2025.08. 24 本文字数：2293，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 反内卷浪潮下，光伏、锂电池行业产能出清会议频开，引发市场高度关注。 "当前光伏、锂电池等板块的估值修复仅完成初期阶段，未来随着产能利用率提升，行情或将逐步见 顶。" 富国基金量化投资部ETF投资总监王乐乐于8月23日在2025雪球指数基金领袖峰会上分析 称，而农业、化工、建材等曾同样受困于"低价竞争"的传统行业，正通过差异化突围、产业链重构 与需求升级，成为"反内卷"背景下更具确定性的结构性机会所在。 近期A股市场"反内卷"题材轮动仍在继续，除了光伏、锂电，化工、农业等板块的资金关注度也快速 抬升。截至8月24日，化工50ETF、建材ETF、煤炭ETF、农业ETF，自七月以来累计涨幅分别为 16%、15%、10%、8%。 华创证券研究所副所长张瑜也在分析报告中提到，钢铁、水泥、光伏设备、能源金属等反内卷主题板 块近期表现强劲，多数跑赢大盘。政策面上，要求盘活存量、做优增量，通过优化竞争秩序推动传统 产业升级与新质生产力创新。而反内卷并非短期主题，背后是行业盈利改善与竞争生态优化的中长期 逻辑。 锂电、光伏"退烧"，产能出 ...

反内卷行情进入第二阶段 反内卷浪潮下，光伏、锂电池行业产能出清会议频开，引发市场高度关注。 "当前光伏、锂电池等板块的估值修复仅完成初期阶段，未来随着产能利用率提升，行情或将逐步见 顶。" 富国基金量化投资部ETF投资总监王乐乐于8月23日在2025雪球指数基金领袖峰会上分析称，而农 业、化工、建材等曾同样受困于"低价竞争"的传统行业，正通过差异化突围、产业链重构与需求升级， 成为"反内卷"背景下更具确定性的结构性机会所在。 近期A股市场"反内卷"题材轮动仍在继续，除了光伏、锂电，化工、农业等板块的资金关注度也快速抬 升。截至8月24日，化工50ETF、建材ETF、煤炭ETF、农业ETF，自七月以来累计涨幅分别为16%、 15%、10%、8%。 华创证券研究所副所长张瑜也在分析报告中提到，钢铁、水泥、光伏设备、能源金属等反内卷主题板块 近期表现强劲，多数跑赢大盘。政策面上，要求盘活存量、做优增量，通过优化竞争秩序推动传统产业 升级与新质生产力创新。而反内卷并非短期主题，背后是行业盈利改善与竞争生态优化的中长期逻辑。 机构看好化工、农业板块结构性机会 "内卷的本质是低效竞争导致的增收不增利陷阱企业陷入增产、降价 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《OpenAI 发布 GPT-5，Claude Opus 4.1 上线——AI 动态汇总 20250811》 - 2025.08.12 《融资余额新高，创新药光通信调整， 指数预期仍将震荡上行挑战前高—— 行业轮动周报 20250810》 - 2025.8.11 《ETF 资金偏谨慎流入消费红利防守， 银行提前调整使指数回调空间可控— — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250803 》 - 2025.08.04 《ETF 资金持续净流出医药，雅下水电 站成短线情绪突破口——行业轮动周 报 20250727》 – 2025.07.28 《ETF 资金净流入红利流出高位医药， 指数与大金融回调有明显托底——行 业轮动周报 20250720》 – 2025.07.21 《大金融表现居前助指数突破，GRU 行 业轮动调入非银行金融—— ...

反内卷背景下，煤炭ETF（515220）持续吸金，连续10日净流入额超19亿元，近20日净流入额超28 亿元，当前规模超93亿元。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过煤炭ETF的联接基金（008280）把握煤炭板块的投资机会。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 注：市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。。如需购买相关基金产品，请 选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 国盛证券表示，国家能源局此前发布关于核查煤矿超能力生产的通知，是煤价自21年~22年见顶回 落以来，首次针对供应端采取一定措施，使得煤价具备了见底反转的必要条件。目前煤炭供应中长期均 存隐患，煤价上行想象空间打开。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3686.34 points, marking the highest level since December 2021, with a significant increase of 2.81% in the index [1] - AI hardware continues to drive market momentum, with the CPO concept reaching multiple historical highs, and sectors such as industrial gases showing strong performance [1] - Conversely, sectors like chicken, coal, and Xinjiang experienced declines [1] Group 2 - In the ETF market, AI hardware remains a strong performer, with notable increases in various ETFs: Dachen's AI ETF up by 5.24%, Fortune's communication equipment ETF up by 4.96%, and Huabao's AI ETF up by 4.64% [5] - The innovative drug sector also saw a rebound, with Fortune's innovative drug ETF rising by 3.85% and Guotai's innovative drug ETF up by 3.59% [5] - Hong Kong stocks followed the upward trend, with Fortune's internet ETF increasing by 3.72% [5] Group 3 - The 800 cash flow ETF, which had shown unusual gains previously, fell by 2.53% [6] - The energy sector declined, with coal ETFs and energy ETFs from Guangfa dropping by 0.81% and 0.62% respectively [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and notes that the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [3][23] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, as well as the oil and gas extraction industry, have shown a downward trend in fixed asset investment completion year-on-year since 2025 [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation measures, which aim to prevent disorderly capacity expansion and "involution" competition in the industry [22] Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a decline of 0.54% during the period from July 28 to August 8, 2025 [3][11] - The top-performing industry indices during this period included SSH Gold Stocks (4.88%) and Subdivided Nonferrous Metals (0.83%) [3][10] - The report notes significant capital inflows into the infrastructure engineering sector, while the rare metals and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial capital outflows [11] Key Industry Dynamics - In the chemical sector, the report indicates that major raw material purchase price indices reached a new high of 51.5% in July, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from June [23] - The coal sector is under scrutiny, with the National Energy Administration planning to conduct production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable supply [3][28] - The report suggests monitoring the Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) and Coal ETF (515220.SH) for potential investment opportunities [3][12] Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical announced the resumption of production at its Fujian Industrial Park, which had been under maintenance since June 5, 2025 [25] - Salt Lake Co. disclosed plans for share buybacks to enhance investor confidence, with a recent increase in shareholding by its controlling shareholder [26] - Juhua Co. projected a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with an expected growth of 146% to 166% year-on-year [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the equity ETF series, suggesting a patient hold while waiting for follow-up on lower-tier targets [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a