迎峰度夏

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华泰证券:7月火电发电量仍将维持正增长动能
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 00:06
华泰证券研报表示,基于煤耗、来水、样本企业公告等高频指标,定量估算2025年7月全国发电量同增 +3.2%至9,249亿度(2024年同期基数调整后,考虑到统计局每年对历史发电量回溯上调,若不考虑回溯 调整则同比增速为4.7%),其中我们预计火电、水电、风光核电发电量分别同比+1.1%、-1.8%、 +27.3%至5,811亿度、1,634亿度、1,804亿度。7月迎峰度夏正当时,我国电力生产与电力需求具备较高 趋同性,火电和水电作为基荷电源起到主要支撑作用,其中水电出力较6月明显好转,我们认为7月水电 发电量同比降幅或将缩小;虽然水电出力修复或对火电形成一定挤出效应,但在夏季历史级高温、最高 负荷持续突破下用电需求亦有所提振,我们认为7月火电发电量仍将维持正增长动能。 ...
国网邯郸市永年区供电公司:开展养殖户专项用电检查
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-12 03:52
"闫厂长,这台饲料粉碎机的电线有老化现象,得尽快更换,不然高温天气下再加上负荷一大就容易引 发用电事故。"8月11日,永年区供电公司正西供电所正在为正西乡福泰达养牛场提供上门供电服务。 当前,正值电网迎峰度夏关键时刻,永年公司组织多支服务队深入辖区各养牛专业户开展迎峰度夏专项 供电服务。工作人员对区域内养殖场进行走访,实地了解用电需求,排查安全隐患,助力养殖业稳定发 展。该公司工作人员重点检查了养殖场的配电箱,查看开关状态、电能表计量及线路连接情况,对饲料 机、粉碎机、排气扇等关键用电设备进行逐一检测。工作人员对存在老化、接头松动等隐患,现场协助 养殖户进行了更换和加固,及时排除了安全风险。同时,工作人员向各养殖户发放了安全用电宣传资 料,并详细讲解安全用电、节约用电及电力设施保护知识,提醒养殖户注意安全用电。 ????下一步,永年区供电公司将定期回访养殖户,及时帮助客户解决用电难题,并持续加强与养殖户的 沟通,征求意见建议,为地方养殖产业的发展提供坚实的供电保障。(王亚康 曹艳) ...
煤炭行业周报:北港库存加速去化,焦炭第三轮提涨落地-20250804
Datong Securities· 2025-08-04 12:29
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the inventory at Beigang is rapidly decreasing, and the price of coke has seen a third round of increases, leading to a continued rise in coking coal prices [4][10] - The coal supply is constrained due to heavy rains and typhoons, which, combined with the high temperatures during peak summer demand, is expected to push coal prices higher [4][11] - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed the market index, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a pullback after surpassing 3600 points [5][38] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a downward trend, with the coal sector significantly underperforming the index, as indicated by a weekly decline of 4.67% in the coal sector [5][10] - The average daily trading volume remained around 1.8 trillion yuan, with fluctuations in financing purchases [5][10] Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal continues to rise, driven by supply constraints from adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks on coal production [10][11] - The average daily consumption of coal by southern power plants has increased, reflecting a rise in demand due to high temperatures [10][12] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has also increased, supported by a recovery in steel mill profitability and ongoing inventory replenishment despite some marginal demand weakening [23][24] - The report notes that the third round of price increases for coke has been implemented, further stimulating demand for coking coal [23][24] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim has decreased, while shipping rates have risen across various routes, indicating a tightening supply chain [31][32] Industry News - A cooperation agreement has been established between Shizuishan and Hami for coal resource supply, indicating a strategic move towards regional energy collaboration [34] - The International Energy Agency projects a slight increase in global coal demand in 2025, driven by consumption growth in emerging economies [34]
煤炭行业周报:供应受限,看涨旺季动力煤价,铁水保持高位,焦煤价预计持续回升-20250803
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-03 13:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a bullish sentiment for thermal coal prices during the peak summer season, while also projecting a rebound in coking coal prices due to tightening supply and strong demand [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal coal prices have increased, with specific prices reported for different grades at Qinhuangdao port, showing a week-on-week rise of 12, 13, and 10 CNY per ton for Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades respectively [1]. - Supply constraints are noted due to reduced daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports and production limitations in open-pit mines caused by rainfall in northern regions [1]. - The report emphasizes that during the "peak summer" period, thermal coal prices are expected to continue rising, while coking coal prices are also projected to rebound due to high steel mill profits and stable iron output [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal production in key provinces to ensure compliance with production capacities [7]. - The Daqin Railway is reported to be transporting an average of 1.05 million tons of coal daily to meet summer electricity demand [7]. Thermal and Coking Coal Prices - Thermal coal prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases reported for various grades across different regions [8]. - Coking coal prices have also increased, with notable price rises in Shanxi and stable prices in other regions [11]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.23 USD per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase [14]. Bohai Rim Port Inventory - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while the outflow has increased, leading to a significant drop in coal inventory [18]. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have increased, with an average of 35.51 CNY per ton reported [25]. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [29].
