对话交运：26 年煤炭运输量价展望 20251119 摘要 煤价下跌初期，铁路公司通过下调运费，与煤矿企业重新分配利益，扩 大产地辐射范围，体现了铁路运费作为利润调节工具的灵活性。 随着煤价在七八月份反弹，铁路运费同步上调，部分地区恢复至正常水 平，验证了运输费用随市场价格波动的行业模型，并预测 2026 年运费 将继续随市场波动调整。 当前疆煤外运成本约为 500 元/吨，低时可达 400 元/吨，结合新疆坑口 成本 100-200 元/吨，表明疆煤外运仍具备利润空间，过去两年数据证 实了疆煤放量的趋势。 兰新铁路扩能潜力有限，未来疆煤外运的核心在于北翼临河线等通道的 扩能改造，预计北翼临河线改造后可达 1 亿至 2 亿吨的运输容量。 闹柳公路扩能改造完成后，通道能力将提升 1.5 倍，增加 2000 万吨的 运输能力，显著提高疆煤外运能力。 在乌局外运优惠部分取消的情况下，疆煤外运至港口仍具经济性，铁路 运费淡季下调的策略预计明年仍将延续，但底部位置或高于今年。 铁路检修期间，如大秦铁路春秋季检修，日均运量将显著减少，影响下 游港口的发运和补库，但其他线路会错开时间，整体供给影响不集中。 Q&A 2026 ...

Core Insights - Guanghui Logistics has signed transportation agreements for 2026 with multiple clients, totaling over 7 million tons of cargo [1] - The company reported a transportation volume of 21.08 million tons from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.95% and accounting for approximately 30% of Xinjiang's total coal transportation [1] - The new contracts mark Guanghui Logistics' first annual agreements for the transportation of semi-coke and blown coal with external clients, with a total contract value of around 700 million yuan [1] Company Performance - Guanghui Logistics' transportation volume for the first nine months of 2025 reached 21.08 million tons, a significant increase of 38.95% compared to the previous year [1] - The company holds a 30% share of the total coal transportation volume in Xinjiang, indicating a strong market presence [1] Market Expansion - The new agreements are expected to enhance Guanghui Logistics' market share and business growth, leveraging the accelerated release of high-quality coal production in Xinjiang [1] - The company aims to strengthen its brand influence as a key player in the "Xinjiang coal transportation" sector through these new contracts [1]

该行指，进口端印尼煤炭生产存在巨大弹性：印尼煤矿生产也均为露天煤矿，由于其热值较低，当市场 低迷的时候，低热值煤炭会被市场优先淘汰摒弃，因此成为中国煤炭供给的重要补充部分，2025年中国 预计煤炭进口量下降0.5-0.6亿吨，而印尼总出口量大约下降同等规模。 东吴证券发布研报称，受益于煤价在2025年二季度见底，煤炭上市公司业绩从三季度开始触底，预计未 来煤价相对稳定造就龙头公司持续盈利稳定。预期2026年上半年煤价震荡运行，且关注"能源安全"主题 投资机会，因此该行建议关注受益于"疆煤外运"逻辑产量有增长，且动力煤价格上涨带来业绩弹性的广 汇能源（600256）(600256.SH);其次建议关注昊华能源（601101）(600378.SH)，以及兖矿能源 （600188）(600188.SH)和陕西煤业（601225）(601225.SH)。 报告中称，2023年中以来，随着经济增速放缓，煤炭供需进入弱均衡状态，正常状态煤价在670-870元/ 吨之间区间震荡，煤价合理常态预期770元/吨左右水平。国内新疆煤炭成为供给补充弹性地区：新疆地 区的大规模露天煤矿产能，成为重要弹性供给部分。新疆准东地区由于运距 ...

