光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价窄幅震荡，其中 WTI 11 月合约收盘下跌 0.01 美元至 | | | | 64.98 美元/桶，跌幅 0.02%。布伦特 12 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 | | | | 0.34 美元至 68.8 美元/桶，涨幅 0.5%。SC2511 以 491.1 元/桶收 | | | | 盘，上涨 2.2 元/桶，涨幅为 0.45%。乌克兰袭击了位于黑海沿岸 | | | | 的俄罗斯新罗西斯克港和图阿普谢港。乌方消息人士称，袭击行 | | | | 动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端 | | | | 设备瘫痪，相关设施每日出口原油约 200 万桶。此外，乌方的无 | | | | 人机还袭击了俄大型石油装载码头图阿普谢港。美国总统特朗普 | | | 原油 | 称，他现在认为乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下，有望"赢回全部乌 | 震荡 | | | 克兰，恢复原状"。当天，特朗普还在讲话中将俄罗斯称为"纸 | | | | 老虎"， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong oil stocks collectively rose, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, particularly after Trump's comments on potential sanctions against Russian oil buyers [1] - Chinese oil companies saw significant stock price increases, with China Petroleum rising by 2%, and other companies like Sinopec, CNOOC, and China Oilfield Services also experiencing gains of over 1% [2] - Brent crude oil prices reached a one-month high, closing at $72.51 per barrel, with a daily increase of 3.5% and a cumulative rise of nearly 6% over the past two days [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the potential for supply risks will increase due to the shortening of the deadline for new U.S. sanctions on Russia, alongside the ongoing traditional fuel consumption peak in the U.S. [1] - There is an expectation of a higher probability for the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments to be upward, influenced by the easing of tariff concerns following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are rising due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and short - term volatility may be severe. Pure benzene prices have upward potential due to high - level support from crude oil, but the supply - demand contradiction of sluggish destocking in ports may limit the upside. Styrene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and its supply - demand may gradually weaken. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the main pricing factors, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. In the medium term, there is pressure on high prices, and high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil can be watched [4]. - Futures strategy: Stay on the sidelines for the time being and watch for high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil in the medium term. Options strategy: Stay on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: There are multiple pure benzene, pure benzene downstream (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream production plans in different regions and enterprises in 2025, with specific production capacity and production time [6]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many pure benzene production enterprises have device maintenance plans from May to July 2025, with planned new production capacity of 133 million tons/year and downstream new production capacity of about 40 million tons/year; planned shutdown involves production capacity of 446 million tons/year, and downstream shutdown production capacity is about 589 million tons/year. Overall, supply will decrease by 23.9 million tons and demand will decrease by 34.1 million tons, showing inventory accumulation [8][9]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Profits**: Toluene disproportionation profit is low, and there are various price difference data of cracking and related products over the years [15]. - **Pure Benzene Price**: There are price data of East China pure benzene, far - month price, international quotes, and price difference data over the years. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China remain at a high level, and domestic production and imports lead to continuous inventory accumulation [20][26][31]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The weighted operating rate has increased with the resumption of styrene production. Styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: There are price and price difference data of styrene spot and futures over the years [53]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit data are provided. China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70]. - **Styrene Inventory**: Port inventory has decreased again, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [71]. - **Styrene Downstream**: High production capacity growth rate intensifies competition, and high production supports styrene demand. However, prices follow energy fluctuations, and profits are under pressure. High production leads to high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. Terminal exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy stimulation [76][81][91].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 何一华 李未来 北京报道 本轮是2025年第十二次调价，也迎来2025年的第五次上调。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈 现"五涨五跌两搁浅"的格局。调价过后，今年以来成品油价格总体呈现下跌趋势，国内汽、柴油价格较 年初分别下跌330元/吨和315元/吨。 本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.9—7.1元/升，92号汽油零售限价在7.3—7.4元/升。此次调价也 使私家车主和物流企业的用油成本增加。 根据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50L的普通私家车计算，这次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将多花10元左 右；按市区百公里耗油7L—8L的车型，平均每行驶一百公里费用增加1.5元左右。而对满载50吨的大型 物流运输车辆而言平均每行驶一百公里，燃油费用增加8.8元左右。 继上一轮油价微涨后，国内成品油价格又迎来新一轮上调。 6月17日下午，国家发改委发布了新一轮油价调整公告，自2025年6月17日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每 吨分别上涨260元和255元。需要指出的是，本轮油价调整创出2025年以来第二大涨幅，仅次于1月16 日，彼时汽柴油价格每吨分别上调34 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with a rise of over 11% last week [3] - WTI crude oil prices surged approximately 13% during the last trading session, while Brent crude oil rose by 11.67% [3] - Morgan Stanley maintains its oil price forecast at around $60 per barrel but warns that geopolitical tensions could severely impact oil supply, potentially driving prices up to $120-130 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Investors are heavily buying oil futures due to concerns over the impact of the current conflict on oil supply, leading to a rapid increase in oil prices [3] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transport route, could result in oil prices reaching triple digits [3] - The next domestic oil price adjustment window is set for June 17, with expected increases of 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price hikes of 0.18-0.20 yuan per liter [4]

美、布两油短线小幅上升，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称以军已掌控德黑兰空域，并将采取行动。 ...

Group 1 - The oil sector experienced significant gains on June 16, with companies like Keli Co. rising approximately 25% and hitting new highs, while Tongyuan Petroleum surged over 16% [1] - The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, including missile strikes and the withdrawal from nuclear negotiations, has heightened market sentiment, leading to a spike in WTI crude oil prices, which reached $77 per barrel [1] - OPEC's monthly report indicated that Iran's crude oil exports are between 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day, and any disruption in these exports could impact global supply [1] Group 2 - Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are driving oil prices significantly higher, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [2] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is crucial, as the group's production strategy may change in response to high oil prices [2] - Brent crude futures are projected to fluctuate between $70 and $100 per barrel, depending on demand performance and OPEC+ production levels [2]

Group 1 - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi downplayed the prospects of breakthroughs in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., stating that no formal proposals have been received, leading to an increase in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil rose over 1% to above $65, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to above $62, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical news [1][3] - The International Energy Agency reiterated that global production growth is expected to exceed demand growth this year and next, potentially leading to oversupply in the market [1] Group 2 - Westpac Banking Corp's Robert Rennie indicated that a potential agreement could increase Iranian exports by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, which is not significant, maintaining a price range of $60 to $65 for Brent crude in the coming weeks [2] - Israeli attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have raised concerns about broader regional conflicts, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - Oil prices have increased for the second consecutive week due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, despite a decline of over 10% this year due to trade uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases [2]