Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [13][14]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price has surged by 104 CNY/ton in just one month, reaching 809 CNY/ton, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes a "stop-and-go" upward trend in coal prices, suggesting that any increase will not be linear but will involve periods of stabilization and correction [1][8]. - The demand for coal is expected to rise seasonally with the onset of heating in northern regions, while supply remains limited due to safety inspections and production constraints [1][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The coal sector has seen a significant recovery, with the coal index rising by 4.43% recently, outperforming the broader market [2][80]. - The report notes a stark contrast in performance, with the coal sector previously lagging behind other sectors earlier in the year [2]. Price Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal price is influenced by three main factors: production cuts, low port inventories, and strong seasonal demand, which collectively catalyze rapid price increases [15][39]. - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports reached a new high of 809 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 39 CNY/ton [9][39]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that coal production has been constrained due to regulatory measures and safety inspections, leading to a continuous decline in output over the past three months [5][10]. - The demand for coal has exceeded expectations due to extreme weather conditions, which have significantly increased electricity consumption [5][10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks in the coal sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while also considering second-tier stocks as coal prices continue to rise [6][14]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others that are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases and market dynamics [14][6].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025Q3净利润环比增长约22%，前三季度同比降幅约29%， 环比而言，动力煤、无烟煤公司业绩改善明显，但焦煤公司业绩仍在下行。四季度以来，冬储需求提前 释放带动煤价表现超预期，后续随旺季深入，行业或仍将出现阶段性的供给紧张，Q4煤价环比涨幅或 超过15%。目前板块的政策、煤价以及业绩预期都在改善，板块Q4行情具备持续性。 中信证券主要观点如下： 样本上市公司Q3净利润环比上涨，但各板块有明显分化。 从加总净利润口径比较，煤炭上市公司前三季度业绩同比下降29%，Q3单季净利润环比增长22%，业绩 环比上升主要是市场煤价环比上涨、动力煤企业盈利改善所带动。分煤种而言，动力煤/冶金煤/无烟煤 板块企业加总净利润环比变动分别+29%/-52% /+34%，焦炭公司则普遍亏损，显示板块之间有明显分 化。 三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓，四季度上述约 束供给释放的因素依然维持，需求端，10月份北方降温加快，冬储需求也提前释放，考虑今年北方冬季 持续时间长，后续或有补库需求叠加，12月份供给或再度出现缺口。我们预计Q4港口动力煤均价环 ...

主要风险在于：在建矿井投产进度超预期，下游需求不及预期，安检力度不及预期，历史经验失效。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月24日电国盛证券最新研报表示，坚定看好后续煤炭板块行情。 该机构具体指出，年初至今（截至9月19日），煤炭（中信）跌幅2.3%，涨幅位列30个行业中倒数第 一；9月19日当周，煤炭（中信）周涨幅3.6%，涨幅位列30个行业中第二，反差明显。"寒冬已过，暖 春将至"， 煤价震荡上行，年底或以最高点收官，提供板块上行动力，"我们坚定看好后续煤炭板块行 情。" ...