2025.12. 24 市场呈现强普涨特征,市场情绪回暖,赚钱效应 从"局部修复"转向"全面扩散",是政策、景气 度与资金面共振的结果。中小盘成长股(商业航 天、算力硬件、PCB等）领涨,权重股 (如金融、 地产、消费)稳定支撑,贵金属、保险、乳业等传 统行业板块有所调整。 资金情经 主力资金净流入 A股市场呈现震荡拉升格局,三大指数均实现小幅上涨。上证指数主要受权重股稳定及题材 股轮动支撑。深证成指涨幅最大,主要受题材股活跃及中小盘成长股上涨驱动。创业板指在 科技、算力等成长股的上涨推动下实现温和涨幅。 4125家上涨 涨跌停比 37 HG 两市成交额 ● ● 万亿元 ▼1.03% 两市成交额小幅缩量,但市场普涨、抛压减轻、 资金聚焦高景气赛道,从高位题材股(如新能 源、消费电子）流向低估值蓝筹(如银行、公用 事业)与科技龙头(如AI算力、半导体)。调仓 行为导致市场"赚钱效应"分散,部分资金选择 观望,从而抑制了成交额的扩张。 散户资金净流入 机构聚焦高景气赛道. 结构分化显著. 电子、半导体、液冷设备等科技成长板块成为核心配置方向,减仓有 色金属、贵金属等传统周期板块。散户短期博弈、追逐热点，资金活跃于 ...

周四上午市场呈现沪深分化的格局，投资者可以看到，早盘沪指低开13点于3857点，创业板低开37点于 3138点，两市787股上涨，4158股下跌，市场低开最低3856点以后支撑反弹，盘中翻红，个股普涨，两 市超过4000股上涨，最高3880点确认反压，沪指午盘小幅红盘，收于上午相对高位区域；创业板和深成 指因为权重大科技概念股的领跌调整，所以上午低迷绿盘震荡，但板块个股也是涨多跌少的格局！最终 沪指收涨6点于3876点，创业板收跌57点于3118点！那么对于这种行情，投资者该如何看待和解读呢？ 通过今天上午市场盘面可以看到，两市上涨个股3607家，其中涨幅超过9%的个股79家，涨幅超3%的个 股499家；下跌个股1673家，其中跌幅超过9%的个股4家，跌幅超过3%的个股116家！通过个股数据 看，两市个股明显涨多跌少，涨跌个股比接近7:3，多方占据明显优势，盘面情况跟昨天收盘差不多， 盘面之前领涨虚拉指数的大科技权重板块个股领跌明显，拖累创业板、深成指等指数明显，宁德时代、 工业富联、中际旭创、新易盛、阳光电源、生益科技……一个个耳熟能详，之前虚拉指数领涨，今天明 显跌回去了，所以大部分个股，大涨以后，还是学 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the characteristics of bull markets and emphasizes that once a main theme is established, it tends to persist throughout the bull market, with occasional adjustments but overall strength until the market ends [5][6]. Market Characteristics - Historical bull markets from 2005 to 2021 show significant style shifts, with small-cap stocks performing well before 2007, while large-cap stocks dominated afterward, leading to a rapid increase from around 3000 points to 6124 points [7]. - In the 2014-2015 bull market, large-cap stocks like brokers, banks, and insurance companies initially performed well, but by 2015, smaller stocks began to gain momentum, culminating in a focus on innovative companies [7]. - The 2019-2021 bull market exhibited less clear style shifts, with initial gains driven by emerging industries, followed by a recovery led by core assets like Moutai and Meidi after the pandemic [8]. Investment Behavior - Investors often enter the market gradually, with many being late to the party, which creates opportunities for price increases as they catch up [8]. - Not all investors chase high prices; some remain cautious, leading to a natural flow of funds towards lower-risk assets [9]. Future Market Outlook - The current market shows strong performance in small-cap stocks, while large-cap stocks have been relatively stagnant, suggesting a potential scenario similar to 2017 where the market may not be classified as a true bull market without the participation of large-cap stocks [11]. - For a sustained bull market akin to previous years, large-cap stocks must not be absent; otherwise, the overall index may struggle to rise significantly [11].