Core Insights - Guanghui Logistics has signed transportation agreements with multiple external clients for the year 2026, with a total contract volume exceeding 7 million tons [1][2] - The company has seen a significant increase in its transportation capacity due to the gradual implementation of key railway projects in Xinjiang [1] - Guanghui Logistics reported a year-on-year increase of 38.95% in transportation volume for the first nine months of 2025, accounting for approximately 30% of Xinjiang's total coal transportation [1] Group 1 - The total contract volume for the newly signed agreements is over 7 million tons, with a total contract value of approximately 700 million yuan [1] - The new orders represent the company's first annual contracts for the transportation of semi-coke and blown coal with external clients [1] - The company aims to further expand its market share and achieve business growth through the utilization of the newly operational railways [1] Group 2 - The recent orders have broadened the company's business scope and strengthened its market position in Xinjiang's coal transportation sector [2] - The agreements enhance the brand influence of the company as a key player in the Xinjiang coal transportation corridor [2]

新华财经乌鲁木齐11月11日电（记者郝玉）中国铁路乌鲁木齐局集团有限公司11日举办2025—2026年度 战略合作企业暨物流总包签约会，与33家企业签订年度战略合作协议，协议运量达2.04亿吨，连续两年 突破2亿吨。 今年以来，新疆铁路部门累计发送旅客4833.81万人次、同比增幅7.2%；发送货物2.14亿吨、同比增幅 6.6%；新疆铁路双口岸通行中欧（中亚）班列1.52万列、同比增幅8.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 今年以来，新疆铁路紧盯粮食、棉花等物资运输需求，优先安排、应运尽运，全力保障重点物资运输； 挖潜提效，统筹用好兰新、格库、临哈三条出疆通道，实施格库铁路5200吨、临哈铁路5800吨增吨运 输，不断提高出疆煤炭运输能力，确保全年疆煤外运1亿吨、同比增长10%。今年，新疆铁路货物发送 量比去年提前了19天突破2亿吨。 "我们坚持对外开拓市场、对内协调产能运能，围绕'疆煤外运1亿吨'目标，推进疆煤入豫、入渝、入 滇，将煤炭运输到站范围扩大至四川、云南、湖南等10余个省份、68条流向，目前已累计发运出疆煤炭 超8100万吨、同比增长6.9%。"中国铁路乌鲁木齐局集团有限公司95306货运物流服务中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guanghui Logistics is actively repurchasing shares to enhance company value and improve shareholder returns, with a total repurchase budget of between RMB 200 million and RMB 400 million, and a maximum repurchase price of RMB 11.00 per share [2][3]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to use its own funds to repurchase shares, with the aim of reducing registered capital by canceling all repurchased shares [2]. - The initial repurchase price was set at a maximum of RMB 7.84 per share, which was later adjusted to RMB 11.00 per share [3]. - The repurchase period has been extended to last until April 30, 2026 [3]. Group 2: Progress of Share Repurchase - As of October 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 14,770,400 shares, accounting for 1.24% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 84.99 million [4]. Group 3: Third Quarter Performance Meeting - The company held a performance meeting on November 4, 2025, to discuss its third-quarter results, financial status, and development strategies with investors [8]. - Key topics included the coal market outlook and the company's operational strategies in response to market conditions [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - The company is optimistic about the long-term trend of coal transportation from Xinjiang, supported by robust coal reserves and favorable policies [9]. - The company aims to enhance its coal transportation capacity and efficiency while expanding its logistics network to ensure stable growth in energy logistics [14]. Group 5: Company Development and Future Plans - The company has successfully removed risk warnings from its stock, enhancing its market image and increasing trading flexibility [10][11]. - Future plans include focusing on energy logistics, optimizing capital structure, and improving operational efficiency to drive sustainable growth [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Guanghui Logistics is focusing on energy logistics as its main business, leveraging its strategic location in Xinjiang to enhance coal transportation and logistics capabilities [1][2][4] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy centered around "one channel, four bases," which includes the construction and operation of the Hongnao Railway as a key part of the northern wing corridor [1] - Guanghui Logistics has reported a cumulative transportation volume of 21.08 million tons from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.95% [1] - The company is actively responding to changes in coal market supply and demand by adopting a pricing strategy that combines volume and price, while also enhancing transportation efficiency and expanding its logistics network [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The company has successfully launched the Liugou base, with three other logistics base projects under construction, all of which are prioritized projects in their respective locations [2] - The completion of these logistics bases will create a comprehensive energy logistics system by connecting with upstream railways, thereby supporting the release of advanced coal mining capacity in Xinjiang [2][3] Group 3: Operational Improvements - Guanghui Logistics aims to enhance its operational performance by focusing on three core areas: securing long-term coal transportation contracts, expanding self-owned vehicles and container business, and accelerating the construction of energy logistics bases [3] - The company plans to improve coal dispatch efficiency and container return efficiency through optimized transportation organization [3] - The company has removed risk warnings as of October 29, 2025, changing its stock name from "ST Guangwu" to "Guanghui Logistics," which enhances its market image and trading flexibility [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The successful removal of risk warnings marks a significant step for the company, indicating improvements in compliance governance, internal control, and operational capabilities [4] - The company is committed to focusing on its main business and advancing its energy logistics strategy to enhance core competitiveness and sustainable profitability [4]

