12月23日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约高位震荡挫，最高上探至2493.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主力合约 报2480.00元，涨幅2.02%。 燃料油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 南华期货 低硫基本面有所好转，裂解整体驱动向上 西南期货 燃料油屡创年内新低，反弹空间较大 南华期货：低硫基本面有所好转，裂解整体驱动向上 近期马来西亚Rapid炼厂部分装置检修结束，低硫供应缩量，丹格特检修推迟，尼日利亚出口依然低 迷，科威特阿祖儿炼厂火灾后尚未检修结束，供应缩量，给低硫带来一定提振，需求端中规中矩，现货 市场货源尚且充足，中国配额充足，新配额即将下放，进口有所下滑，整体看，低硫基本面有所好转， 裂解整体驱动向上。 西南期货：燃料油屡创年内新低，反弹空间较大 亚洲现货燃料油市场交易动力整体疲软，但岸上库存有所缓解。根据数据，新加坡的残渣燃料库存在连 续三周上涨后有所下降，但库存水平仍远高于平均水平。新加坡180-cst燃料油评估价每吨342.97美元； 380-cst燃料油评估价每吨339.53美元；含硫量0.5%的船舶燃料油每吨419.23美元。行情研判：亚洲燃料 油现货供 ...

燃料油期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 瑞达期货 燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 12月19日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至2380.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主 力合约报2383.00元，跌幅2.22%。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价反复震荡 国投安信期货 燃料油受成本端影响同步波动 近期俄乌、美委地缘变动频繁，燃料油受成本端影响同步波动。从基本面看，美国对委内瑞拉持续施压 已对近期高硫重质原料发运形成实际影响，预计后续到港可能受阻，将为市场提供阶段性支撑，但其持 续性仍需观察局势演变。不过新加坡及中东库存边际上升，叠加物流阻滞导致的浮舱累积，高库存背景 下中期供应压力依然存在。低硫方面，国内12月低硫配额剩余有限，产量预计收缩，或推升进口需求， 年末船燃旺季与阿祖尔炼厂复产再度推迟可能带来短期支撑，但在整体供应充裕的格局下，其中期走势 预计仍将维持偏弱。 瑞达期货（002961）：燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 美委局势紧张，国际油价上涨，对化工品有一定提振。供应方面，主营炼厂产能利用率持稳，成品油独 立炼厂负荷下降，因近期成交清淡，多数炼 ...

12月15日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，燃料油期货主力合约开盘报2395.00元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至收盘，燃料油主力最高触及2449.00元，下方探低2390.00元，涨幅达1.50%。 新加坡企业发展局(ESG)：截至12月10日当周，新加坡燃料油库存上涨50.3万桶，达到13周高点2606.2 万桶。 12月11日，上期所低硫燃料油仓库期货仓单40吨，环比上个交易日持平；燃料油期货仓单2060吨，环比 上个交易日减少4040吨。 大越期货分析称，尽管因为运费高企导致东西方套利经济不可行，预计新加坡12月来自西方市场的套利 到货量将减少。但11月库存大幅累积之后，亚洲低硫燃料油市场在整个12月以及1月仍将保持供应非常 充足的局面，且目前下游船用燃料油需求看起来缺乏支撑力，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构持续走弱。亚洲 高硫燃料油市场也面临供应充足的局面，最近几周来自中东的供应量非常可观，尽管下游船用加注活动 相对稳定。此外，高硫燃料油炼油利润率减弱，可能会在未来几个月提振亚洲炼油厂对高硫燃料油原料 的需求，但中国新公布的2026年原油进口配额可能会限制该国的原料需求。原油短期预计继续低位震荡 运行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2672.00 yuan, closing at 2690.00 yuan, down 1.18% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures indicates a weak operation for fuel oil due to aggressive selling pressure in the spot market, leading to a widening of the price difference for low-sulfur fuel oil [2] - Ruida Futures expects fuel oil to maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term, influenced by weak global economic conditions and excess crude oil supply [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures anticipates an expansion in the price difference between high and low sulfur fuel oils, driven by unexpected production halts and adjustments in shipping schedules [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to receive some support in the coming weeks due to tightening supply from recent economic shifts, despite a generally weak market [2] - Domestic independent refineries are resuming operations, leading to a slight increase in capacity utilization, while major refineries are reducing output, impacting overall supply dynamics [3] - The overall supply of low-sulfur fuel oil remains ample in Asia, with significant shipments planned, limiting upward price momentum [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a positive trend, with fuel oil futures experiencing a price increase of 3.95% during the trading session [1] - In August, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 489,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23.88% but a year-on-year increase of 38.77% [1] - The export volume of bonded marine fuel oil in China for August was 1,643,200 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13% and a year-on-year increase of 6.02% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories have supported oil prices, enhancing cost support for petrochemical products [2] - Domestic refining capacity utilization has decreased due to maintenance at a key refinery, impacting supply [2] - Pre-holiday demand for downstream processing and marine fuel has increased, leading to a rise in both transaction volume and prices [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The fuel oil market is experiencing mixed signals with supply and demand dynamics affecting prices, while geopolitical events continue to influence export levels and inventory changes [1][2]. Market Data - As of August 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported low sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts at 16,080 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; total fuel oil futures receipts stood at 80,710 tons, also unchanged [1]. - The Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG) indicated that fuel oil inventories in Singapore decreased by 1.674 million barrels to 24.645 million barrels, marking a three-week low [1]. - Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia's oil product exports have risen, leading to fuel oil shipments reaching their highest levels since the onset of the conflict [1]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the overall supply-demand balance is weak, and cost support is diminishing, leading to limited improvement in the fuel oil market. The main contract for LU saw a price increase of 1.04%, but the cost side remains under pressure, suggesting a weak oscillation in the short term [2]. - Southwest Futures noted signs of improvement in the fuel oil market; however, the oversupply in Singapore continues to exert downward pressure on prices. Their strategy involves trading the high-low sulfur price spread for the main fuel oil contract [2].