暑运过半,全国铁路累计发送旅客4.41亿人次
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-08-02 06:54
Group 1 - The railway summer transportation period started on July 1 and has seen a total of 441 million passengers transported by July 31, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% with an average daily passenger volume of 14.21 million [1] - The railway passenger capacity has effectively increased, with an average of 11,416 passenger trains scheduled daily, marking a 9.3% year-on-year growth [1] - A total of 266 tourist trains have been organized during the summer transportation period, catering to various travel themes such as family trips, educational tours, and wellness travel [1] Group 2 - In terms of cross-border travel, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway has transported 2.794 million cross-border passengers, while the China-Laos railway has sent 18,000 cross-border passengers [1] - The railway sector is focusing on ensuring safety during the flood season, particularly during the critical period of "July and August," by enhancing inspections and optimizing train operation plans to mitigate risks [2] - The railway has implemented measures such as service information updates and ticketing support to guide passengers for safe and orderly travel during adverse weather conditions [2]
国家发改委:“迎峰度夏”期间能够保障全国能源电力安全持续稳定供应
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 05:48
"今年以来,全国最高用电负荷已经连续四次创历史新高,最高达到15.08亿千瓦,较去年极值提高5700 万千瓦,相当于一个福建省的用电负荷。"蒋毅表示,面对迅速攀升的电力需求,国家发展改革委已会 同各地方和重点企业提前布局,采取一系列有力措施,扛牢能源电力保供责任。 蒋毅从三方面介绍了当前的措施:一方面是动态精准调度。精准分析研判供需走势,坚持底线思维、极 限思维,统筹考虑保供应、促消纳和机组安全运行,发挥煤电兜底作用,加强抽水蓄能和新型储能调 用,推动"水火风光储"等各类电源形成合力。另一方面是跨区协同互济。全国跨区输送电力最高达到 1.48亿千瓦,再创历史新高。组织电网企业跨经营区互济,高峰期通过闽粤直流互济、江城直流反送实 现两网间320万千瓦支援电力。此外,在高效应对灾害方面,密切跟踪灾害天气趋势,提前部署抢修人 员和力量,及时抢修复电,有力应对台风"丹娜丝"、贵州黔东南特大洪涝灾害、湖北恩施特大暴雨、北 方地区持续强降雨等自然灾害。 "在各方面共同努力下,目前全国电力供应平稳有序,各地用电需求得到较好保障。"蒋毅说。 资讯编辑:祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督:乐卫扬 021-26093827 ...
国家发展改革委:“迎峰度夏”期间能够保障全国能源电力安全持续稳定供应
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 05:18
"今年以来,全国最高用电负荷已经连续四次创历史新高,最高达到15.08亿千瓦,较去年极值提高5700 万千瓦,相当于一个福建省的用电负荷。"蒋毅表示,面对迅速攀升的电力需求,国家发展改革委已会 同各地方和重点企业提前布局,采取一系列有力措施,扛牢能源电力保供责任。 蒋毅从三方面介绍了当前的措施:一方面是动态精准调度。精准分析研判供需走势,坚持底线思维、极 限思维,统筹考虑保供应、促消纳和机组安全运行,发挥煤电兜底作用,加强抽水蓄能和新型储能调 用,推动"水火风光储"等各类电源形成合力。另一方面是跨区协同互济。全国跨区输送电力最高达到 1.48亿千瓦,再创历史新高。组织电网企业跨经营区互济,高峰期通过闽粤直流互济、江城直流反送实 现两网间320万千瓦支援电力。此外,在高效应对灾害方面,密切跟踪灾害天气趋势,提前部署抢修人 员和力量,及时抢修复电,有力应对台风"丹娜丝"、贵州黔东南特大洪涝灾害、湖北恩施特大暴雨、北 方地区持续强降雨等自然灾害。 新华财经北京8月1日电 在8月1日举行的国家发展改革委新闻发布会上,针对当前多地持续高温,电力 负荷屡创新高的局面,国家发展改革委政研室主任蒋毅表示,下一步将充分发挥煤电 ...
