Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had mixed performance on March 25, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, and the prices of energy - related commodities were highly volatile [6][7]. - For most commodities, the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation led to large price fluctuations, and it was recommended to be cautious when participating in the market, with some suggesting temporary exit and waiting for more stable market conditions [13][16][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Performance - **Falling Commodities**: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by over 8%, fuel oil and container shipping on the European line dropped by over 6%, and ethylene glycol, PVC, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, and plastic dropped by over 4% [6]. - **Rising Commodities**: Shanghai silver rose by over 7%, platinum and palladium rose by over 5%, and lithium carbonate and butadiene rubber rose by over 4%. Stock index futures and some treasury bond futures also had varying degrees of increase [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on March 25, 2026, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2606 (5.782 billion yuan), Shanghai silver 2606 (1.804 billion yuan), and butadiene rubber 2605 (1.097 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of CSI 1000 2606 (4.134 billion yuan), crude oil 2605 (783 million yuan), and iron ore 2605 (732 million yuan) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The shortage of copper resources supported the price. The substitution of recycled copper decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand in the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The copper price rebounded due to the news of the possible cease - fire in the Middle - East, and caution was needed when chasing the rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. In February 2026, China's lithium carbonate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The export of lithium ore in Zimbabwe was affected, and the subsequent resumption of production in domestic lithium mines was a potential negative factor. The inventory decreased slightly, and the overall demand growth showed a marginal weakening trend [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory decreased significantly. The Middle - East situation was the focus, and the suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to ease the supply pressure, the situation was still uncertain, and the oil price was highly volatile [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The market was worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries due to the Middle - East situation. The supply - demand situation improved, but it was recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation [14]. - **PP**: The downstream demand for PP recovered slowly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [17][18]. - **PVC**: The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The export price increased, and the social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival. The PVC industry had the expectation of anti - involution, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][21]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coal production resumed, and the downstream started to build up inventory. The price of coking coal was affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market volatility was high. The fundamental driving force was not strong, and caution was needed in operation [22]. - **Urea**: The market trading was average, and the factory price was stable. The high production and national reserve ensured the supply, and the downstream demand was weakening but still had some procurement. The inventory continued to decrease, and the price was in high - level shock [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 24, 2026. Factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes significantly influenced the prices of various commodities. The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict in the region and the status of the Hormuz Strait, had a major impact on the energy and chemical markets, leading to price fluctuations and uncertainties [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 24, domestic futures main contracts had different performances. Carbonate lithium rose over 6%, palladium over 4%, platinum over 3%, and some other commodities like Shanghai tin, Shanghai silver, and 20 - number rubber rose over 2%. On the other hand, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil fell over 8%, fuel oil over 7%, and ethylene glycol over 6%. In the stock index futures, all major contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose, while in the bond futures, 2 - year bond futures fell 0.02%, 5 - year bond futures were flat, 10 - year bond futures rose 0.02%, and 30 - year bond futures rose 0.52%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into Shanghai silver 2606, platinum 2606, and live hogs 2605, while funds flowed out of crude oil 2605, CSI 300 2606, and Shanghai gold 2604 [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventory was significant, with a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. The market focused on the Middle - East situation. Iran's daily crude oil production was about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports were about 1.6 million barrels. The Hormuz Strait, through which about 13 million barrels of crude oil passed daily in 2025, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne crude oil flow, had been nearly shut down for many days, leading to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves and the relaxation of sanctions on some countries' oil industries alleviated short - term supply pressure, it was still less than the previous seaborne volume in the Hormuz Strait. The situation had not been truly eased, and the risk of crude oil prices rising further still existed [7][8]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% compared with the previous week, and was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall demand was still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly, and the price in Shandong continued to rise. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries, and with the situation in the Middle - East remaining tense and the Hormuz Strait still not navigable, it was expected that the asphalt price would follow the crude oil price and be strong and volatile in the near future [9]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP production rate rose by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36%, but the demand recovery was slow. On March 24, the PP enterprise production rate dropped to about 76.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire decreased to about 25.5%. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP had improved, the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the PP price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [11]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On March 24, the plastic production rate dropped to about 82.5%. As of the week of March 20, the PE downstream production rate rose by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59%, but had not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory had decreased. Although new production capacity had been put into operation in January 2026, there were no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic had improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the plastic price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [12][14]. 3.2.5. PVC - The information about PVC is the same as that of plastic, including production rate, downstream production rate, inventory, cost, supply, and price trends. It was also expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future if the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation [15]. 3.2.6. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower today. After the futures market rose yesterday, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures fluctuated. The daily production of urea was maintained at around 21 - 220,000 tons, with sufficient supply. The downstream agricultural demand was weakening, but there was still some purchasing. The compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - production - rate inventory - reduction trend. The price was supported by cost increases and terminal demand, and the inventory continued to decline. Although affected by external market sentiment, the increase in urea price was limited, and it was expected to be in a high - level shock during the conflict [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the performance and market conditions of various futures commodities as of March 20, 2026. It points out that the performance of domestic futures contracts varies, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market is significantly affected by factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic policies. Different commodities face different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors and market dynamics [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 20, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. LPG rose by over 8%, and manganese silicon rose by over 3%. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell by over 8%, and沪银 and bottle chips fell by over 6% [5]. - In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, with declines of 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.17%, and 1.27% respectively. In the bond futures, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all declined, with declines of 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.09%, and 0.42% respectively [6]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:20 on March 20, the main contracts of CSI 1000 2606, CSI 2606, and SSE 2606 had capital inflows of 4.009 billion, 1.205 billion, and 0.695 billion respectively.沪金 2604, crude oil 2605, and沪银 2606 had capital outflows of 4.449 billion, 2.329 billion, and 1.464 billion respectively [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **沪铜**: It opened low and closed high, showing a weak trend during the day. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, but the terminal demand is not optimistic. With the postponement of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar, copper prices are under pressure [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased. The import volume in February 2026 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The demand growth rate shows signs of weakening, and the macro - sentiment affects the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows that the US crude - oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined - oil inventory decreased significantly. The Middle - East situation is tense, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures have been taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of price increases still exists [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has a low - level start - up rate. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile, depending on the Middle - East situation [13][15]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate has slightly recovered, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, depending on the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The supply - demand pattern has improved. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, depending on the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [17][18]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The export situation has improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. The price is expected to be strongly volatile if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume navigation [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed high, showing a strong trend during the day. The domestic coal production has increased, and the downstream inventory has increased. The price is expected to be strong, depending on the performance in the peak season [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed low, showing a decline. The factory price is expected to weaken, and the supply is abundant. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level after a callback [22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, etc., reflecting the impact of geopolitical conflicts and economic policies on the market. 3. Summary of Each Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Market Trends - Domestic futures: As of 23:00 on March 18, domestic futures were mixed. Methanol rose over 4%, and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), bottle chips, and polypropylene rose over 2% [4]. - International futures: WTI crude oil rose 2.7% to $96.02/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 3.35% to $103.57/barrel; COMEX gold rose 0.18% to $5011.30/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.51% to $79.46/ounce; most London base metals declined, with LME lead rising 1.10% to $1926.0/ton [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Electricity consumption: From January to February, the total social electricity consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [8]. - Fiscal policy: In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, mainly in five aspects [8]. - Geopolitical events: The "Ford" aircraft carrier entered the tenth month of deployment; Houthi rebels may attack Red Sea oil tankers; the EU will restart the approval process for the US - EU trade agreement; the Iranian president confirmed the death of Ali Larijani; Trump was angry about allies' reluctance to participate in the Strait of Hormuz escort; ADP reported that private - sector employers added an average of 9000 jobs per week in four weeks [8][9][12][13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Fuel oil sales: In February, the sales volume of marine fuel oil at Fujairah Port in the UAE hit a monthly record low, and it is expected to decline further in March [15]. - Strait of Hormuz issue: The US Secretary of State urged South Korea to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Iran attacked a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE [15]. - Warehouse setting: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange set several companies as designated propylene delivery warehouses and factories [15]. - Fertilizer