H1 产量明显回复，Q2 销量环比大幅提升 山煤国际(600546) 山煤国际 2025 年中报业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 8.56-13.96 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 19,151 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 1,982/1,982 | | 流通 B 股/H 股(百万股) | 0/0 | 本报告导读： 2025H1 产量明显回复，Q2 销量环比恢复明显；公司优化成本管控，2025H1成本同 比环比均大幅下滑，我们预计公司 H2 产销量情况及业绩情况有望继续恢复。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | ...

产销恢复增长，业绩下滑主要受到煤炭售价下行影响 华阳股份(600348) 华阳股份 2025 年中报业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | 本报告导读： 2025H1 产销恢复增长，业绩下滑主要受到煤炭售价下行影响，Q2 成本环比下降， 毛利环比恢复，对冲煤价下跌影响，预计 Q3 伴随煤价回升，业绩压力将得到缓解。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 28,518 | 25,060 | 21,367 | 23,694 | 24,788 | | (+ ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The coal prices have reached a bottom in the first half of the year, with potential for a rebound in the second half as supply-demand dynamics improve, indicating resilience in coal demand in the medium term [1] - In Q1 2025, despite significant performance pressures, the coal sector remains strong with low debt-to-asset ratios (44.7%), high net profit margins (12.7%), and relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] - The current low interest rate environment enhances the investment appeal of high-dividend leading stocks in the coal sector [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - From January to May, domestic coal production increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [2] - The domestic raw coal production for the same period reached 1.99 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, with expectations for a narrowing growth rate in the second half of the year [2] - Coal imports are projected to remain low, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 8 million tons (-15%) for the entire year, primarily due to reduced imports from Indonesia [2] Group 3: Regional Insights - The transportation demand for coal from Xinjiang has seen a temporary decline due to falling coal prices, despite efforts to lower railway freight rates [3] - As of June 6, the railway transportation volume of Xinjiang coal increased by only 6.8% year-on-year, with limited price advantages in certain regions [3] - Xinjiang is accelerating investments in coal chemical and coal power projects, indicating a future increase in local coal consumption [3] Group 4: Price and Production Trends - Historical data suggests that when coal prices drop below 600 RMB/ton, production cuts begin to occur, with previous years showing significant reductions in coal output [4] - Current coal companies maintain reasonable profitability and operational quality, making spontaneous production cuts less likely, although a slight reduction may occur if prices fall below cost lines [4] Group 5: Demand Outlook - National coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with expectations for improved demand in the second half of the year [5] - The thermal power sector is under pressure due to slower electricity demand growth and competition from renewable energy, but a rebound is anticipated as the peak season approaches [5] - Non-electric demand, particularly for chemical coal, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [5]

Supply: Marginal Increment Significantly Reduced - Domestic coal production from January to May increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [3][7] - The domestic raw coal production reached 1.99 billion tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year, with an estimated total production of around 4.85 billion tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 million tons (2%) [3][9] - The decrease in imports is attributed to weak demand, high inventory levels, and diminishing price advantages of imported coal. For the first five months of 2025, coal imports totaled 19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16 million tons (8%) [3][64] Demand: Short-term Improvement Expected, Medium-term Resilience Visible - National commodity coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 billion tons (0.5%). The demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the consumption peak season approaches [3][4] - In the thermal power sector, the demand is under pressure due to slowing electricity growth and competition from renewable energy. However, the demand for thermal power is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3][4] - Non-electric demand, particularly from the chemical sector, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [3][4] Inventory: High Port Inventory Declining, De-stocking Remains Focus - Port inventories are currently at high levels but are expected to decline as demand improves in the peak consumption season. The focus will remain on de-stocking [4] Price: Thermal Coal Prices at Bottom, Coking Coal Prices Showing Stages of Rebound - The average market price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by approximately 199 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. However, there is potential for price rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [3][57] Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Value Still Exists, Stage Game Elasticity - The report suggests that despite the downward pressure on coal prices, there is still potential for a rebound in the second half of the year. The resilience of coal demand is viewed positively in the medium term [3][4] - Key investment targets include stable-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as elastic stocks like Electric Power Investment and Jinko Coal Industry [3][4]