记者丨黄子潇 有观点认为，7月前后的"牛市"或并非同一个"牛市"。尽管沪指从今年4月的3100余点拉升至目前逼近 3900点，但7月份以前，银行板块贡献了绝大多数的涨幅，而7月之后则是科技板块领涨，两者背后逻辑 不同。 多位分析人士表示，银行股持续回调既有受部分资金"分红即走"的策略影响，也有市场风格切换的因 素。获利筹码正在从银行等防御板块撤出，转向成长板块以追求更高的收益。 图1：市场风格或出现切换 与基本面关系不大 编辑丨孙超逸 8月最后一个交易日收官。8月29日收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深证成指涨0.99%，沪深两市成交额仍高达2.8 万亿。 不过，银行板块29日冲高回落。wind银行业指数早盘一度上涨1.3%，但全天走出"倒V"型走势，最终收 跌0.77%。 若拉长时间线来看，在7月10日的高点前后，银行板块呈现出一个更大的"倒V型"，共有17家银行跌幅 超过10%，银行板块至今已持续回调月余。 银行股何时企稳 21世纪经济报道记者据Wind数据统计，从7月11日至8月29日的区间涨跌幅来看，42家上市银行中仅有4 家上涨，其余均有所下跌。 共17家银行跌幅超过10%，包括1家国有银行（交通银行）、5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has experienced a significant correction since July, with many banks seeing declines over 10%, attributed to a shift in market style from defensive to growth sectors, rather than fundamental issues within the banks themselves [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99%, with a total trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [1]. - The banking sector initially rose by 1.3% but ended the day down by 0.77%, indicating a "V-shaped" reversal [1]. Decline in Banking Stocks - From July 11 to August 29, only 4 out of 42 listed banks saw an increase in their stock prices, with 17 banks experiencing declines exceeding 10% [3][4]. - Notable declines included Minsheng Bank (-16.18%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (-15.79%), and Beijing Bank (-15.25%) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Analysts suggest that the ongoing pressure on the banking sector is not the primary cause of the stock price declines, as the fundamental performance of banks has been weak for three years [4][5]. - A rare negative growth in new credit data in July and a projected 1.2% decline in net profit for commercial banks in the first half of 2025 further highlight the challenges faced by the sector [3][4]. Market Style Shift - The shift in market style is characterized by a transition of funds from defensive sectors like banking to growth sectors, driven by a desire for higher returns [1][5]. - The banking sector contributed significantly to the market's rise earlier in the year, but since July, technology and innovation sectors have taken the lead [5]. Future Outlook for Banking Stocks - Tianfeng Securities views the current correction in banking stocks as a "bull market interlude," suggesting it is not the end of the bullish trend [7]. - The firm believes that the appeal of banking stocks remains strong due to their relatively high dividend yields of 3%-4% and low valuations compared to other financial assets [7][8]. - Structural opportunities exist within the banking sector, as some banks have reported better-than-expected earnings, such as Xi'an Bank, which saw a 43.7% increase in revenue year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of bull markets and emphasizes that once a main theme is established, it tends to persist throughout the bull market, with occasional adjustments but overall strength until the market ends [5][6]. Market Characteristics - Historical bull markets from 2005 to 2021 show significant style shifts, with small-cap stocks performing well before 2007, while large-cap stocks dominated afterward, leading to a rapid increase from around 3000 points to 6124 points [7]. - In the 2014-2015 bull market, large-cap stocks like brokers, banks, and insurance companies initially performed well, but by 2015, smaller stocks began to gain momentum, culminating in a focus on innovative companies [7]. - The 2019-2021 bull market exhibited less clear style shifts, with initial gains driven by emerging industries, followed by a recovery led by core assets like Moutai and Meidi after the pandemic [8]. Investment Behavior - Investors often enter the market gradually, with many being late to the party, which creates opportunities for price increases as they catch up [8]. - Not all investors chase high prices; some remain cautious, leading to a natural flow of funds towards lower-risk assets [9]. Future Market Outlook - The current market shows strong performance in small-cap stocks, while large-cap stocks have been relatively stagnant, suggesting a potential scenario similar to 2017 where the market may not be classified as a true bull market without the participation of large-cap stocks [11]. - For a sustained bull market akin to previous years, large-cap stocks must not be absent; otherwise, the overall index may struggle to rise significantly [11].