Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes the importance of month-on-month (MoM) price changes over year-on-year (YoY) changes, providing a clearer understanding of price differentiation trends in the current year [4][14]. CPI Analysis - Overall, the cumulative MoM increase in CPI for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024. However, the core CPI shows a cumulative MoM increase of 0.5%, slightly better than the 0.4% increase in the same period [5][15]. - In terms of categories, food prices have a cumulative MoM increase of -0.6% (compared to -1% in the past four years), rent at 0.1% (0% previously), and core goods at 0.9% (0.1% previously) are considered "strong." Conversely, energy prices at -2.3% (3.8% previously) and core services (excluding rent) at 0.5% (1.2% previously) are deemed "weak" [5][15]. - Detailed breakdowns show that within food, fresh fruits, beef, lamb, and pork prices are "strong" with declines of -7.4% and -16.4%, while grains, cooking oils, fresh vegetables, seafood, and dairy prices are "weak." In energy, water, electricity, and fuel prices are "weak" with a decline of -5.4% [6][16]. PPI Analysis - The cumulative MoM increase in PPI for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, which is weaker than the -0.5% increase during the same period last year [8][23]. - In terms of categories, clothing (0% this year vs. -0.2% last year) and general daily necessities (0.2% vs. 0.1%) are "strong," while mining (-8.7% vs. -1.2%), raw materials (-2.4% vs. 0.9%), and durable goods (-1.4% vs. -1.2%) are "weak" [8][23]. - Among 32 comparable industries, 10 show "strong" prices, mainly in downstream manufacturing and electric water industries. In mining, black metal extraction is "strong," while coal extraction and oil and gas extraction are "weak" [9][24]. May Inflation Data Review - CPI shows a slight decline both YoY and MoM, with food prices experiencing a small YoY drop and energy prices seeing a deeper YoY decline. Core CPI shows a slight YoY increase [29][39]. - The MoM CPI decreased by 0.2%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past five years. Food prices shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.2% decrease, while energy prices dropped by 1.7% [31][39]. - The core CPI reflects a 0.1% decrease in rent, which is lower than the 2015-2019 average, and a stable core goods price. Durable goods prices continue to decline, with transportation tools down by 0.4% [32][36]. Price Change Proportions - The proportion of CPI items with price increases has expanded, with the ratio rising from 24% to 29%, which is at the 11% percentile since 2016 [44]. - Conversely, the proportion of PPI industries with price increases has significantly narrowed, with the number of industries increasing prices dropping from 8 to 5, resulting in a decrease from 27% to 17% [46].

Macro Analysis - In May, domestic prices continued to operate at low levels due to falling energy prices and weak investment demand, but prices for travel services, some consumer manufacturing, and high-tech products increased, indicating the acceleration of new momentum [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain low, with the recent increase in pig supply due to regulatory impacts leading to weaker pork prices, potentially creating new downward pressure [1] - PPI is anticipated to see a narrowing of the month-on-month decline as oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve, with attention on the support from new policy financial tools for investment [1] Market Strategy - Most major asset classes rose this week, with WTI crude oil prices leading in gains and the US dollar index showing a notable decline [2] - The A-share broad indices all rose, with the ChiNext index showing the highest increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest rise [2] - Most industries experienced gains, with telecommunications leading in growth and home appliances showing a decline [2] Company Research - The basic situation of property management remains stable, with Sunac Services (1516.HK) poised for independent development [3] - Sunac China’s recent offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received 82% support from bondholders, and the total sales amount for May was 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [3] - The impact of related parties on Sunac Services is expected to be alleviated, with sufficient provisions for trade receivables impairment, allowing the company to potentially break free from real estate influences starting in 2025 and enter a stable growth trajectory [3] - Forecasted net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is 420 million, 520 million, and 620 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [3]