宝城期货动力煤早报-20250731
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:05
Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that in the peak summer season, with the seasonal increase in domestic thermal coal demand and the fermentation of positive news such as "anti - involution", the market sentiment is optimistic, driving coal prices up. It is expected that coal prices will remain strong in August [5] Group 3 Supply - As of July 18, the average daily output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [5] - According to SteelHome data, in the first two weeks of July, the arrival volume of seaborne coal in China was 10.864 million tons, with an average daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [5] Demand - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provincial power plants was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provincial power plants was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [5] Inventory - According to iFind data, as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [5]
宝城期货动力煤早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market atmosphere is continuously optimistic due to the resonance of favorable factors such as the peak season and the "anti - involution" news. The coal price is expected to maintain strong operation in August [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Situation - The domestic thermal coal demand has a seasonal rebound as it enters the critical period of peak - summer coal consumption. Some positive news such as "anti - involution" has fermented, spreading an optimistic market atmosphere and driving up coal prices [4]. Supply Side - As of the period ending on July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [4]. - Steel Union data shows that in the first two weeks of July, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, equivalent to a daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. Demand Side - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. Inventory Side - iFind data shows that as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4].
中辉期货原油日报-20250729
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress; some chemical products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, and policies, showing different trends of rise and fall [1][2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress [1]. - **Basic logic**: The oil market is currently in a situation of weak expectations and strong reality, with certain support below. However, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day; the EU introduced a new round of sanctions against Russia, reducing the upper limit of Russian crude oil sanctions to about $50 per barrel. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% from the previous month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February; China's crude oil imports in June were 49.888 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.8 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve SPR decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, due to the impact of new energy and the expansion cycle of OPEC+, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short term, the daily line rebounds, but the upside pressure is strong. The strategy is to lightly lay out short positions and buy call options to protect the positions. SC focuses on the range of [510 - 525] [5]. LPG - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG are okay, leading to a rebound in LPG [1]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is that the cost-side oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG improve marginally. Currently, the downstream chemical demand is rising, and the basis is at a high level, so the short-term upward momentum of LPG increases. As of July 28, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous period. In terms of cost and profit, as of July 28, the profit of PDH devices remained unchanged from the previous period, while the profit of alkylation devices decreased by 12.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. On the supply side, as of the week of July 25, the total LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.04 million tons compared with the previous week, and the civil LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.18 million tons. On the demand side, as of the week of July 25, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased by 1.35pct, 1.38pct, and 1.99pct respectively compared with the previous period. On the inventory side, as of the week of July 25, the refinery inventory increased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, and the port inventory decreased by 16.59 million tons [6][7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, after the geopolitical risks are released, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. Technically and in the short term, the daily line stabilizes and rebounds. It is recommended to sell put options. PG focuses on the range of [3950 - 4050] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure [1]. - **Basic logic**: The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The coal-based proportion of plastics is 20%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 14%. Most of the production capacity has been shut down for a long time or replaced. Attention should be paid to policy changes. The marginal improvement of agricultural film operations should be noted, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of raw material replenishment. The restart of devices increases, and the output is expected to increase this week. In the medium and long term, high production limits the rebound space [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. L focuses on the range of [7300 - 7450] [10][11]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The number of warehouse receipts increases, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases. The coal-based proportion of PP is 19%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 8%. Most of them have been shut down for a long time or replaced. The demand fails to keep up, and the supply is under continuous pressure. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative exports increased by 21% year-on-year, and the export profit margin is relatively high in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future. In the medium and long term, the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [13][14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. PP focuses on the range of [7050 - 7250] [14][15]. PVC - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously. The proportion of old PVC production capacity is 11%. Attention should be paid to the policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks. The 900,000 - ton devices of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development have started trial - runs one after another. The weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of warehouse receipt registration [18][19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. V focuses on the range of [5100 - 5300] [19][20]. PX - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity". Attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [1]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, there are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. Some domestic devices are under maintenance or have reduced loads, while others have increased loads. In August, some devices are planned to increase loads or restart. Overseas device operating rates are temporarily stable. