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亚马逊:不要等到它进入野兽模式
美股研究社· 2025-07-07 14:10
Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock price has been underperforming despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, with a nearly 40% increase since April, indicating a divergence in market expectations and performance [1][3]. Group 1: E-commerce and Profitability - Amazon's e-commerce revenue growth has slowed, with a year-over-year increase of less than 10% in the past 12 months, yet operating profit surged over 35% during the same period, highlighting significant operational leverage [1]. - The low profit margins in both the U.S. (4.8%) and international markets (2.7%) suggest that Amazon has made remarkable progress in profitability, contributing approximately 55% to its overall valuation [1]. - Amazon's dominant position in the U.S. e-commerce market, significantly ahead of Walmart, provides substantial operational leverage for expansion, allowing for aggressive investments in logistics and fulfillment networks [4]. Group 2: AWS and AI Development - Amazon Web Services (AWS) has become crucial since the rise of artificial intelligence (Gen AI), benefiting from significant investments in AI chip development, such as Tranium and Inferentia, which have been successfully integrated into its infrastructure [2]. - Despite initial struggles in establishing an AI narrative, Amazon has developed top-tier models accessible to developers and enterprise clients, positioning itself favorably against competitors like Microsoft and Google [2]. Group 3: Future Growth and Market Sentiment - The market appears to undervalue Amazon's leadership in e-commerce and cloud computing, which are expected to continue driving operational leverage and support its valuation [3]. - Projections indicate that EBITDA margins could rise from 11% in FY2024 to nearly 14% by FY2027, suggesting significant potential for profit growth [6]. - Despite a decline in revenue growth rates compared to pre-2022 levels, Amazon is expected to continue investing heavily in AI to reduce costs and enhance shareholder value [6]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - Amazon's stock price trend remains upward compared to its Nasdaq peers, with current valuations near the 50-week moving average, indicating strong buying support for investors looking to increase their positions [8]. - Although the stock's relative premium prevents analysts from upgrading ratings to "strong buy," maintaining a bullish outlook and strategically adding to positions is considered a viable strategy [8].