摘要 动力煤价格回调后，陕西到岸含税价约为 780 元/吨，山西和内蒙古约 为 820 元/吨，与港口价格倒挂幅度收窄。澳洲煤价小幅上涨，印尼煤 价微跌，到岸含税价约 730-740 元/吨，进口优势仍在但大幅增加概率 不大。 北方九港煤炭库存略有上涨，但低于过去两年同期水平，冬季价格上涨 阻力缓解。沿海电厂累库不及预期，上半年制约煤价的库存因素消除。 焦煤市场稳中向好，期货价格大幅上涨。乌海地区停产和蒙煤进口减少 导致供应紧张，近期虽有缓解但整体偏紧状态预计持续。 煤炭板块股票因部分公司三季报低于预期及市场风格变化而回调，但基 本面向上趋势未变。头部公司业绩超预期或符合预期，部分公司因动力 煤均价涨幅有限及销售策略调整导致利润增长受限。 三季度动力煤均价涨幅有限，焦煤长协价格甚至下降，影响了相关企业 利润。动力煤公司业绩环比改善不明显，但行业吨煤利润逐月改善，三 季度为年内盈利最佳阶段。 前三季度煤炭行业资本开支同比增长 11%，债务规模创新高，但资产负 债率维持稳定。多数企业无进一步去杠杆意愿。 煤炭行业三季报总结 20251102 四季度投资策略应关注弹性标的，看好动力煤和焦炭价格超预期上涨的 可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to see a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a potential increase in coal prices and improved profitability for coal companies as supply constraints become evident [2][11][18]. Group 1: PE and PB Analysis - The coal sector has experienced a downward trend in both PE and PB after a period of rapid growth, with significant differentiation observed during two periods: 2014-2017 and mid-2024 to present [2][11]. - The current PE is at approximately the 65th percentile since 2005, while the PB is at about the 27th percentile, indicating a cyclical low for the sector [17][18]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coal production in July and August 2025 saw a year-on-year decrease due to rainfall and regulatory checks, with an expected slight decline in total production for the year [3][37]. - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be around 4.71 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][37]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Anticipated cold winter conditions are expected to boost demand in the winter months, with electricity consumption projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025 [4]. - Chemical coal demand remains robust, with significant year-on-year increases in production for coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Price Trends - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [5]. - The expectation of supply contraction is likely to elevate the price floor for coal, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for rebound and growth, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [5].

Supply: Marginal Increment Significantly Reduced - Domestic coal production from January to May increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [3][7] - The domestic raw coal production reached 1.99 billion tons from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the growth rate is expected to narrow in the second half of the year, with an estimated total production of around 4.85 billion tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9 million tons (2%) [3][9] - The decrease in imports is attributed to weak demand, high inventory levels, and diminishing price advantages of imported coal. For the first five months of 2025, coal imports totaled 19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 16 million tons (8%) [3][64] Demand: Short-term Improvement Expected, Medium-term Resilience Visible - National commodity coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 billion tons (0.5%). The demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year as the consumption peak season approaches [3][4] - In the thermal power sector, the demand is under pressure due to slowing electricity growth and competition from renewable energy. However, the demand for thermal power is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [3][4] - Non-electric demand, particularly from the chemical sector, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [3][4] Inventory: High Port Inventory Declining, De-stocking Remains Focus - Port inventories are currently at high levels but are expected to decline as demand improves in the peak consumption season. The focus will remain on de-stocking [4] Price: Thermal Coal Prices at Bottom, Coking Coal Prices Showing Stages of Rebound - The average market price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by approximately 199 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. However, there is potential for price rebound as supply-demand dynamics improve [3][57] Investment Recommendations: High Dividend Value Still Exists, Stage Game Elasticity - The report suggests that despite the downward pressure on coal prices, there is still potential for a rebound in the second half of the year. The resilience of coal demand is viewed positively in the medium term [3][4] - Key investment targets include stable-performing coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, as well as elastic stocks like Electric Power Investment and Jinko Coal Industry [3][4]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]