本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 苯乙烯主要观点：原油端，受伊以冲突影响延续上涨趋势；周内美国介入与否尚存不确定性，届时不排除局势进一步升级，油价短期波动或剧烈。纯苯端，因原油高位支撑， 纯苯估值比价偏低向上存弹性。基本面看国内纯苯供需双增，下游苯乙烯复产支撑需求但非苯乙烯下游利润堪忧，进口方面船期后续到港有增多，港口库存仍表现出去化不畅的供 需矛盾，价格上方空间或因此受限。苯乙烯在复产下供增需减，上游检修装置回归叠加利润起色刺激意愿，供应压力增大；下游3S在此轮事件中价格跟涨乏力利润承压，叠加国补 和关税影响终端需求并不过分乐观。苯乙烯供需边际或逐步转弱，关注后续库存止降累库节点。短期地缘扰动仍是主要定价因素，原油波动剧烈建议谨慎参与。中期结合苯乙烯基 本面看高价仍存压力，可关注原油共振的高空机会。 期货策略建议：单边暂观望，中期关注原油共振的高空机会 期权策略建议：暂观望 01 纯苯 壹 2025年苯乙烯、纯苯链投产计划 苯乙烯周报 E B ：原油扰动剧烈 ， 关注苯乙烯边际转弱和累库时点 广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 何一华 李未来 北京报道 本轮是2025年第十二次调价，也迎来2025年的第五次上调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈 现"五涨五跌两搁浅"的格局。调价过后，今年以来成品油价格总体呈现下跌趋势，国内汽、柴油价格较 年初分别下跌330元/吨和315元/吨。 本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.9—7.1元/升，92号汽油零售限价在7.3—7.4元/升。此次调价也 使私家车主和物流企业的用油成本增加。 根据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50L的普通私家车计算，这次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将多花10元左 右；按市区百公里耗油7L—8L的车型，平均每行驶一百公里费用增加1.5元左右。而对满载50吨的大型 物流运输车辆而言平均每行驶一百公里，燃油费用增加8.8元左右。 继上一轮油价微涨后，国内成品油价格又迎来新一轮上调。 6月17日下午，国家发改委发布了新一轮油价调整公告，自2025年6月17日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每 吨分别上涨260元和255元。需要指出的是，本轮油价调整创出2025年以来第二大涨幅，仅次于1月16 日，彼时汽柴油价格每吨分别上调34 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with a rise of over 11% last week [3] - WTI crude oil prices surged approximately 13% during the last trading session, while Brent crude oil rose by 11.67% [3] - Morgan Stanley maintains its oil price forecast at around $60 per barrel but warns that geopolitical tensions could severely impact oil supply, potentially driving prices up to $120-130 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors are heavily buying oil futures due to concerns over the impact of the current conflict on oil supply, leading to a rapid increase in oil prices [3] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transport route, could result in oil prices reaching triple digits [3] - The next domestic oil price adjustment window is set for June 17, with expected increases of 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price hikes of 0.18-0.20 yuan per liter [4]

Group 1 - The oil sector experienced significant gains on June 16, with companies like Keli Co. rising approximately 25% and hitting new highs, while Tongyuan Petroleum surged over 16% [1] - The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, including missile strikes and the withdrawal from nuclear negotiations, has heightened market sentiment, leading to a spike in WTI crude oil prices, which reached $77 per barrel [1] - OPEC's monthly report indicated that Iran's crude oil exports are between 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day, and any disruption in these exports could impact global supply [1] Group 2 - Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are driving oil prices significantly higher, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [2] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is crucial, as the group's production strategy may change in response to high oil prices [2] - Brent crude futures are projected to fluctuate between $70 and $100 per barrel, depending on demand performance and OPEC+ production levels [2]

Group 1 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the prospects of breakthroughs in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., stating that no formal proposals have been received, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil rose over 1% to above $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to above $62, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical news [1][3] - The International Energy Agency reiterated that global production growth is expected to exceed demand growth this year and next, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] Group 2 - Westpac Banking Corp's Robert Rennie indicated that a potential agreement could increase Iranian exports by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, which is not significant, maintaining a price range of $60 to $65 for Brent crude in the coming weeks [2] - Israeli attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have raised concerns about broader regional conflicts, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices have increased for the second consecutive week due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite a decline of over 10% this year due to trade uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases [2]