智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，上半年煤价摸底，下半年随着供需格局改善，煤价尚存持续 反弹潜力，中期维度看好煤炭需求韧性。从经营指标看，在业绩压力较大的2025Q1，煤炭板块表现依 旧排名靠前，如较低的资产负债率(44.7%)、较高的净利率水平(12.7%)、以及相对较高的ROE。在当前 低利率的宏观环境中，业绩稳健的高股息龙头标依旧具备较高配置价值。需要关注的是，由于煤价下 行，且二季度处于传统淡季，预计2025Q2煤企有一定业绩压力。 国信证券主要观点如下： 1-5月全国商品煤消费量20.5亿吨，同比增加约0.1亿吨(+0.5%)，下半年进入消费旺季，需求改善可期。 火电方面，受用电增速放缓、新能源挤压等影响，火电承压，同比5月转正(+1.2%)，前5月累计同 比-3.1%。但下半年进入新能源发电淡季，火电弹性可期;中期看，火电需求韧性强，峰值期有望维持5 年左右。 疆煤外运对市场冲击几何? 2025年受煤炭价格持续走低的影响，煤炭出疆铁路运输需求出现阶段性下降，为助力疆煤外运，呼局多 次下调铁路运费。但疆煤外运增速仍明显放缓，截至6月6日疆煤铁路外运量同比增长仅6.8%。经测 算，当前煤价下，疆 ...

Supply: Marginal Increment Significantly Reduced - Domestic coal production from January to May increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [3][7] - The domestic raw coal production reached 1.99 billion tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year, with an estimated total production of around 4.85 billion tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 million tons (2%) [3][9] - The decrease in imports is attributed to weak demand, high inventory levels, and diminishing price advantages of imported coal. For the first five months of 2025, coal imports totaled 19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16 million tons (8%) [3][64] Demand: Short-term Improvement Expected, Medium-term Resilience Visible - National commodity coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 billion tons (0.5%). The demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the consumption peak season approaches [3][4] - In the thermal power sector, the demand is under pressure due to slowing electricity growth and competition from renewable energy. However, the demand for thermal power is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3][4] - Non-electric demand, particularly from the chemical sector, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [3][4] Inventory: High Port Inventory Declining, De-stocking Remains Focus - Port inventories are currently at high levels but are expected to decline as demand improves in the peak consumption season. The focus will remain on de-stocking [4] Price: Thermal Coal Prices at Bottom, Coking Coal Prices Showing Stages of Rebound - The average market price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by approximately 199 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. However, there is potential for price rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [3][57] Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Value Still Exists, Stage Game Elasticity - The report suggests that despite the downward pressure on coal prices, there is still potential for a rebound in the second half of the year. The resilience of coal demand is viewed positively in the medium term [3][4] - Key investment targets include stable-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as elastic stocks like Electric Power Investment and Jinko Coal Industry [3][4]