方正证券指出，当前煤炭行业的供给侧收紧成为投资主题，四季度迎峰度冬需求下，煤炭供大于求的局 面有望扭转，煤价也有望继续提升，伴随着供给收缩、需求起量，煤炭供需格局或有所好转，未来也可 展望对于进口煤的限制。该行认为长协占比较高的神华、中煤业绩稳定性较强，如果煤价继续反弹，低 估值弹性标的兖矿能源（港股）也有望迎来估值修复。 煤炭企业相关港股： 中国神华(01088)、中煤能源(01898)、兖矿能源(01171)、兖煤澳大利亚(03668)、力量发展(01277)、易大 宗(01733)、中国秦发（00866）等。 智通财经APP获悉，截至11月10日，"CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价"5500K、5000K、4500K三个规格 品分别收于817、725、633元/吨，日环比上涨8、8、6元/吨，但同比仍偏低35、28、28元/吨。 近期动力煤市场需求保持较好，叠加中下游环节库存多处于同比偏低水平和"迎峰度冬"消费预期影响， 市场乐观情绪持续保持，推动价格不断走高。 浙商证券发布研报称，量变渐成质变，煤价强势，开启四季度的第二波上涨，预计11月20日前后日耗开 始上涨，电厂将持续采购。"严安全"约束供给，煤价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery phase driven by seasonal demand and supply-side policies that restrict overproduction, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices [1][6][10]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - A significant drop in temperatures across northern regions has initiated the heating season, increasing coal demand from steel mills and thermal power plants [1]. - The coal price has been rising due to high demand and supply-side policies aimed at reducing overproduction, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price increasing from 621 RMB/ton to 699 RMB/ton from June to September 2025, a rise of 12.6% [6][10]. - The coal market is expected to benefit from seasonal demand as heating needs rise, with predictions of a colder winter potentially boosting coal procurement [10][11]. Group 2: Company Performance - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy have shown signs of improvement in their financial metrics, with China Shenhua's Q3 revenue decline narrowing to 12.56% year-on-year, compared to a 16.05% decline in the first half of the year [2][5]. - China Shenhua's coal business gross margin improved from 29.4% to 30.5% due to effective cost control, while China Coal Energy's net profit rebounded by 28.3% quarter-on-quarter despite a slight year-on-year decline [2][3]. - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company reported a 4.92% increase in coal production year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating stable operational performance amidst industry challenges [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The coal sector has seen a significant influx of capital, with over 2 billion RMB net inflow into coal stocks in October, making it one of the hottest sectors in the secondary market [1]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is currently at 14.82, indicating that the sector is undervalued compared to historical standards, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - High dividend payouts from major coal companies, such as China Shenhua's interim dividend of 0.98 RMB per share, reflect strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing the sector's attractiveness [12].

消息面上，近日，我国自北向南将先后迎来"速冻式"降温。北方东北、华北等地区冬储补库已提前启 动，南北双重补库需求形成共振。此外，进入10月，煤炭主产地连续异常秋雨，晋陕蒙主产区限产政策 持续深化，叠加11月中央安全生产考核巡查临近，此外，生态环保督查力度同步加大，进一步强化了产 地供应的刚性约束。 国元国际指出，随着"反内卷"政策持续发力，国内煤炭供应将受到一定抑制，而需求端在冬季供暖和工 业旺季的双重推动下将有所增长，供需关系有望从"结构性过剩"逐步转向"紧平衡"。动力煤方面，近期 超产核查，严安全及大秦线检修等因素共同制约供给释放，叠加"大寒潮"冷冬预期增强，短期煤价有望 持续上涨。焦煤方面，监管政策下焦煤供给延续偏紧，旺季期间铁水产量仍处于高位，叠加部分钢厂及 焦化厂原料煤库存水平偏低，短期焦煤价格仍有支撑，以稳为主。 煤炭板块23日盘中大幅走高，截至发稿，陕西黑猫、云煤能源、郑州煤电、大有能源、辽宁能源等涨 停，安泰集团涨超7%。值得注意的是，大有能源近10个交易日已斩获9个涨停板，累计涨近150%。 该机构表示，国资委国有企业经济运行座谈会，将"稳电价"与"稳煤价"并列为核心议题，强调"坚决抵 制' ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The social inventory of coal continues to decline, and the significant rise in futures prices boosts market confidence [6] - The coal sector has shown a mixed performance, with the CITIC coal industry index rising by 1.23%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 4.18% [2] - The coal supply-demand balance is improving, with a slight decrease in coal prices during the off-season, while coking coal production may see a marginal improvement due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the average daily coal sales of monitored enterprises were 7.08 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2] - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 26.71 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [2] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 671 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 1,141.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 6.7% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6] - The overall coal supply-demand structure is expected to improve, with a gradual balance in supply and demand in the second half of the year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal inventory has decreased year-on-year for the first time, indicating a continuous improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.77% as of August 15, 2025, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.37% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises was 26.18 million tons as of August 14, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [2] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market is improving, with significant price increases for thermal coal and potential marginal improvements in the coking coal sector due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 15, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 670 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily sales volume of thermal coal increased by 0.6% week-on-week [2] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,630 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] - The inventory of coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 5.4% week-on-week [4] Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of methanol in East China was 2,354.55 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.86 CNY/ton [5] - The price of urea in Henan was 1,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 CNY/ton [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6] - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal; and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [6]