Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - This week, global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, returning to pre - conflict levels. The crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing some strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - The core driver of the sharp price decline is the full reversal of the risk premium included in the price once oil transportation in the Middle East returns to normal after the geopolitical conflict eases. Fundamentally, Middle Eastern exports will remain stable in the short term, and with the lifting of geopolitical risks and the resumption of production at the Rabigh refinery next week, high - sulfur exports from the Middle East are expected to continue to rise, which will have a negative impact on high - sulfur prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although its demand in the bunker fuel market is continuously squeezed by high - sulfur fuel oil, exports from Brazil and north - western Europe to Asia are decreasing, and recent refinery maintenance in Japan will limit the amount of spot received in the Asia - Pacific market, supporting the time spread and crack spread of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil. In the domestic market, the low - sulfur production of domestic refineries is about to resume, but it is not expected to increase significantly in the next two months, having a relatively limited impact on the market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Weekly Review**: Global fuel oil prices dropped significantly as geopolitical conflicts eased, and the crack spread and time spread of fuel oil slightly declined from their highs, with low - sulfur fuel oil showing strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil [4]. - **Weekly Outlook**: The sharp decline in fuel oil prices is due to the reversal of the risk premium. Middle Eastern high - sulfur exports are expected to rise, negatively affecting high - sulfur prices. Low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market will see limited spot receipts, supporting its time spread and crack spread. Domestic low - sulfur production is expected to have a limited impact on the market in the short term [4]. 2. Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [19]. 3. Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for bunkering in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [22]. 4. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the inventories of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [25][27][28]. 5. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, and 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [32][35][36][38][39]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and high - sulfur fuel oil cargo in New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [42][43]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swap prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in north - western Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU contracts from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [45][46][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [51][53]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [55][56][58]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Time Spread**: Data on the time spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63][65]. 6. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [69][71][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [76].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guota ...