strategy of patience, indicating that investors should hold their positions and await developments in lower-tier assets [2][19]. Market Overview - A-share market performance from August 4 to August 8, 2025, shows the top three broad indices were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (4.49%) - CSI 2000 (3.54%) - CSI 1000 (2.51%) - The bottom three were: - ChiNext Index (0.49%) - STAR 50 (0.65%) - CSI 300 (1.23%) [11][14]. Style Index Performance - The top three style indices during the same period were: - Cyclical (CITIC Style) (3.49%) - Small Cap Growth (2.59%) - Giant Tide Small Cap (2.05%) - The bottom three were: - Consumer (CITIC Style) (0.77%) - Giant Tide Mid Cap (1.11%) - Large Cap Growth (1.17%) [14][15]. Industry Index Performance - The top three Shenwan first-level industry indices were: - National Defense and Military Industry (5.93%) - Nonferrous Metals (5.78%) - Machinery Equipment (5.37%) - The bottom three were: - Pharmaceutical Biology (-0.84%) - Computer (-0.41%) - Commercial Retail (-0.38%) [16][17]. Market Outlook - The macro model for August indicates a score of 0, with a 75% historical probability of an increase, suggesting a favorable outlook for the A-share market in August [19][25]. - The technical timing model indicates that the Wind All A Index is currently in an overbought state, with a risk level of 103.77, suggesting potential for increased volatility [19][22]. - The report notes that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains positive, and investors should maintain their positions [19][21]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced ETF allocation strategy, indicating that lower-tier assets may present significant opportunities in the short term [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is experiencing a shift from broad-based products to sector-specific investments, with significant outflows from broad-based ETFs and inflows into thematic ETFs, indicating changing investor preferences [2][5][8]. Group 1: ETF Market Trends - As of August 5, stock ETFs have seen a net outflow of 628 billion yuan over the past month, marking a decline below 1 trillion units for the first time since October of the previous year [2][5]. - Broad-based ETFs, particularly those tracking the CSI A500 index, have faced severe redemption pressures, with only one out of 38 products seeing net inflows [5][6]. - In contrast, thematic ETFs have attracted 176 billion yuan in net inflows, with sectors like dividends, banking, and coal being popular among investors [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The ETF market, valued at 4.64 trillion yuan, is characterized by a significant concentration of assets, with the top ten firms controlling nearly 80% of the market share [2][8]. - Major players like Huaxia and E Fund have seen their ETF scales increase by over 100 billion yuan this year, while many smaller firms struggle to reach 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many mid-sized firms facing high resource and cost barriers, leading to a "war of attrition" in the market [3][9]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are shifting their focus from broad-based ETFs to sector-specific products, reflecting a desire for more targeted investment strategies during market fluctuations [7][10]. - The trend indicates that investors are looking for higher returns through short-term trading in strong sectors, rather than relying on the broader market [7][10]. Group 4: Challenges for Fund Companies - The ETF business, while seen as a growth avenue, presents significant resource and cost challenges, particularly for smaller firms [9][10]. - The high costs associated with system maintenance, marketing, and operations make it difficult for smaller companies to compete effectively in the ETF space [9][10]. - Despite these challenges, some mid-sized firms are beginning to re-evaluate their strategies and invest in ETF capabilities to capture market opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) has shown strong upward momentum, breaking through the 3600-point mark and reaching a nearly three-year closing high, indicating robust market enthusiasm and inflow of external funds [1][2] Market Analysis - The recent rally in the A-share market is characterized by a significant increase in both price and volume, with external funds actively entering the market. Despite a brief pullback, the market quickly recovered, suggesting a strong trend-driven momentum [1] - The high point of the "924" rally is becoming a common target for bullish investors, while various support levels such as moving averages and key price points help mitigate the risk of substantial declines [1][2] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "time-space substitution" strategy by allocating to core broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) to capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [2] - Additionally, a "low-to-high rotation" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors like coal and photovoltaic ETFs that have underperformed this year, aiming to seize potential rebound opportunities under the backdrop of "anti-involution" policies [2]