Core Insights - Guanghui Logistics has achieved a new record in freight volume after the electrification upgrade of the Hongnao Railway, with a monthly shipment of 2.7746 million tons in October, including 122,800 tons of newly initiated external coal shipments, marking a new growth point for the company [1][2] - The company attributes this achievement to the completion of the electrification upgrade in September 2024, which has significantly enhanced railway capacity and efficiency, increasing the maximum train speed to 80 km/h and reducing total travel time by nearly 2 hours [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the removal of other risk warnings for the company's stock, which will be suspended for one day on October 28, 2025, and will resume trading on October 29, 2025, with the stock name changing from "ST Guangwu" to "Guanghui Logistics" [1] Business Focus - Following the removal of risk warnings, Guanghui Logistics is expected to focus more on its core business development [2] - The company's main business segments include energy logistics, real estate, and logistics collaboration, with energy logistics being the core business primarily serving the Xinjiang coal transportation strategy [2] - The real estate projects have completed all construction and are now in the final sales phase, with related businesses gradually exiting [2]

Core Insights - Guanghui Logistics has achieved a new record in freight volume after the electrification upgrade of the Hongnao Railway, with a monthly shipment volume exceeding 2.7746 million tons in October, including 122,800 tons of newly initiated external coal shipments, marking a new growth point for the company [1][2] - The company attributes this achievement to the completion of the electrification upgrade in September 2024, which has significantly enhanced railway capacity and efficiency, increasing the maximum train speed to 80 km/h and reducing total travel time by nearly 2 hours [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved the removal of other risk warnings for Guanghui Logistics, with the stock set to be suspended for one day on October 28, 2025, and will resume trading on October 29, 2025, with the stock name changing from "ST Guangwu" to "Guanghui Logistics" [1] Business Focus - Following the removal of risk warnings, Guanghui Logistics is expected to focus more on its core business development [2] - The company's main business segments include energy logistics, real estate, and logistics collaboration, with energy logistics being the core business primarily serving the Xinjiang coal transportation strategy [2] - The real estate projects have completed all construction and are now in the final sales phase, with related businesses gradually exiting [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guanghui Energy is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Guanghui Energy's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has been impacted by declining prices of coal, coal chemical products, and natural gas, along with increased soil conservation compensation fees [7] - The company is expected to see improved profitability in Q4 due to seasonal demand [7] - Future growth is anticipated from the Marang coal mine and oil and gas projects, which are expected to provide new momentum for long-term growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guanghui Energy reported revenue of 22.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.01 billion, down 49.47% [2][3] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.78 billion, a decline of 25.81%, and a net profit of 159 million, down 71.01% [3] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 4.31 billion, an increase of 6.10% year-on-year [2] Natural Gas Segment Summary - Natural gas production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 465.69 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4.00% year-on-year, while Q3 production was 121.09 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.03% [5] - Natural gas sales for the first three quarters were 2.18 billion cubic meters, down 32.06%, with Q3 sales at 656.55 million cubic meters, down 36.17% [5] Coal Chemical Segment Summary - Methanol production for the first three quarters was 753,500 tons, a decrease of 1.46%, with Q3 production at 189,700 tons, an increase of 1.80% [6] - Coal-based oil production for the first three quarters was 434,700 tons, an increase of 8.83%, with Q3 production at 118,400 tons, an increase of 11.81% [6] - Ethylene glycol production for the first three quarters was 88,900 tons, an increase of 16.84%, with Q3 production at 48,400 tons, an increase of 65.71% [6] Future Outlook - The Marang coal mine is expected to further increase production, with various approvals in place for its operations [8] - The Zaisang oil and gas project has shown positive progress, with significant oil and gas reserves identified, which could become a major profit growth point for the company [8] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.08 billion, 2.94 billion, and 3.24 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.46, and 0.51 [8]