人民财讯10月9日电，国内期货主力合约开盘涨跌互现，沪金涨超4%，棕榈油、沪银涨超2%；跌幅方 面，生猪、鸡蛋、液化石油气（LPG）跌超4%，集运欧线、低硫燃料油（LU）跌超2%。 （原标题：国内期货主力合约开盘涨跌互现 沪金涨超4%） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market experienced a mixed performance on September 25, with most main contracts closing lower, while some commodities saw slight gains [1] Group 2 - In terms of price movements, vegetable oil and vegetable meal increased by nearly 1%, while low-sulfur fuel oil also rose close to 1% [1] - On the downside, butadiene rubber and No. 20 rubber fell by over 2%, while rubber, coking coal, and coking coke dropped by more than 1%. Methanol decreased by nearly 1% [1]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯9月23日电，国内期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，燃料油、沪银、低硫燃料油（LU）、沪金涨超 1%；跌幅方面，豆粕、菜粕、豆二、烧碱跌近1%。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures market shows mixed performance with SC crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil dropping over 1% while焦煤,沪金,橡胶, and豆二 rising nearly 1% [1] - London spot gold prices reached a historical high, increasing by 4.03% to $3586.34 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - U.S. non-farm payrolls for August reported only 22,000 jobs added, significantly below the average of 150,000, indicating a weakening labor market [3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.32%, the highest level since 2021, reflecting increased employment risks [3] - Upcoming inflation data, including August CPI and PPI, will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut decisions [3] - Market sentiment is leaning towards a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September due to the weak employment data [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The Fed's expected rate cut and a falling US dollar index support the non - ferrous metals market. Domestic copper supply is expected to tighten, while demand is expected to improve during the peak season. Attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but production cut disturbances continue. The market rumors of production cuts and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations drive up the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and possible sanctions on Russian oil [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. Given that the futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range and the OPEC+ meeting this weekend may have a significant impact, it is recommended to close short positions for now [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. Downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, which may bring some support [15][17]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the开工 rate has decreased recently. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, which may boost demand [18]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory pressure is high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal are both in the process of recovery. Anti - involution measures are ongoing, and capital sentiment is volatile. Caution is advised when taking long or short positions [21]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to trade weakly in the short term, with possible technical rebounds later. Domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export support is limited [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - As of the close on September 5, most domestic futures contracts rose. Polysilicon rose 8.99% and hit the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke rose over 4%. In terms of declines, eggs, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell [6]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2511 had an inflow of 1.901 billion, rubber 2601 had an inflow of 901 million, and palm oil 2601 had an inflow of 556 million. The CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.704 billion, the CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.179 billion, and the CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 2.692 billion [7]. **Analysis of Each Variety** - **Copper**: Due to the lower - than - expected US ADP employment data, the Fed's expected rate cut expands, and the US dollar index falls. The processing fee of smelters has decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price is at a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and domestic copper production is expected to decline. Although it is currently the off - season, copper demand is boosted by investment in power grid facilities. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The supply in Jiangxi has shrunk, but the increase in spodumene production has made up for the gap. The national audit agency's policy on mines in Yichun needs attention. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - **Crude Oil**: It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA data shows an unexpected inventory build - up in crude oil and an unexpected de - stocking in gasoline. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. The US - India tariff issue may change the global crude oil trade flow [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate has declined, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased but remains at a low level. The cost support has weakened due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [14]. - **PP**: The downstream construction rate has rebounded slightly, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production. As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate has increased. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has increased slightly. The supply has increased, and the downstream construction rate is still low. The export outlook is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. New production capacity is being released [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. Most of the temporarily shut - down mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, and the inventory of mines has dropped significantly. Downstream coke production is active, and steel mills' profits have weakened. After the parade, steel mill production is expected to increase [21]. - **Urea**: The upstream factory price is weakly stable, and new orders are scarce. The Indian tender price is significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume has reached a record high. The daily production of urea is at a low level, but the supply pattern remains loose. The demand from compound fertilizer factories has decreased but is expected to recover. The factory inventory has increased [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market saw a majority of the main contracts rise, with polysilicon increasing by over 5% [1] - Other commodities such as焦煤 (coking coal),橡胶 (rubber), 丁二烯橡胶 (butadiene rubber), and 20号胶 (No. 20 rubber) also experienced gains of over 2% [1] - In contrast, commodities like沥青 (asphalt),低硫燃料油 (low sulfur fuel oil),生猪 (live pigs), and不锈钢 (stainless steel) faced declines of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures night market opened with most contracts declining, particularly low sulfur fuel oil (LU) and caustic soda, which fell over 1% [1] - Other commodities such as coking coal, SC crude oil, alumina, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and coke also experienced declines close to 1% [1] - In contrast, Shanghai gold and silver saw an increase of nearly 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 2, with polysilicon and the European shipping index rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1436.21 points, up 7.06 points or 0.49% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Index closed at 1983.90 points, up 9.75 points or 0.49% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The escalation of the Red Sea situation, following Israeli airstrikes and missile attacks on Israeli oil tankers, led to a near 9% increase in the European shipping index [2] - Despite the initial surge, analysts suggest that the geopolitical-driven rise in shipping may not be sustainable due to oversupply in the shipping market [2] - Oil prices have been supported by expectations of OPEC+ maintaining production levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3] Group 3: Lithium and Ethylene Glycol Market Trends - Lithium carbonate prices fell over 4% due to increased supply and reduced market sentiment, with the price index at 77,386 yuan per ton [4] - Ethylene glycol prices dropped 2.23% as domestic production increased and port inventories rose, with expectations of higher import volumes in the coming months [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts, with polysilicon rising nearly 4% and lithium carbonate dropping over 4% [2] - Polysilicon prices are driven by a leading company's announcement of an upcoming industry restructuring plan, which is expected to impact market sentiment positively [2] - SMM data indicates that the mainstream quotation for polysilicon rods has increased to 55,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, primarily due to expectations of self-discipline production limits in September [2] Group 2 - The futures market shows varied performance, with low-sulfur fuel oil and silver rising over 2%, while ethylene glycol and pure benzene fell over 2% [2] - The article notes that the short-term impact of policies on the market still needs verification, with a focus on the previous policy resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [2] - The sentiment in the spot market is influencing the futures market, indicating a connection between current market conditions and future expectations [2]