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is positive. The gasoline cracking spread and the comparison between aromatics reforming and oil blending show that the cost of aromatics reforming is more cost - effective. The weekly output of PX has decreased slightly, and the international PX device operating rate has declined. The import volume in June is at a relatively low level in the past five years. On the demand side, there are some changes in PTA device maintenance and new device production. The PTA spot and futures processing fees have increased. The weekly operating rate and output of PTA remain stable and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. In general, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, the PX inventory is decreasing but still at a high level, the PXN is not low, the basis is strong, and there are still positive factors under the policy [21][22]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. PX focuses on the range of [6910 - 7030] [22][23]. PTA/PR - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. Recently, there are relatively few changes in device operations. Later, new PTA devices will be put into production, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. The demand side is seasonally weak. Stimulated by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The tight - balance expectation of TA fundamentals is loosening. In the short term, affected by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, there are positive opportunities on the supply side, but the TA processing fee is neutral. Be cautious about going long at low levels [1]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side device changes are relatively small recently, but new PTA devices will be put into production later, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand side is seasonally weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The PTA fundamentals are expected to change from a tight balance to a looser situation. In the short term, there are positive factors on the supply side due to the policy, but the TA processing fee is neutral [24][25]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on dips. TA focuses on the range of [4800 - 4880] [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still lower than the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders continue to decline. In July, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the low inventory also supports the futures price. Recently, there is still positive sentiment under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", and the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still at a low level compared with the same period. Some domestic devices have restarted, while others are under maintenance or have reduced loads. Overseas, some devices have restarted, and some have maintenance plans. The weekly maintenance loss of MEG is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the weekly operating rate has increased, and the weekly output has increased slightly. The demand side is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The polyester product inventory has decreased, but the terminal weaving is still weak. The social and port inventories of MEG are at a low level compared with the same period [26][27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG focuses on the range of [4420 - 4580] [27][28]. Glass - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The policy expectation cools down, and the futures price fluctuates greatly [2]. - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, the market has been fermenting around the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, which has reignited market sentiment, and related varieties have continued to be strong, and the price of glass has risen significantly. At the same time, the strength of coal - related varieties has led to the expectation of cost increase. The fundamentals of glass have improved, the corporate profitability has improved, the output has increased slightly, especially the corporate inventory has continued to decline to a five - month low, and the comprehensive demand for glass in the off - season has remained resilient, significantly boosting market confidence. In the short term, the futures price is boosted by the macro - policy, and the continuous inventory reduction enhances market confidence. As long as the policy expectation logic is not falsified, the price center will continue to move up. In general, the futures price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate and production capacity sectors, the futures price may continue to rise. If the demand remains weak, supply contraction is needed to have a strong upward space. In late July, it is a period of intensive macro - policies, the macro - sentiment repair is difficult to be falsified, but the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price fluctuates widely [30][31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1170 - 1230] [31]. Soda Ash - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The exchange has issued a risk warning, and the price fluctuates widely [2]. - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the trading atmosphere in the glass and coal markets has become stronger, which has boosted the industrial sentiment and driven up the futures price of soda ash. The inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high, but the market reaction has been calm, and the domestic spot market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. Recently, in the soda ash market, some devices are under maintenance while others are restarting. The overall supply has slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the soda ash output has increased. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to accumulate, reaching a new historical high, and the market supply surplus pressure is heavy. The downstream support is general, with only terminal rigid - demand consumption. The short - term demand in the glass market is mediocre, some production lines in the photovoltaic glass industry have been cold - repaired, and the demand in the light - soda industry remains at a low level, maintaining a just - in - time procurement model, which has little impact on boosting the demand for soda ash. Recently, the soda ash futures price has been mainly affected by commodity sentiment fluctuations, and the fundamentals are difficult to provide sufficient driving force. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and technical operations [33][34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased month - on - month. Follow the sentiment of the coal and glass futures markets. The exchange has issued a risk warning, the price fluctuates greatly, and the price falls back under the pressure of the annual line. There is a short - term callback risk. SA focuses on the range of [1280 - 1350] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The upstream and downstream are linked, and the price corrects from a high level [2]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, the current average capacity utilization rate is 84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. Some previously reduced - production or shut - down devices in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China have gradually increased their loads, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to varying degrees. In Central China, the low price of liquid chlorine has led to losses for alkali plants, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Overall, the operation is at a high level, and with the expected commissioning of new production capacity, the supply tends to be saturated. In terms of demand, the production of the main downstream product, alumina, has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in Zhejiang has been continuously low, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for rigid demand. In May, the export scale shrank, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. In terms of cost and profit, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the subsidy for liquid chlorine has decreased, and the overall profit of the chlor - alkali industry has shown an upward trend. Currently, the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. In general, the weekly supply - demand fundamentals have weakened, the device maintenance has returned, the macro - policy expectation has cooled down, the alumina futures price has corrected, the subsidy for liquid