1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - As of the market conditions on March 13, combining the "Gain - Crowding" quadrant chart and ETF fund flow, the agricultural sector is worthy of continuous attention. The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings, possibly due to capital betting on the price - rising logic. The breeding sector shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty [1][23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - From March 9 - 13, the market fluctuated and declined. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6750.45, a 0.48% decrease from March 6 [6]. - The ChiNext performed better. From March 9 - 13, most major stock indexes pulled back. The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.51% and 0.76% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the CSI 500 fell by 2.88% and 1.44% respectively [9]. - Stock - type ETFs maintained a net outflow. From March 9 - 12, stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 20.904 billion yuan, with a larger outflow scale compared to March 2 - 5. Among them, broad - based index ETFs had a net outflow of 28.299 billion yuan, industry - index ETFs had a net outflow of 1.364 billion yuan, and theme - index ETFs had a net inflow of 4.807 billion yuan [11][12]. - At the industry level, batteries and coal led the gains. The battery index rose by 8.40%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose to 68.6%, an increase of 37.4 percentage points. The coal index rose by 6.60%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose 7.50 percentage points to 59.70%. Aerospace and military industry and non - ferrous metals fell significantly, and their crowding degrees declined from high levels. The agricultural and livestock sector rose moderately, with little change in crowding degree. The chemical industry index fell slightly, but its crowding degree increased significantly [15][16]. 3.2 Follow - up Attention - The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings and is a direction for capital to bet on the price - rising logic. The agricultural ETF rose 2.68% this week, with a net inflow of 717 million yuan. It has had a net inflow for 9 consecutive days, with a cumulative 1.095 billion yuan, accounting for 29.48% of its fund scale [23]. - The breeding sector also shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The breeding ETF rose 1.54% this week, with a net inflow of 447 million yuan. If the policy implementation intensity increases, the price of live pigs may recover, and the sector still has upward space [23]. - The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty. From March 9 - 12, the chemical ETF fell 0.42%, with a net outflow of 557 million yuan. After the Spring Festival, the cashing pressure in the sector increased, and from February 24 to March 13, there was a cumulative net outflow of 1.39 billion yuan. The index crowding degree has risen to a relatively high level since 2020 [24]. - The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The battery ETF and the coal ETF rose 8.49% and 6.63% respectively this week, with net outflows of 309 million yuan and 795 million yuan respectively. The battery sector may adjust in the short term, and the subsequent market of the coal sector is greatly affected by the situation in the Middle East [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on two research reports, constructing a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - From 20260302 - 20260306, the strategy's cumulative net return was about -2.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about -1.01%. From October 14, 2024, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 35.44%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 11.95% [3] - In the week of March 9, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, power, and securities. The strategy will newly hold products like Bank ETF, Green Power ETF, etc., and continue to hold products like Coal ETF [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Strategy Portfolio Information - The strategy portfolio includes multiple ETFs, such as Bank ETF (market value: 14.61 billion yuan), Green Power ETF (market value: 5.13 billion yuan), etc. The holding situation includes调入 (newly included) and 继续持有 (continue to hold). Different ETFs have different heavy - position Shenwan industries and corresponding weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals [3] Performance Tracking - During 20260302 - 20260306, the strategy's cumulative net return was about -2.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about -1.01%. From October 14, 2024, the out - of - sample cumulative return of the strategy was about 35.44%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 11.95% [3] Future Recommended Allocation - In the week of March 9, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, power, and securities. The strategy will newly hold products like Bank ETF, Green Power ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF Guotou Ruixin, Grid Equipment ETF, Central Enterprise ETF ICBC, etc., and continue to hold products like Coal ETF [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013), constructing a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs [2] - From 20260224 - 20260227, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 0.44%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.71%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 38.54%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 13.71% [5] - In the week of 20260302, the model recommends allocating sectors such as real estate development, cement, and batteries. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products such as Building Materials ETF, Battery ETF Huitianfu, Bank ETF, and Game ETF, and continue to hold products such as Real Estate ETF and Tourism ETF [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Update - The strategy constructs a portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs, with reference to two previous research reports [2] 3.2 ETF Portfolio Information | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Holding Status | Heavy - held SW Industry and Weights | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159707 | Real Estate ETF | 6.65 | Continue to hold | Real estate development (100%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159745 | Building Materials ETF | 26.61 | Add | Cement (45.24%) | 1 | 1 | | 159796 | Battery ETF Huitianfu | 84.32 | Add | Batteries (64.18%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 512800 | Bank ETF | 114.46 | Add | Joint - stock banks (42.01%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | 122.27 | Add | Games (83.85%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159766 | Tourism ETF | 78.92 | Continue to hold | Aviation and airports (33.21%) | 0 | 0 | | 515220 | Coal ETF | 94.06 | Add | Coal mining (88.96%) | 1 | 1 | | 159328 | Home Appliance ETF E Fund | 1.21 | Add | White goods (43.01%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 515650 | Consumption 50 ETF | 36.27 | Add | Baijiu (28%) | - 1 | 0 | | 515760 | Zhejiang State - owned Assets ETF Huaxia | 1.44 | Add | City commercial banks (20.13%) | 0 | 0 | [3] 3.3 Performance Tracking - From 20260224 - 20260227, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 0.44%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.71% - From October 14, 2024 to now, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 38.54%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 13.71% [5] 3.4 Portfolio Adjustment and Recommendations - In the week of 20260302, the model recommends allocating sectors such as real estate development, cement, and batteries - In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products such as Building Materials ETF, Battery ETF Huitianfu, Bank ETF, and Game ETF, and continue to hold products such as Real Estate ETF and Tourism ETF [13]

Core Viewpoint - The main theme in the capital market since the beginning of 2026 has been "price increases," which has permeated various industries and become a focal point for market transactions [10] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed divergence today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% in the afternoon, while the ChiNext Index fell by over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Price Increase Trends - Since the beginning of the year, 25 out of the top 30 concept indices have been related to the "price increase" logic, indicating a broadening trend across various sectors including oil and gas, chemicals, construction materials, and technology [10] - The "price increase" is expected to be a core factor driving market style diffusion throughout the year, reflecting industry prosperity [10] Group 3: Steel Sector Insights - The steel ETF has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 10.64% this week, driven by both supply and demand catalysts [13] - Demand-side factors include favorable real estate policies in key cities, while supply-side factors indicate a contraction in 2026, leading to an accelerated phase of industry consolidation [13][14] - The steel sector is currently viewed as a bottoming area with significant elasticity potential, as low inventory levels could lead to price increases if demand catalyzes [14] Group 4: Rare Metals Surge - Rare metals such as tungsten and rare earths have seen a collective surge, with several stocks hitting historical highs, driven by four main factors [5][6] - The first factor is a dramatic increase in spot prices, with tungsten prices reaching 1.0225 million yuan per ton, up 3.7 times from the previous year [6] - The second factor is a tightening supply side, with mining quotas and environmental regulations limiting production capacity [6] - The third factor is the explosive demand from emerging industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and semiconductors [6] - The fourth factor involves a global reassessment of critical mineral strategies, which has added a "safety premium" to these commodities [7] Group 5: Coal Sector Developments - The coal ETF rose by 2.82% today, influenced by production halts during the Spring Festival and ongoing reductions in Indonesian coal output [18] - The coal market is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing production capacity, with potential upward price elasticity if market conditions exceed expectations [19] - The coal sector is viewed as having room for a rebound, especially as other commodities have seen significant price increases [19]