plant: A large - scale Russian nitrogen fertilizer plant will suspend production until May [17]. Metal Futures - Lithium ore auction: On March 17, the auction of spodumene concentrate ended, with a transaction price of RMB 15,617/ton [19]. - Company response: GEM responded to the landslide accident in Indonesia, stating that the impact on the overall operation was small [19]. - Aluminum inventory: On March 17, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.56% from the previous day, 2.66% in a week, and 8.56% in a month [19]. - Mining project: BHP submitted a new copper concentrator project, with an investment of $4.4 - 5.9 billion, aiming to produce 220,000 - 260,000 tons of copper annually [20]. Black - Series Futures - Iron ore inventory: From March 9 - 15, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 53,000 tons, still slightly higher than the average since the beginning of the year [22]. - Mine penalty: The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Anyang Yong'an Hetuo Coal Mine to suspend production for 1 day [22]. Agricultural Futures - Soybean harvest: As of March 15, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 59.2%, slower than the same period last year [25]. - Soybean supply: Market concerns about a shortage of imported soybeans in China from March to April led to increased soybean meal trading volume and decreased inventory [25]. - Sugar production: As of March 15, India's sugar production reached 26.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.5% [26]. - Biofuel: Trump invited farmers and biofuel producers to a "farm celebration"; the US EPA submitted biofuel blending quota drafts to the White House [26]. - Palm oil export: The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 was 443,812 tons, a 12.68% increase from the same period last month [27]. Financial Market Stock Market - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to 4049.91 points, with over 4500 stocks falling, and the market turnover was 2.22 trillion yuan [29]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% to 25,868.54 points; southbound funds sold over HK$11 billion [30]. - Fund approval: The CSRC approved 15 new hard - tech theme funds [30]. - IPO rumor: The rumor that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will restrict red - chip companies in IPO is untrue [31]. - Insurance investment: Insurance funds participated in the cornerstone investment of 10 Hong Kong IPO companies, with a total subscription of about HK$1.558 billion [31]. - Korean investment: Korean investors have been net buyers of A - shares in emerging sectors such as semiconductors [31]. - International stocks: US stocks rose slightly; European stocks rose across the board; most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Japanese stock market [38][39]. Industry News - Beidou system: The Beidou satellite navigation system will be upgraded in orbit [32]. - Real estate: The property market in core cities showed a "spring boom" [33]. - Electricity consumption: From January to February, the social electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with high growth in charging and Internet data services [33]. - AI regulation: Beijing's Cyberspace Administration launched an AI rectification campaign [33]. Overseas News - US official resignation: The director of the US National Counterterrorism Center resigned due to the Iran war [34]. - Iran situation: Iran's regime is still stable but more hard - line [34]. - Military assistance: Ukrainian experts will assist Gulf countries in drone defense [34]. - Interest rate decisions: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the Central Bank of Indonesia kept interest rates unchanged [36][37]. - Trade agreement: The EU will restart the approval process for the US - EU trade agreement [37]. Commodity Market - Oil prices: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [41]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose and COMEX silver fell due to multiple factors [41]. - Base metals: Most London base metals declined [41]. - Oil sanctions: The US may further relax sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry [42]. - Port suspension: Fujairah Port in the UAE suspended oil loading [42]. Bond Market - Chinese bonds: The inter - bank bond market recovered, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined [44]. - US bonds: The yields of US bonds were mixed [44]. Foreign Exchange Market - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [45]. - Dollar index: The dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [45]. Upcoming Events - Central bank operations: The central bank has 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase due; the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, and the Central Bank of Brazil will announce interest rate decisions [47]. - Conferences: The 2026 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Conference press conference will be held; the NVIDIA GTC Conference will take place [47]. - New stock listing: Beixinchuangxing will be officially listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange [47]. - Earnings reports: Tencent Holdings, Geely Auto, Chery Automobile, Huazhu Group, and Micron Technology will release earnings reports [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on March 12, 2026, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, low-sulfur fuel oil, and SC crude oil had significant increases, while others like apples, silver, and palladium declined. The market was affected by various factors including the Middle East situation, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [6][7]. - Different commodities had different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper was affected by supply - demand and the Middle East situation, while crude oil was highly influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, the Iran - related conflict, and inventory data [9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - Supply: March production is expected to reach a record high with a month - on - month increase of about 52,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [9]. - Demand: Downstream demand for copper is increasing after the holiday, but the inventory is still accumulating, though at a slower pace. The copper cable industry's February opening rate was 55.81%, down 14.29 percentage points month - on - month but up 9.06 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Price: Due to the Middle East situation and inflation, copper prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Price: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply: March production is expected to be 106,700 tons, up 29.4% month - on - month, and the start - up rate has increased by nearly 2% this week [11]. - Demand: Overall demand is weakening, and exports are postponed. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate of decrease is narrowing [11]. - Price: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory has decreased [12]. - Geopolitical: The conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, has a significant impact on the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz has been affected, leading to production cuts in some Middle Eastern countries [12][13]. - Price: EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months. It is recommended to observe the Middle East situation carefully [13]. Asphalt - Supply: The opening rate last week was 23.3%, up 1.9 percentage points month - on - month but 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in March is 2.187 million tons, up 13.0% month - on - month but down 1.9% year - on - year [14]. - Demand: Downstream industries' opening rates are rising, and the shipment volume has increased by 19.86% to 156,300 tons [14]. - Price: It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the raw material shortage of domestic refineries [14]. PP - Supply: As of March 6, the downstream opening rate was 45.87%, up 9.13 percentage points week - on - week. The enterprise opening rate on March 12 was about 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard wire drawing decreased to about 25.5% [16]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories' demand has increased, and the price of BOPP film has risen [16]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [16]. Plastic - Supply: On March 12, the opening rate decreased to about 88%. As of March 6, the PE downstream opening rate was 28.62%, up 10.4 percentage points week - on - week. New production capacity has been put into operation, and there are no new plans in the first quarter [17]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand has increased, and the prices of agricultural films in some regions have risen [17]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [18]. PVC - Supply: The opening rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%. The downstream average opening rate increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84% [19]. - Demand: Exports have improved, but the social inventory is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time [19]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [19]. Coking Coal - Supply: The mine opening rate has reached 87.16%, up 4.84% week - on - week. The production and opening rate are higher than the same period [20]. - Demand: Affected by the overseas conflict, the downstream purchasing sentiment has increased, and the inventory has decreased significantly [20][21]. - Price: The price rebound is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices. After the sentiment is digested, there is an expectation of a return to the fundamental level [21]. Urea - Supply: The supply is stable and strong, with high daily production and state - reserve release. The market has abundant goods, and short - term stops and restarts are frequent, with the daily production basically within 230,000 tons [22]. - Demand: The downstream industrial demand is accelerating, and the inventory has decreased by 12.79%. The production of compound fertilizers is in the peak season [22]. - Price: After the cautious sentiment fades, there may be a correction [22].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides an analysis of various futures commodities on February 25, 2026, including their market performance, fundamental factors, and price trends [4][5] Group 2: Market Performance - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results. Shanghai tin and platinum rose over 7%, Shanghai silver and palladium rose over 4%, and lithium carbonate rose over 3%. The container shipping index (European line) fell over 4%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell over 1% [4] - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) up 0.91%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) up 0.61%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) up 1.73%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) up 1.45%. Treasury bond futures generally fell, with the 2-year Treasury bond futures (TS) down 0.06%, the 5-year Treasury bond futures (TF) down 0.10%, the 10-year Treasury bond futures (T) down 0.13%, and the 30-year Treasury bond futures (TL) down 0.47% [5] Group 3: Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, showing strength. The US has entered the "executable options stage" in the Iran issue. Fundamentally, upstream smelting loads were normal during the holiday, and copper supply will remain stable at a high level. In February, SMM China's electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 3.58 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year-on-year. The downstream market has low trading activity, and copper inventories have increased significantly. The copper price is likely to rise due to tight supply and support from the non-ferrous metals sector, but high prices and inventories may limit the upside [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed higher, with a slight decline at the end of the session, rising over 3% overall. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 161,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 158,200 yuan/ton, both up 9,750 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Due to seasonal and holiday production cuts, SMM expects February production to be 81,900 tons, a 16% decrease month-on-month. The downstream battery industry maintains a relatively high production rhythm, and the short-term supply of lithium carbonate is tight. The "export rush" caused by the tariff policy window and positive price forecasts from UBS have stimulated the market. However, after the rapid price increase, there is a risk of high-level corrections [8][10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ members will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. US crude and refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and gasoline and diesel consumption increased. The winter storm in the US may stimulate heating demand, alleviating concerns about oversupply. The Iran-US negotiations are uncertain, and the US may use force if necessary. Iran will resume negotiations in Geneva. India may increase oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the negotiation results [11][13] Asphalt - Before the Spring Festival, the asphalt production rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 21.7%, lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons month-on-month and 135,000 tons year-on-year. During the Spring Festival, downstream industries were mostly shut down, and the shipping volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate is at a low level in recent years. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is limited, and the cost may be affected. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14] PP - As of the week of February 20, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 11.78 percentage points to 30%. On February 25, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, and the production ratio of standard-grade drawstring decreased to around 27%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and then decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons. The cost is affected by the Iran situation and the decrease in US oil inventories. The PP supply and demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is recommended to reduce the L-PP spread [15][16] Plastic - On February 25, the plastic operating rate remained at around 93%. As of the week of February 13, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories increased and then decreased, similar to previous years. The cost is affected by the Iran situation and the decrease in US oil inventories. