我特意整理了全国各省市的92号汽油价格，北京6.70，上海6.67，广州6.73，成都6.81，西安6.60，差别还挺大，新疆最低才6.53，海南倒是贵得离谱，直接 7.82，价差都快赶上一升油钱了，估计是地方税费不一样。 92号汽油的价格略有差异，上海的售价为6.67元/升，江苏、浙江、福建以及台州、泰州和龙岩的油价均为6.68元/升。 今天是1月6日，星期二， 今天路过加油站，瞅了瞅92号汽油，还是6块7左右，跟上周没差，我本来想等降价再加，结果手机一刷，说今天晚上12点油价可能要涨，之前12月那波"三 连降"，刚让我们省了点钱，这还没捂热，又要涨了。 查了查消息，2025年最后一次调价是12月22日，汽柴油每吨分别降了170和165元，那时候92号汽油直接掉进"6元时代"，我加满一箱比上个月便宜了差不多7 块钱，那会儿挺爽的，感觉加油像捡便宜，可谁能想到，才过半个月，风向就要变了。 这回调价窗口是1月6日24时，今天晚上零点，按现在数据看，预计涨幅已经到50元/吨，刚好踩上调价红线，折下来每升大概贵4到5分钱，听起来不多，对 我这种天天开网约车的人来说，一个月多跑几千公里，算下来也得多个十几块油钱。 布 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 腰油月报系列 2025-12 原油月报:油价大幅波动,地缘为主要锚 2025 年 12月 31 日 摘要 交易咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1294 号 研究所 能源化工组 分析师承诺: 本人以動題的职业态度,因立,客观地出 具本假合。本报告所采用的数据和信息的 来自市场公开信息。本人不保证请等信息 的准确性无尘悬挂。分析逻辑基于作者的 职业理解,清晰准确地反映了作者的研究 观点,结论不变任何第三方的投意成影 响。特此声明。 � ● 行情回顾:裁至12月31日,WTI原油期货主力价格报收57.42美元 /桶,月跌幅为1.93%;Brent原油期货主力价格报收60.85美元/桶, 月跌幅3.72%:INE原油期货主力价格报收436.5元/桶,月跌幅 3. 19%。 ● 全球原油供应仍保持严重过制:根据本月发布的各方数据显示, 美国原油产量持续保持增长,成品油需求疲軟导致库存持续累库, 两本月发布的EIA月报更是上调了10月和11月过制量至400万桶/ 日以上:同时因地续扰动导致原油海上贸易流受阻,海上运输原 油和浮仓量持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

燃料油期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 瑞达期货 燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 12月19日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至2380.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主 力合约报2383.00元，跌幅2.22%。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价反复震荡 国投安信期货 燃料油受成本端影响同步波动 近期俄乌、美委地缘变动频繁，燃料油受成本端影响同步波动。从基本面看，美国对委内瑞拉持续施压 已对近期高硫重质原料发运形成实际影响，预计后续到港可能受阻，将为市场提供阶段性支撑，但其持 续性仍需观察局势演变。不过新加坡及中东库存边际上升，叠加物流阻滞导致的浮舱累积，高库存背景 下中期供应压力依然存在。低硫方面，国内12月低硫配额剩余有限，产量预计收缩，或推升进口需求， 年末船燃旺季与阿祖尔炼厂复产再度推迟可能带来短期支撑，但在整体供应充裕的格局下，其中期走势 预计仍将维持偏弱。 瑞达期货（002961）：燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 美委局势紧张，国际油价上涨，对化工品有一定提振。供应方面，主营炼厂产能利用率持稳，成品油独 立炼厂负荷下降，因近期成交清淡，多数炼 ...