Group 1 - The coal industry is currently in a state of tight supply and demand balance, with domestic coal production being constrained due to strict safety regulations and a decrease in imported coal [1] - Despite the arrival of the traditional off-season, downstream power plants are consuming more coal than the same period last year, and non-electric demand, such as from the chemical sector, remains robust, supporting coal prices [1] - Overall coal market inventory is at a medium-low level, and prices are expected to maintain a high level of fluctuation, with industry profitability likely to remain stable, offering high dividends and cash flow as defensive attributes [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The CSI Coal Index employs equal-weight distribution, featuring approximately 33 constituent securities, and is regularly adjusted to ensure accurate reflection of industry dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) rose over 3% on February 24, indicating a potential upward trend in the coal sector due to supply-side factors [1] - As of February 5, private coal mines in Shaanxi began to suspend operations for the holiday, and from February 10, most private coal mines in Inner Mongolia also halted production, leading to a low overall operating level for coal mines [1] - The capacity utilization rate in the "Three West" regions is at 85.5%, a week-on-week decrease of 3.3 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The domestic coal production capacity is expected to decrease, and the quantity of imported coal is likely to shrink, suggesting that the bottom of the coal sector may have been reached, with an upward trend anticipated [2] - The coal ETF tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing, reflecting the overall performance of the coal industry with high dividend yields and cyclical volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has surged over 3%, with expectations for a steady recovery in coal prices in the future [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - By 2026, supply growth is expected to significantly decline compared to previous periods, while demand is anticipated to improve, particularly in 2026 [1] - During the Spring Festival, both supply and demand for thermal coal weakened, but demand is expected to gradually recover post-holiday, supported by lower inventory levels [1] - For coking coal, although downstream demand has decreased near the Spring Festival, overall inventory remains at a medium-low level, with expectations for a rebound in demand during the peak season after the holiday [1] Group 2: Industry Profitability and Valuation - The industry’s profitability outlook is expected to improve by 2026, with notable advantages in valuation and dividend yield for the sector [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing, reflecting the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The index employs an equal-weight distribution method to represent the diversified characteristics of the industry, exhibiting high dividend yields and cyclical volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop of over 30% in the net value of Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF raises critical questions about the underlying design logic of the product, highlighting the challenges in implementing hedging strategies to mitigate losses [1][4]. Group 1: Product Design and Investor Expectations - Investors are suggesting that the fund company should temporarily break conventional rules to use derivatives for hedging, but industry insiders indicate that this is difficult due to product positioning, risk matching, and operational feasibility [1][5]. - The fund's design aims to track silver prices closely, with strict guidelines limiting the use of derivatives to maintain its passive tracking nature, which would be compromised by introducing hedging strategies [6][7]. Group 2: Risk and Suitability of Investors - The introduction of hedging strategies could misalign with the risk tolerance of current investors, as these strategies may introduce new risks that could exacerbate losses [7]. - The fund's current scale and risk profile are aligned with its existing investors, and any changes to the investment strategy could lead to a mismatch in risk tolerance [7]. Group 3: Operational Feasibility and Market Comparisons - Achieving perfect hedging through derivatives for a single asset like silver is unrealistic, and even similar products in overseas markets face challenges [8]. - The closest comparable product in the U.S. market, PowerShares DB Silver Fund, has faced significant issues, including a complete liquidation due to market volatility [8]. Group 4: International Product Insights - Internationally, physical silver ETFs and other investment vehicles are more prevalent, with physical silver ETFs offering a more viable model for addressing high entry barriers and storage costs in the domestic market [10][11]. - The design of physical silver ETFs could provide a framework that aligns with regulatory requirements and investor risk preferences, potentially filling gaps in the domestic silver investment landscape [11]. Group 5: Future Considerations and Industry Reflection - The recent valuation event of Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF has prompted a reevaluation of product designs within the public fund industry, emphasizing the need for improved risk management standards [17]. - The industry may need to adapt its product design philosophy and risk control measures in response to extreme market conditions, as current frameworks may not adequately address unforeseen market volatility [17].