| 燃料油早报 | | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/25 | | --- | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/18 | 3426 | 3391 | 3477 | 35 | -86 | 51 | | 2025/08/19 | 3417 | 3390 | 3452 | 27 | -62 | 35 | | 2025/08/20 | 3411 | 3376 | 3422 | 35 | -46 | 11 | | 2025/08/21 | 3443 | 3413 | 3456 | 30 | -43 | 13 | | 2025/08/22 | 3462 | 3384 | 3468 | 78 | -84 | 6 | | 变化 | 19 | -29 | 12 | 48 | -41 | -7 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周新加坡380cst高硫裂解走弱，近月月差走弱（9-10 0.75 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国内期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一。烧碱涨超2%，丁二烯橡胶、橡胶、20号胶（NR）涨超 1%。跌幅方面，燃料油、低硫燃料油（LU）跌近1%。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in early trading, with Shanghai gold and silver, as well as lithium carbonate, rising over 1% [1] - Lumber and iron ore also increased by nearly 1% [1] - On the downside, industrial silicon fell over 4%, while eggs, fuel oil, and polysilicon dropped more than 3% [1] Group 2 - SC crude oil, glass, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) experienced declines of nearly 3% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] - SC crude oil fell over 3%, while焦炭 (coke) dropped nearly 3%, reflecting a significant downturn in energy and commodity prices [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU),焦煤 (coking coal), and fuel oil all decreased by more than 2%, suggesting a broader decline in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - On the positive side,沪金 (Shanghai gold) and red dates saw an increase of over 1%, indicating some resilience in specific commodities [1] -沪锡 (Shanghai tin) and沪银 (Shanghai silver) also rose by nearly 1%, highlighting a slight uptick in precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic futures main contracts experienced a decline, with most contracts closing lower on August 1st [1][2] - Coking coal fell by nearly 3%, while low-sulfur fuel oil and coking coal dropped over 2%, and fuel oil decreased by nearly 2% [1] - Other commodities such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), caustic soda, asphalt, palm oil, rubber, and rebar also saw declines exceeding 1% [1] - On the positive side, soybean meal increased by nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows a trend of more declines than increases among the main contracts, with coking coal dropping nearly 3% and low-sulfur fuel oil and coking coal both falling over 2% [1] - Other commodities such as fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), caustic soda, asphalt, palm oil, rubber, and rebar also experienced declines of over 1% [1] - In contrast, soybean meal saw an increase of nearly 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。多晶硅涨超4%，锰硅、低硫燃料油（LU）、工业硅涨超2%， 烧碱、硅铁、SC原油、燃料油涨超1%；跌幅方面，玻璃、焦煤跌超7%，碳酸锂跌超5%，纯碱跌超 4%，焦炭、苹果跌超3%。 ...

截至23:00收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，焦煤涨超6%，纯碱、玻璃、焦炭涨超3%。跌幅方面，沥 青跌超1%，豆油、菜粕、低硫燃料油（LU）跌近1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market showed significant gains across major contracts, indicating a bullish trend in various commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal rose over 3%, reflecting strong demand and market confidence [1] - Rubber, No. 20 rubber, and coking coal increased by more than 2%, suggesting positive market sentiment [1] - Iron ore, PX, butadiene rubber, hot-rolled steel, and glass all saw gains exceeding 1%, indicating a broad-based rally in the commodity sector [1] Group 2: Decline in Specific Commodities - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU) experienced a slight decline, contrasting with the overall positive performance of other commodities [1]