行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 4 日 能源化工研究团队 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 75 | 71.03 | 75.33 | 69.2 ...

受中东地缘局势的影响，A股油气板块近期连续大涨。值得注意的是，近2个交易日，"三桶油"历史上 首次集体收获两连板。 中国石化(600028) < 日 Q 闭市 03-03 15:00:02 融 通 额 114亿 股本 1209.26亿 市盈™ 26.2 7.82 万得 盘口 0.71 9.99% 换 1.59% 市值 8739亿 市净" 1.14 港股 5.440 -0.150 -2.68% 溢价(H/A) -38.55% 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 叠加 设均线 前复权 8.01 -7-82- 6.81 5.80 5.61 and and the state of the state of the subject of the successful a 2026-01-07 01-20 01-30 02-11 03-03 今日晚间，中国石油、中国石化与中国海油相继发布股票交易异常波动公告，提示投资者注意风险。 中国石油 公告称，公司A股股票于2026年2月27日、3月2日和3月3日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅 偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动。经自查，公司目前生产经营情况正常，近期行业政策 没有 ...

受中东地缘局势的影响，A股油气板块上演罕见大涨行情，近2个交易日， "三桶油"历史上首次集体收获两连板。今日晚间，中国石油、中国石化与 中国海油相继发布股票交易异常波动公告，提示投资者注意风险。 中国石油发布公告称，公司A股股票于2026年2月27日、3月2日和3月3日连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波 动。经自查，公司目前生产经营情况正常，近期行业政策没有发生重大变化。近期国际原油市场受地缘局势、供需格局等多重因素影响，价格呈现 宽幅震荡走势，短期油价波动存在较大不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意风险。 中国石油A股股价近两个交易日连续涨停，截至今日收盘，该股报收13.15元/股，总市值24067亿元，今年累计涨幅达26.32%。 中国石化发布公告称，公司股票于2026年2月27日、3月2日、3月3日连续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动 情形。经核实，公司生产经营情况正常，公司及控股股东均不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项。受地缘政治等因素影响，国际原油价格走势存在诸 多不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意风险。 中国石化A股股价近两个交易日连续涨停，截至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector in the A-share market is experiencing upward momentum, with the oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) showing a nearly 1% increase and achieving a four-day winning streak [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 44 million yuan [1]. - Major component stocks of the oil and gas ETF have mostly risen, with notable performances including Haiyou Engineering hitting the daily limit, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas rising over 2% [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains unstable, with the U.S. expressing a desire to reach an agreement with Iran while also issuing warnings to its citizens [4]. - Ongoing tensions in Ukraine, including recent attacks on energy facilities, contribute to the uncertainty in the oil market [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for oil prices is anchored in fundamental factors, with expectations of a continued oversupply due to OPEC+ production increases and developments in American oil fields [5]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their operations and reducing reliance on foreign energy sources, which may enhance their resilience against international oil price fluctuations [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fu (159309) focuses on the oil and gas industry chain, providing exposure to key sectors such as exploration, equipment, refining, and transportation [6]. - The ETF includes a concentrated selection of leading oil and gas companies, ensuring high purity and quality in its holdings [6]. Group 5: Index Performance - The China Securities Oil and Gas Resource Index has shown strong returns over various periods, with a six-month return of 27.92%, a one-year return of 29.85%, and a three-year return of 50.20% [7].

