煤炭供需格局改善

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煤炭行业周报(8月第4周):社会库存继续下降,期货大涨提振信心-20250823
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-23 13:46
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The social inventory of coal continues to decline, and the significant rise in futures prices boosts market confidence [6] - The coal sector has shown a mixed performance, with the CITIC coal industry index rising by 1.23%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 4.18% [2] - The coal supply-demand balance is improving, with a slight decrease in coal prices during the off-season, while coking coal production may see a marginal improvement due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the average daily coal sales of monitored enterprises were 7.08 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2] - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 26.71 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 671 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1,141.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6.7% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6] - The overall coal supply-demand structure is expected to improve, with a gradual balance in supply and demand in the second half of the year [6]
煤炭行业周报(8月第3周):煤矿库存同比首次下降,基本面持续好转-20250817
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 03:12
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal inventory has decreased year-on-year for the first time, indicating a continuous improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.77% as of August 15, 2025, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.37% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises was 26.18 million tons as of August 14, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [2] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market is improving, with significant price increases for thermal coal and potential marginal improvements in the coking coal sector due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 15, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 670 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily sales volume of thermal coal increased by 0.6% week-on-week [2] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,630 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] - The inventory of coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 5.4% week-on-week [4] Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of methanol in East China was 2,354.55 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.86 CNY/ton [5] - The price of urea in Henan was 1,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 CNY/ton [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6] - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal; and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [6]