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply and demand pattern has limited improvement. It is recommended to reduce the L-PP spread [17] PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC operating rate increased to 80.09%. During the Spring Festival, downstream industries were mostly shut down. Export orders decreased after the price increase, but the sales pressure is not high. Social inventories increased during the Spring Festival and are still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the demand for PVC is weak in the short term. However, there are expectations for policies and maintenance after the Spring Festival. PVC is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher, rising over 2%. Some steel enterprises in North China have received notices of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions. The supply of imported coal from Mongolia is gradually recovering, while domestic mines are still on holiday. The iron water output has increased, but the demand for raw materials may weaken. The coking coal price is supported by the shortage of spot and the increase in overseas prices, but there is a risk of negative feedback [20] Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling nearly 1%. During the spring plowing season, agricultural demand supports the factory price. The upstream factory production is stable, and there are no large-scale long-term maintenance plans. The inventory has increased due to the holiday, but the agricultural demand will gradually reduce the inventory. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the impact of melamine is relatively small. The urea price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [21][22]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on February 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Shanghai Silver rose over 12%, Lithium Carbonate rose over 10%, Container Shipping European Line and SC Crude Oil rose over 6%, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Platinum rose over 5%, and Palladium and Butadiene Rubber rose over 4%. On the downside, Polysilicon fell over 4%, and Coke and Live Pigs fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [4][5]. 2. Core Views - The overall futures market showed a pattern of more rises than falls, and different varieties were affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, with different short-term trends [4][5]. 3. Variety Analysis Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved high, with a slight increase. The US customs policy changed, and the supply and demand of copper showed a marginal improvement expectation. With the downstream recovery, copper demand is expected to increase, and the short-term copper price is mainly volatile and strong [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and moved high, with a significant increase. Affected by seasonal and holiday factors, the supply was tight in the short term. The policy window period and positive price predictions stimulated the market, and the short-term trend was strong [8][9]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ members will maintain the production plan, US oil inventories decreased, and the winter storm may stimulate demand. The Iran - US negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short-term crude oil price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply and demand were weak, and the开工 rate and production were at a low level. The Venezuelan crude oil supply was restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to take a reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, the企业开工率 was at a low - to - neutral level, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. It is recommended to continue to narrow the L - PP spread [13][14]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, the downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. Continue to narrow the L - PP spread [15]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price decreased, the PVC开工率 was at a neutral level, the inventory was high, and the real - time demand was weak. However, there are policy and maintenance expectations, and the price is expected to be volatile [16][17]. Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved low, with a decline. The import coal supply recovered, the domestic mine开工率 was low, and the downstream demand lacked incremental support. The short - term price is under pressure [18]. Urea - The urea futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price rose. The Indian tender supported the market sentiment. With the upcoming spring plowing season, the price is expected to be stable and strong, but the increase may be limited [19][20].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw most of the main contracts open higher on February 24, with notable increases in various commodities [1] - Silver futures rose nearly 13%, while low-sulfur fuel oil and SC crude oil increased by nearly 5% [1] - Aluminum oxide prices increased by over 3%, and both fuel oil and asphalt saw gains exceeding 2% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, caustic soda prices fell by over 2%, while tin, iron ore, and coke experienced declines of more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the domestic futures market saw a majority of contracts rise on the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, with notable increases in silver and low-sulfur fuel oil [3][7]. - Silver futures (沪银) increased by nearly 13%, indicating strong demand and market confidence [3][7]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and SC crude oil both rose by nearly 5%, reflecting positive trends in energy commodities [3][7]. Group 2 - Aluminum oxide (氧化铝) futures rose over 3%, suggesting a potential recovery in the aluminum sector [3][7]. - Other commodities such as fuel oil and asphalt also saw increases of over 2%, indicating a broad-based rally in the market [3][7]. - On the downside, caustic soda (烧碱) fell by over 2%, while tin (沪锡), iron ore, and coke all experienced declines of over 1%, pointing to some weakness in these sectors [3][7].

Market Overview - On February 12, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance with lithium carbonate rising over 4% and nickel increasing over 2% [7][8] - Other commodities such as fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and soybean also saw gains of over 1% [7][8] - Conversely, platinum, palladium, and butadiene rubber experienced declines of over 1%, while glass, palm oil, and coke fell nearly 1% [7][8] Specific Commodity Performance - Lithium carbonate (contract 2605 M) reached a price of 150,000 with a rise of 4.07% [8] - Nickel (contract 2603 M) was priced at 140,310, reflecting a 2.30% increase [8] - Fuel oil (contract 2605 M) showed a gain of 1.51%, reaching 2,900 [8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (contract 2604 M) increased by 1.26%, priced at 3,376 [8] - In contrast, glass (contract 2605 M) fell by 0.84%, priced at 1,061 [8] - Coke (contract 2605 M) decreased by 0.54%, with a price of 1,660 [8]