需求方面，2026年预期增长90万桶/日，节奏受欧美降息周期影响预计前低后高。 来源：中国能源网 目前，国际原油市场面临多重挑战：一是尽管悲观情绪弥漫，全球石油需求仍实现稳健增长，其中汽油 需求更是超预期增长；二是2025年原油供应增量远超需求增量，其中大半来自非欧佩克供应商，以深海 资源项目与页岩油为主，供应过剩量为疫情后最高水平；三是库存结构分化，运距拉长、制裁政策不确 定性导致原油水上库存飙升至2020年以来的最高水平，陆上库存压力延迟，前三季度经合组织国家石油 库存维持5年均值以下；四是俄罗斯成为市场关注重点，2025年俄罗斯油品实际出口中，成品油下滑影 响远大于原油，叠加欧美炼能淘汰，三季度汽柴油裂解面临结构性短缺，裂解大幅上涨。 展望2026年，原油市场继续面对较大供应过剩压力，预计价格中枢下移，节奏前低后高。近年来，激荡 的宏观事件对油品市场冲击不断加大，2026年原油市场仍将受俄乌和谈进程、欧美对俄罗斯和伊朗制裁 政策、特朗普政府"后关税战"宏观政策、中东局势变化等因素影响，交易不确定性较高。国内SC原油 基本面预期围绕中东原油现货、运费、国内原油供需因素展开，2026年内外价差维持前高后低节 ...

信达期货指出，俄乌和平谈判持续推进但进程缓慢，虽然整体氛围趋向降温，但双方最近的高级别会晤 未能成功达成协议。同时，美国对委内瑞拉发出军事威胁信号，但市场已审美疲劳，需事件实质落地方 能驱动价格。整体地缘影响呈中性偏空，对油价的支撑作用正在弱化。 光大证券发布研报称，面对新一轮油价波动周期，"三桶油"深化增储上产，加强成本管控，以自身发展 的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性，在油价下行期的业绩韧性凸显。"三桶油"有望实现穿越油价周期的 长期成长，长期投资价值凸显。 智通财经APP获悉，石油股集体走低，截至发稿，中石油(00857)跌2.88%，报8.43港元；中石化(00386) 跌2.21%，报4.42港元；中海油服(02883)跌2.18%，报7.19港元；中海油(00883)跌1.95%，报21.16港元。 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices have experienced a significant reversal after four consecutive months of decline, with an expected increase of 0.12 yuan per liter starting November 10 [1][3][5] - The recent surge in international oil prices, particularly WTI reaching $60.98 per barrel and Brent at $65.07 per barrel, has contributed to the anticipated domestic price hike [3][5] Price Trends - After a series of price drops totaling over 0.50 yuan per liter, 92 gasoline prices fell to around 6.5 yuan per liter, providing relief to consumers [1][3] - The current expected increase of 140 yuan per ton translates to an additional cost of approximately 6 yuan for a full tank of gas [4][5] Regional Price Variations - Gasoline prices vary across different regions, with 92 gasoline prices ranging from 6.63 yuan per liter in Xinjiang to 7.95 yuan per liter in Hainan [4][6] - The lowest recorded price for 92 gasoline was 6.3 yuan per liter in Guangdong, compared to a high of 7.2 yuan per liter earlier in the year [3][4] Economic Implications - Rising oil prices are likely to impact logistics and consumer goods prices, potentially leading to increased costs for services like delivery and food [4][5] - The volatility in oil prices reflects broader issues in the energy market, raising concerns among consumers about the stability of fuel costs [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of oil prices, but they have not broken through the oscillation range. Before the long - holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid extreme fluctuations in the external market [1]. - The supply and demand of different products have different impacts on prices. For example, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, which will put pressure on the market; the supply of asphalt is high, and the upward space of prices may be affected; the supply of polyolefins is stable, and demand is improving marginally; the supply of PVC is high, and domestic demand recovers slowly [3][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.01 to $64.98/barrel, Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.34 to $68.8/barrel, and SC2511 closed up 2.2 yuan to 491.1 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical events such as Ukraine's attack on Russian ports and Trump's remarks have increased market volatility. BP predicts that global oil demand will continue to grow before 2030. The oil price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 rose 1.3%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 rose 1.56%. In August 2025, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a new high this year. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited upside [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 1.3%. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but the high supply in October may limit price increases. The price is expected to remain stable, and the actual demand needs attention [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.12%, EG2601 rose 0.28%, and PX futures rose 1.09%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The polyester load decreased slightly. The prices of the polyester chain followed the cost increase, but there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for TA and EG, with pressure on the upside [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 50 yuan, NR fell 35 yuan, and BR rose 25 yuan. The US - EU trade agreement and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the impact of typhoons on production areas, affect the market. The demand for downstream tires is stable, and the export support weakens. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to position risks during the holiday [5][6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2252 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas supply is affected by device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The methanol price is expected to enter a stage - bottom, and the basis will strengthen. A strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins can be considered [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins shows different trends. The supply will remain high, and the demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The overall situation is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in different regions shows different trends. The domestic real - estate construction has a slow recovery, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies. The supply is high, and the total inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 25 - 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Iraq's Kurdish region will resume exporting oil to Turkey from this Saturday, with an expected export volume of about 230,000 barrels per day [13]. - Ukraine attacked Russian ports on the Black Sea coast, paralyzing oil shipping facilities near the Novorossiysk port, with a daily export volume of about 2 million barrels of crude oil [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and analyzes the basis changes over time [31][32][35]. - **4.3 Inter - contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc., analyzing the spread changes between different contracts [45][46][47]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [60][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [70][72][74]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional responsibilities [76][77][78].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong oil stocks collectively rose, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, particularly after Trump's comments on potential sanctions against Russian oil buyers [1] - Chinese oil companies saw significant stock price increases, with China Petroleum rising by 2%, and other companies like Sinopec, CNOOC, and China Oilfield Services also experiencing gains of over 1% [2] - Brent crude oil prices reached a one-month high, closing at $72.51 per barrel, with a daily increase of 3.5% and a cumulative rise of nearly 6% over the past two days [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the potential for supply risks will increase due to the shortening of the deadline for new U.S. sanctions on Russia, alongside the ongoing traditional fuel consumption peak in the U.S. [1] - There is an expectation of a higher probability for the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments to be upward, influenced by the easing of tariff concerns following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are rising due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and short - term volatility may be severe. Pure benzene prices have upward potential due to high - level support from crude oil, but the supply - demand contradiction of sluggish destocking in ports may limit the upside. Styrene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and its supply - demand may gradually weaken. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the main pricing factors, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. In the medium term, there is pressure on high prices, and high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil can be watched [4]. - Futures strategy: Stay on the sidelines for the time being and watch for high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil in the medium term. Options strategy: Stay on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: There are multiple pure benzene, pure benzene downstream (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream production plans in different regions and enterprises in 2025, with specific production capacity and production time [6]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many pure benzene production enterprises have device maintenance plans from May to July 2025, with planned new production capacity of 133 million tons/year and downstream new production capacity of about 40 million tons/year; planned shutdown involves production capacity of 446 million tons/year, and downstream shutdown production capacity is about 589 million tons/year. Overall, supply will decrease by 23.9 million tons and demand will decrease by 34.1 million tons, showing inventory accumulation [8][9]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Profits**: Toluene disproportionation profit is low, and there are various price difference data of cracking and related products over the years [15]. - **Pure Benzene Price**: There are price data of East China pure benzene, far - month price, international quotes, and price difference data over the years. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China remain at a high level, and domestic production and imports lead to continuous inventory accumulation [20][26][31]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The weighted operating rate has increased with the resumption of styrene production. Styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: There are price and price difference data of styrene spot and futures over the years [53]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit data are provided. China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70]. - **Styrene Inventory**: Port inventory has decreased again, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [71]. - **Styrene Downstream**: High production capacity growth rate intensifies competition, and high production supports styrene demand. However, prices follow energy fluctuations, and profits are under pressure. High production leads to high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. Terminal exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy stimulation [76][81][91].