点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点一：市场或进入宽幅震荡阶段 9月A股震荡上行，主要宽基指数涨多跌少，从股权风险溢价来看，当前市场或仍具有一定的性价比。持续 的"赚钱效应"是短期资金持续流入的基础，目前个人投资者资金仍处于入市过程之中，未来居民或许也将通过 基金以及理财等方式入市，中长期资金流入斜率减缓，但仍然是市场中期稳定器。 当前上市公司盈利仍待企稳，三季度经济复苏进程仍相对偏缓，不过部分领域数据有所改善，如1-8月工业企 业利润总额累计同比增速回升、8月PPI同比降幅收窄。此外，未来国内出口或仍将保持韧性，内需改善的持续 性或许会超预期。整体来看，在政策支持下，四季度A股盈利有望小幅修复，为市场增添新动力。 核心观点三：把握成长主线 流动性驱动行 ...

Macro Analysis - In May, domestic prices continued to operate at low levels due to falling energy prices and weak investment demand, but prices for travel services, some consumer manufacturing, and high-tech products increased, indicating the acceleration of new momentum [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain low, with the recent increase in pig supply due to regulatory impacts leading to weaker pork prices, potentially creating new downward pressure [1] - PPI is anticipated to see a narrowing of the month-on-month decline as oil prices stabilize and trade conditions improve, with attention on the support from new policy financial tools for investment [1] Market Strategy - Most major asset classes rose this week, with WTI crude oil prices leading in gains and the US dollar index showing a notable decline [2] - The A-share broad indices all rose, with the ChiNext index showing the highest increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the lowest rise [2] - Most industries experienced gains, with telecommunications leading in growth and home appliances showing a decline [2] Company Research - The basic situation of property management remains stable, with Sunac Services (1516.HK) poised for independent development [3] - Sunac China’s recent offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received 82% support from bondholders, and the total sales amount for May was 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [3] - The impact of related parties on Sunac Services is expected to be alleviated, with sufficient provisions for trade receivables impairment, allowing the company to potentially break free from real estate influences starting in 2025 and enter a stable growth trajectory [3] - Forecasted net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is 420 million, 520 million, and 620 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [3]