Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has been in a downward trend since reaching a peak in October 2021, with a significant drop from 1,615 CNY/ton to approximately 618 CNY/ton by June 5, 2025, marking a total decline of 997 CNY/ton [3][10] - Historical analysis indicates that coal price recoveries typically require policy intervention, as seen in previous downturns in 2008, 2015, and 2020 [2][9] - The current market is characterized by a buyer-dominated environment, with coal prices influenced by demand strength during peak summer periods and potential price stabilization policies [10][18] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3,247.89 points, down 0.32%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.20 percentage points [2][75] - The report highlights the need for policy support to reverse negative market sentiment and restore confidence in coal prices [3][9] Coal Price Trends - As of June 6, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the North Port was 618 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton week-on-week [10][36] - The report notes that low-calorie coal prices are showing strength due to structural shortages, while high-calorie coal prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][18] Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of coal production and the impact of potential policy measures on market dynamics [14][54] - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, all rated as "Buy" [13] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply remains stable, with production returning to normal levels after temporary reductions due to environmental checks [17][18] - The demand from downstream sectors is primarily driven by immediate needs, with limited willingness to accept higher prices [10][18] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with expectations for high-quality development amid ongoing structural reforms [38][54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a slight increase of 0.45% recently, but it underperformed compared to the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.94 percentage points [5] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices are under pressure, with domestic prices at 700 RMB/ton, down 1.41% week-on-week, and international prices showing declines as well [6] - Supply of thermal coal is tightening due to safety inspections and some mines temporarily halting production, while demand is expected to decline as heating season ends [6] - Coking coal supply remains stable, with domestic prices holding steady at 1200 RMB/ton, while downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [7] - The report suggests that despite expected declines in thermal coal demand, seasonal recovery in non-electric sectors (like steel and chemicals) may offset this, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.18 times, within the 48.14% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.18 times, within the 26.22% percentile [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices are weak, with a current market price of 700 RMB/ton, and international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal also declining [6] - The supply of thermal coal is slightly contracting due to safety measures and inspections, while demand is expected to decrease as the heating season concludes [6] - Coking coal prices are stable domestically, with a price of 1200 RMB/ton, and there is a gradual recovery in downstream demand as construction activities resume [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, as well as coking coal companies with low valuations and improving operational conditions, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8]