Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

8月11日，焦煤期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨2.05%，报1244.5元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 内蒙古汇能集团尔林兔煤炭有限公司已通过复工复产检查验收，具备了复工复产条件。依据《煤矿安全 生产条例》(国务院令第774号)第四十九条规定，现予以公告。 机构观点 大越期货：焦企开工率和铁水产量维持高位，炼焦煤刚性需求保持韧性。但经前期补库后节后采购节奏 多有放缓，维持刚需补库为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏强运行。焦煤2601：1200-1250区间操作。 中原期货：主产地煤矿整体恢复偏慢，供应扰动预期仍存，但下游对高煤价接受度下降，多数煤矿执行 前期订单。焦炭六轮提涨开启，基于当前铁水高位，双焦表现仍相对坚挺，预计短期回调空间有限，高 位震荡运行。 印尼矿业部：1至6月煤炭出口量达2.38亿吨。2025年煤炭产量目标为7.397亿吨。 8月11日吕梁市场炼焦煤竞拍价格上涨。柳林高硫焦精煤A11、S1.85-2.0、G85起拍价850元/吨，成交均 价1249元/吨，较上期7月21日涨159元/吨。 ...

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-31） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦炭第四轮涨价落地，焦企利润有所修复，焦企对原料煤继续增库中，加之部分焦化企业提 涨焦炭第五轮，市场继续走强下，焦企目前开工率稳定，对于焦煤采购积极性维持，但考虑终端需求及 利润压制，继续上行空间有限，预计短期焦煤价格或偏强运行。 1、基本面：焦炭第四轮提涨快速落地，焦企盈利水平得到改善，但原料端焦煤价格仍有小幅上涨，焦 企生产成本较高，开工多维持前期状态，暂无明显提产意愿。同时，下游对焦炭需求较好，当前焦企走 货较为顺畅，厂内库存多处低位；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1570，基差-106.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6 ...

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿逐步复工复产，焦煤生产有所恢复，随着焦炭首轮提涨快速落地，焦煤市场情绪高涨， 下游采购需求增加，煤矿出货顺畅，鉴于部分煤矿生产尚未恢复正常的影响下，部分煤矿报价继续上探， 短期在补库支撑下煤价仍会延续向好趋势；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差21.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游钢厂接涨第一轮提价后，利润空间挤压，但盈利仍尚可，且目前铁水产量处于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-2） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：终端铁水继续回升，需求支撑较稳。加之钢厂盈利有所好转，有小幅补库行为，部分焦企由 于盈利不佳，有小幅限产，但焦炭出货整体正常，故当前补库需求仍在，但对原料端的采购也相对谨慎， 高价资源成交依旧一般，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：部分矿点正陆续复产，产量仍未恢复至正常水平。下游补库需求逐步释放，部分中间环节 也适当采购，产地库存去化，市场成交开始回暖，线上竞拍成交表现也明显好转，部分优质资源和竞拍 前期超跌煤种新成交小幅上涨，影响市场情绪也偏乐观；中性 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差125.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日环保安监趋严，煤矿开工产量小幅下降，但仍处于偏高水平。然下游需求依旧显露疲 态，市场观望情绪依旧存在，用煤企业采购体量较小，煤矿出货压力增加，部分矿点报价继续下调。加 之焦炭价格继续走弱背景下，炼焦煤价格支撑较弱；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差145；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格提出第四轮降价，市场情绪不断走低，加之成材消费淡 ...

5月26日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至791.0元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约报 801.5元，跌幅1.72%。 焦煤期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 从供应端来看，国内煤矿生产持续高位运行，4月原煤产量同比增长3.8%，1-4月累计产量同比增长 6.6%，山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤大省产量均有不同程度增长。进口方面，虽海运煤进口利润下 降，但蒙古煤"五一"后日通过量仍维持高位，5月17日中蒙第二条跨境铁路开工，后续进口能力还将提 升，内蒙古288口岸库存高企，成交冷清，贸易商降价出货，进一步打压价格。需求端同样表现疲软。 钢铁行业作为焦煤主要消费领域，当前处于淡旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比减少 0.87万吨，有见顶迹象，且在低利润背景下，钢厂采购谨慎，无集中补库需求。而焦化厂面临钢厂连续 压价，已历12轮提价，后续还有第13轮提价可能，市场情绪谨慎，采购推迟，导致煤焦销售不畅，库存 连续累积。综合来看，除非国内煤矿大幅减产或需求端超预期反弹，否则焦煤价格仍将承压，短期内弱 势格局难改。 广州期货：煤焦价格仍将承压 目前来看，焦煤从驱动来看，向下的 ...