Group 1 - Oil and oil service stocks experienced a decline in early trading, with Shandong Molong down 8.6% to HKD 3.93, Sinopec Oilfield down 7.22% to HKD 0.9, CNOOC Oilfield down 1.98% to HKD 8.4, CNOOC down 2.87% to HKD 23.68, and PetroChina down 2.16% to HKD 9.08 [1] - WTI crude oil fell by 4% and Brent crude oil dropped by over 5% [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif indicated the possibility of reaching a fair agreement with the U.S., and an Iranian official stated that there are no plans for military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting previous reports [1] Group 2 - Huatai Futures reported that the recent rise in oil prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and liquidity factors [2] - The macro sentiment and potential stabilization of the dollar may reduce the upward pressure on oil prices, while liquidity factors could also retreat [2] - The situation in Iran remains tense, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical oil export chokepoint, necessitating close monitoring of developments [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, prices increased due to the escalation of domestic demonstrations in Iran and the US's warning. In the middle of the week, as the expectation of the US attacking Iran weakened, oil prices dropped significantly. Overall, the crude oil market still faces supply - surplus pressure, and without geopolitical drivers, it's difficult for oil prices to maintain a strong pattern [2]. - OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are operating at high production levels. It is expected that the non - OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. The situation in Venezuela may cause short - term disruptions to exports, but in the long - term, it is seen as a potential supply expansion. Overall, supply growth pressure remains, with short - term supply variables depending on Iran (geopolitical developments) and long - term on OPEC+ policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors initially drove prices up, but later the weakening of relevant expectations led to a decline. The supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market persists [2]. Key Concerns - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market**: SC crude oil futures rose from 432.70 yuan/barrel to 438.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.41% increase; Oman crude oil spot increased from 61.20 dollars/barrel to 62.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.60% increase; Brent crude oil futures went up from 63.02 dollars/barrel to 64.20 dollars/barrel, a 1.87% increase; WTI crude oil futures rose from 58.40 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a 1.78% increase [4]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production decreased from 13,792 thousand barrels per day to 13,753 thousand barrels per day, a 0.28% decline. OPEC's production situation is presented in relevant charts [4][13]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil inventory increased from 419,056 thousand barrels to 422,477 thousand barrels, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Demand**: Data such as refinery operating rates in the US, China, Europe, and India are presented in relevant charts [26][28][30]. - **Cost - profit**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased from 677 yuan/ton to 726 yuan/ton, a 7.24% increase [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Iran has restored internet and text messaging services. Trump's stance has become more rational, but the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, and the total waterborne inventory is decreasing month - on - month but higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose. The WTI and Brent markets are decoupled. European refinery profits are facing downward pressure due to rising crude oil prices. The absolute price center in the first quarter is expected to remain high. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Syrian government forces have occupied the Conoco gas field, the largest Omar oil field in the east, and two oil fields in the north. - In Iran, the armed forces' chief of staff said that hostile forces were distorting facts through the media. The supreme leader, Khamenei, said the US incited the domestic unrest in Iran, and Trump was guilty. Iran has restored text messaging and will gradually restore internet connectivity. - The US military is increasing its defensive and offensive capabilities in the Middle East in case Trump orders an attack on Iran. - The head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency visited the US to discuss the Iran situation. Trump and Netanyahu had two phone calls in two days to discuss the Iran situation, and Putin offered to mediate between Israel and Iran. [3][4][5] Inventory - In the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, an increase of 0.81%. - The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.05%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day from the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending January 9 was 8.977 million barrels, with an expected value of 3.565 million barrels and a previous value of 7.702 million barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was - 29,000 barrels, with an expected value of 512,000 barrels and a previous value of 5.594 million barrels. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, despite a generally oversupplied market and a shift towards electric vehicles [2][3][8]. Price Trends - The next price adjustment window is on January 20, with expectations of an increase of approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of about 0.06 yuan per liter [2][8]. - Since August of the previous year, there have been ten price adjustments, with six decreases and one increase, resulting in a cumulative drop of nearly 700 yuan per ton for gasoline [2][3]. Regional Price Variations - Gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with 92-octane gasoline priced at 6.66 yuan per liter in Hunan and up to 7.82 yuan in Hainan [4][5][6]. - The price for 98-octane gasoline also shows considerable regional differences, with prices reaching 9.30 yuan in Hainan and as low as 7.72 yuan in Gansu [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil supply remains ample, with U.S. shale oil production exceeding 13.8 million barrels per day and OPEC not reducing output [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.1% for the year, which is lower than the previous year, indicating a weaker demand outlook for oil [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the average international oil price may settle between $60 and $65 per barrel this year, which is lower than last year [3][8]. - The overall market is expected to remain oversupplied, with increasing competition from electric vehicles and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions [8][12].

Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to increase due to a recent adjustment window, despite a recent trend of price decreases in December 2025. The anticipated increase is approximately 50 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of about 4 to 5 cents per liter, which could impact consumers significantly over time [1][2]. Price Trends - Brent crude oil is currently priced just above $60, while WTI is around $57, showing a slight increase compared to the end of last year. The geopolitical situation remains unpredictable, affecting oil prices [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus of nearly 5 million barrels per day in global oil supply during the first quarter of this year, which may limit price increases despite geopolitical tensions [2]. Regional Price Variations - The price of 92-octane gasoline varies across different regions in China, with Beijing at 6.70 yuan, Shanghai at 6.67 yuan, and Hainan at a significantly higher 7.82 yuan. This price discrepancy is attributed to local taxes and fees [2][4]. - In the Southwest region, prices are relatively high, with Sichuan at 6.81 yuan and Yunnan at 6.85 yuan. The price of 98-octane gasoline is even higher, with prices reaching up to 9.30 yuan in Hainan [4]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of consumers rushing to fill up their tanks before the price increase, even if the difference is minimal. This behavior reflects a psychological tendency to avoid spending more than necessary [6][7]. - The overall trend in 2025 shows that there were 25 price adjustments, with 7 increases and 12 decreases, resulting in a net decrease of nearly 900 yuan per ton for the year. Despite the upcoming increase, prices remain lower than at the beginning of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market experienced significant volatility in December 2025, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and an oversupply of crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude prices declining by 1.93% and 3.72% respectively by the end of the month [5][32]. Group 1: Market Review - As of December 31, WTI crude futures closed at $57.42 per barrel, Brent at $60.85 per barrel, and INE crude at 436.5 yuan per barrel, reflecting monthly declines of 1.93%, 3.72%, and 3.19% respectively [5][32]. - The oil prices initially rose due to geopolitical tensions but fell sharply after news of potential ceasefire agreements between Russia and Ukraine, alongside bearish EIA data [6][33]. - The market saw a rebound after hitting a low of $60.16 per barrel for Brent, but the overall recovery was limited due to persistent oversupply [6][33]. Group 2: Global Supply Dynamics - Global crude oil supply remains significantly oversupplied, with U.S. crude production reaching 13.827 million barrels per day, the highest seasonal level in five years [11][38]. - U.S. crude oil demand decreased by 3.34% month-over-month, while commercial inventories stood at 422.888 million barrels, indicating a slight draw but still at a moderate seasonal level [11][38]. - The low oil prices have not substantially impacted the operational costs of U.S. shale oil production, which are estimated at around $45 per barrel [11][38]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical conflicts have become a major trading anchor, with significant events such as attacks on energy facilities by both Ukraine and Russia influencing market sentiment [23][50]. - The U.S. has intensified its blockade on Venezuela, impacting its oil exports, although the overall effect on global supply remains manageable [24][51]. - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are also contributing to market volatility and uncertainty [32].