Group 1 - Recent strong performance of thematic stocks, with the CSI 1000 index reaching a new high [2] - The 2-hour chart indicates a 3-wave structure in an upward trend, with the C wave currently in the C5 phase [2] - The 2-hour chart has shown 7 consecutive bullish candles, suggesting an increasing probability of a bearish reversal soon [2] Group 2 - Weaker performance observed in heavyweight stocks, with the FTSE A50 index futures closing down [4] - The 4-hour chart shows a 3-wave downward structure followed by a rebound, which is currently facing resistance at the neckline [4] - The upcoming period around the start of autumn may reveal whether the market will peak or continue to rise significantly [4]

Group 1 - The A50 index is currently experiencing a significant decline, with a drop of nearly 1% as of 4:30 PM, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - The daily trend of the A50 index shows a continuation of the downtrend since breaking below the white bullish line on May 23, with resistance from the bullish line persisting [3] - The index is far from the upper bullish line and has shown signs of further weakness, having broken below the green long-term trend line, indicating a fully bearish state on the daily level [3] Group 2 - The weekly trend also reflects a continuation of the downtrend, with the weekly bullish line currently trending downward [5] - A support level is identified around 13,140 points, and if this level is breached, the next support to watch is around 12,950 points [5] - To reverse the current trend, the index needs to reclaim levels above 13,350 points, which appears to be a challenging task given the current bearish conditions on both daily and weekly levels [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a divergence, with weight sectors like banks, coal, and electricity driving the index up, while sectors like liquor and securities are not participating in the rally [3][5] - Small and mid-cap stocks are showing some activity, but the overall sentiment is that many investors are not seeing gains, indicating a potential for further market acceleration if certain sectors align [3][6] - The current market environment suggests that the index is being held back intentionally, rather than being unable to rise, with dividend stocks remaining attractive and growth sectors poised for a rebound [5][6] Group 2 - A bullish outlook for A-shares is anticipated, with expectations of a breakout above 3400 points, driven by a few stocks rather than a broad market rally [6][7] - The positions of liquor, securities, and real estate sectors are seen as limiting the downside potential of the index, indicating a protective mechanism in place [9] - The market is in a phase of accumulation, with a new acceleration phase expected, although the timing remains uncertain [9]

今天几乎所有群都在热议琼瑶的去世，86岁的她选择在家中自杀的方式结束生命，并对公众留下了遗书和告别视频。 让我颇感触动的是她的遗书里有专门一段内容，是劝诫青少年不可以一时的挫折打击就放弃生命，要像她一样不辜负生命，不要错过属于自己的精彩。我 把相关内容引用一下： 注意，我「死亡」的方式，是在我生命的終站實行的!年輕的你們，千萬不要輕易放棄生命，一時的挫折打擊，可能是美好生命中的「磨 練」，希望你們經得起磨練，像我一樣，活到八十六、七歲，體力不支時，再來選擇如何面對死亡。但願那時，人類已經找到很人道的方式， 來幫助「老人」們，快樂的「歸去」! 親愛的你們，要勇敢，要活出強大的「自我」，不要辜負來世間一趟！這世間，雖然不是十全十美，也 有各種意外的喜怒哀樂！別錯過那些厲於你的精彩! 琼瑶遗书 自杀的人看多了，遗书也看多了，像她这样自杀还会考虑社会影响，自己已经死了还想着用遗书传播正向的人生观，这种情况不多见，说明她不是因为厌 世而离世，她确实在一个积极的心态下选择了了断。 写到这我回想起2019年的时候平鑫涛病危，琼瑶不忍丈夫被病魔折磨的神志不清，形容枯槁，建议对他实行安乐死，但遭到了平鑫涛前妻的几个孩子们的 反 ...

但这个消息对微盘股是有利的，a股一向有着明显的跷跷板效应，小票涨的太好就会虹吸大票的资金， 大票涨的好就会虹吸小票的资金，真就是全家只有一条裤子，我穿你没，你穿我没。权重股遭遇暴击， 正好方便一些资金出逃，去微盘股那边抄底。 这背后的核心原因还是a股常年亏钱效应，恶名在外，已经很难再吸引新的韭菜进场，没有增量资金可 不就是残酷的存量博弈。 今天我设局让你接我的盘，明天你偷偷掏我裤兜里的铜板，整个赌场的风气就是又卷又鸡贼，短短半年 时间已经炒了二十几个概念，但大部分都持续不到一星期。别说韭菜们在骂娘，其实镰刀们也觉得很难 受。 我从前几年就经历了沮丧到失望，再到心灰意冷，逐渐减配a股，转投别的领域。我救不了a股，我只能 先救救我自己。 我这几年 靠着点运气， 确实在 境外赚了一些钱， 所以更深刻的理解了 选择大于努 力 。 你们如果看了我这两年大部分的文章，就应该能很明显的感受到我调仓后的心境变化。 今天小微盘股终于喘了一口气，整体反弹了4.8%，差不多覆盖了昨天的损失。这一切在昨晚就有所预 兆，一来纯技术面有超跌反弹的需求，二来证监会迫于压力专门出来安抚市场，4月中旬那次也是监管 层安抚完就涨了。 还有第三个 ...