke Price Limitations**: - The rise in coke prices may be constrained by weak performance in the finished steel market, particularly due to a downturn in the real estate sector affecting rebar prices [5][19]. - If demand or exports decline, steel mills may reduce production, exerting downward pressure on raw material prices [5]. 6. **Future Price Projections**: - Projections for Q4 indicate a potential price range for coking coal between 1,200 and 1,300 CNY, with a broader forecast for 2026 maintaining a range of 1,000 to 1,600 CNY [21][22]. 7. **Global Supply Chain Context**: - The global coking coal supply-demand balance is relatively stable, with China's economic recovery expected to drive overall demand and prices upward [20]. - The dynamics of international trade, particularly with countries like Australia and Mongolia, will continue to influence the market [20]. Additional Important Insights - The average mining depth in Shanxi exceeds 800 meters, which may impact production costs and feasibility [12]. - The calculation of coal resource lifespan is based on proven reserves and exploitable reserves, indicating that coking coal resources in China are not nearing depletion [10][11]. - The potential for steel mill production adjustments could lead to increased coking coal prices if high-profit products are prioritized [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coking coal market, highlighting the interplay between supply constraints, price dynamics, and broader economic factors.

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black commodities has generally weakened, with coking coal main contract dropping over 4%, currently priced at 1164.5 yuan/ton [1] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the floating value of long-term coking coal contracts is projected to increase by 10 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.7% from August 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other ministries have released a plan to stabilize growth in the steel industry, emphasizing the need to ensure supply and stabilize prices for coking coal and other raw materials, which may ease supply-side tightening expectations [2] Group 2 - Institutions report a slight increase in coking coal production, with pre-holiday inventory replenishment nearly complete, leading to a potential weakening in spot auction transactions [3] - Coking coal total inventory has significantly increased, while production-side inventory has slightly decreased, with mines resuming operations amid strict production checks [3] - The market outlook suggests that the difficulty in maintaining coking coal prices will increase, with expectations of price fluctuations in the near term [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The coking coal market is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with average daily sales exceeding average daily production over the past three months, leading to a decline in inventory and supporting prices [1][2] - Current coking coal prices, despite a recent rebound, remain at the lowest levels since 2017, causing operational difficulties for companies [1][5] - The market is influenced by various regional cost structures, with Shanxi having lower costs compared to Henan and Anhui, which face profitability challenges [6] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The coking coal supply has decreased significantly due to recent policies aimed at curbing overproduction, with August's average daily production hitting its lowest level of the year [2] - **Price Trends**: Coking coal prices have shown a two-month increase, primarily driven by changes in supply-demand relationships and the rigid demand from downstream steel and coking plants [10] - **Impact of Steel Industry**: The steel industry's production levels are not expected to decrease significantly in the short to medium term, with potential new demand from India's steel growth [11][12] - **Policy Implications**: The steel industry's response to profitability through production adjustments could have mixed effects on coking coal prices, necessitating supportive policies for sustainable industry health [14][15] Additional Important Insights - **International Supply**: Limited increases in overseas coking coal supply have minimal impact on China, with domestic production and imports from Mongolia and Russia being more significant [3][16] - **Future Production Outlook**: Current data indicates that coking coal production recovery is unlikely in the near term, with significant reductions expected due to major events and seasonal demand [4] - **Cost Structures**: The cost of coking coal varies significantly by region, affecting profitability, particularly in northeastern enterprises [6][8] - **Market Comparisons**: Historical trends show that imported coking coal prices have recently exceeded domestic prices due to domestic price declines [21] - **Long-term Market Cycles**: Future coking coal price cycles may emerge due to increased demand from India and potential supply reductions from mine closures [32] Conclusion - The coking coal market is currently characterized by low prices, operational challenges for companies, and a complex interplay of domestic and international supply-demand factors. Future price movements will depend on policy support, production adjustments in the steel industry, and external market influences.

Summary of Coking Coal Conference Call Industry Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of coking coal globally, holding approximately 26% of the world's total reserves [4] - Domestic coking coal production has shown a steady decline in recent years, with a projected output of about 470 million tons in 2024, down 4.3% from previous years [4][7] - The supply of coking coal is primarily concentrated in North and East China, with Shanxi province accounting for over 50% of production [6] Key Points and Arguments - The global supply of coking coal is dominated by Australia, which accounts for over 50% of global trade, followed by Russia (13%) and Mongolia, which is the largest flexible source for China [7][8] - Domestic supply is inelastic, with the main flexibility coming from Mongolian imports, which are closely linked to domestic market prices [10] - The demand for coking coal is primarily driven by the steel industry, with weak demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors impacting overall consumption [12] - Coking coal prices are expected to have limited upside potential, primarily influenced by supply-side reductions, especially due to policy enforcement against overproduction [5][14] Recent Market Performance - The coking coal market experienced a poor performance in the first half of the year due to weak demand from real estate and infrastructure, but rebounded strongly from June onwards, with futures prices rising significantly [13] - The market saw a rebound of approximately 400 yuan, with futures prices increasing from 709 yuan to nearly 1,400 yuan [13] Profitability and Stock Performance - Many coking coal companies reported significant declines in profitability in Q2, with some high-cost producers facing losses [15] - The overall coking coal stock sector is expected to struggle for substantial opportunities due to weak demand and lack of significant supply reductions, with more focus on thematic trading opportunities [16] - Key stocks of interest include Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huaibei Mining, which are characterized by stable income due to long-term contracts [17] Future Outlook - The overall price of coking coal is unlikely to see strong increases without significant supply reductions, and the bottom price level is expected to be supported by production costs [14] - Investment opportunities are anticipated to be thematic, with potential for small gains during policy-driven price fluctuations [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recent enhanced coal mine safety inspections and accident supervision have restricted coking coal production growth. Amid the steel - coking game, downstream coking enterprises have slowed down raw material procurement, and the trading atmosphere of coking coal is average with more online auction failures and price drops. The total sample inventory has decreased. The iron - water output remains high in the short - term, but the sales of downstream finished products have weakened, and environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills also pressure coking coal demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coking enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, but other regions have increased production due to profit recovery, resulting in a tight balance of coke supply. Currently, both supply and demand of coke have weakened in the short - term, but overall supply remains tight as other steel mills are still productive and their raw material inventories are low. It is expected that the short - term coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **每日观点** - **焦煤**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is neutral; inventory is positive; the disk is neutral; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is negative; inventory is positive; the disk is negative; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. **价格** - Mysteel's port metallurgical coke price index on August 28 shows that most prices have decreased, except for some dry - quenched coke prices which have increased [10]. **库存情况** - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. **其他数据** - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing significant price increases, with the main contract rising by 2.05% to 1244.5 CNY/ton as of August 11 [1] - Inner Mongolia Huineng Group Erlintutu Coal Co., Ltd. has passed the inspection for resuming production, meeting the conditions for restarting operations [2] - Indonesia's Ministry of Mining reported that coal exports reached 238 million tons from January to June, with a production target of 739.7 million tons by 2025 [2] Group 2 - According to Da Yue Futures, the operating rate of coking enterprises and pig iron production remain high, sustaining strong demand for coking coal, although purchasing pace may slow down post-inventory replenishment [3] - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the overall recovery of coal mines in major production areas is slow, with supply disruptions still anticipated, while downstream acceptance of high coal prices is decreasing [3] - The coking coal auction prices in the Lüliang market have increased, with the average transaction price for high-sulfur coking coal rising by 159 CNY/ton compared to the previous auction [2]