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop of over 30% in the net value of Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF raises questions about the underlying design logic of the product, prompting investors to seek temporary measures to mitigate losses through derivative hedging, which faces substantial barriers in terms of product positioning, risk matching, and practical implementation [2][4][5]. Group 1: Product Design and Intent - The primary intent of the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF is to track silver price movements, utilizing futures contracts due to their liquidity, while the physical silver market lacks sufficient depth for large capital movements [6]. - The product is designed to maintain a tracking deviation of no more than 0.5% daily and an annual tracking error of no more than 7%, indicating its nature as a passive tracking tool rather than an actively managed product [6]. Group 2: Investor Suitability and Risk - Introducing hedging mechanisms could misalign the product's risk profile with the existing investors' risk tolerance, as the current holders are matched to a medium-high risk level [7]. - The complexity of hedging strategies may introduce new risks, potentially exacerbating losses if the hedging fails, which could lead to a mismatch between the product's risk and the investors' capacity to bear it [7]. Group 3: Practical Implementation Challenges - Achieving perfect hedging through derivatives for a single asset like silver is unrealistic, and even similar products in overseas markets face challenges, such as the PowerShares DB Silver Fund, which has been affected by futures roll costs and market volatility [8]. - The historical limitations of product design mean that the current framework cannot adequately address extreme market conditions, highlighting the unpredictability of market behavior [9]. Group 4: International Product Comparisons - Internationally, the main silver investment products include physical silver ETFs, silver futures, and silver mining ETFs, with physical silver ETFs being particularly relevant for the Chinese market due to their ability to address high entry barriers and storage costs [11]. - The design of physical silver ETFs, which combines physical backing with share issuance, could provide a model for domestic products, enhancing tracking accuracy and reducing costs [11]. Group 5: Future Product Development - The potential transition of Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF to a QDII-FOF model faces fundamental challenges, particularly regarding the underlying assets, as investing in futures would not fundamentally improve the current model [14]. - The inability to launch a silver ETF in China due to tax implications on physical silver investments presents a significant barrier to developing more effective investment products [14].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop of over 30% in the net value of Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF has raised questions about the underlying design logic of the product, prompting investors to suggest temporary measures such as using derivatives for hedging to mitigate losses, which industry insiders deem difficult due to product positioning, risk matching, and operational feasibility [1][2]. Group 1: Product Design and Intent - The primary intent of the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF is to track silver price movements, utilizing futures contracts due to their liquidity, while the spot market lacks sufficient depth for large transactions [3]. - The product is designed to maintain a tracking deviation of no more than 0.5% daily and an annual tracking error of no more than 7%, indicating its nature as a passive tracking tool rather than an actively managed product [3]. Group 2: Investor Suitability and Risk - Introducing hedging mechanisms could misalign the risk profile of the fund with the existing investors' risk tolerance, as the current fund holders are matched to a medium-high risk level [4]. - The complexity of hedging strategies may introduce new risks, potentially exacerbating losses rather than mitigating them, which raises concerns about the appropriateness of such strategies for current investors [4]. Group 3: Operational Feasibility and Market Comparison - Achieving perfect hedging through derivatives for a single asset like silver is unrealistic, and even in international markets, similar products that effectively manage such risks are scarce [5]. - The closest international counterpart, the PowerShares DB Silver Fund, faced challenges due to futures contract roll costs and market volatility, leading to its liquidation in March 2023 [5]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Structures - Internationally, physical silver ETFs and silver mining ETFs are more prevalent, with physical silver ETFs offering a more accessible investment structure that could address high entry barriers and storage costs in the domestic market [8]. - The design of physical silver ETFs, which combines physical backing with share issuance, could enhance tracking accuracy and reduce costs, making it suitable for domestic investors [8]. Group 5: Future Considerations for Product Design - The current situation highlights the historical limitations of product design, which did not anticipate extreme market conditions, suggesting a need for a thorough review of product categories and risk management standards in the industry [14]. - Future product designs may need to adapt based on lessons learned from this incident, potentially leading to changes in risk control measures and investment strategies [14].