证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《智能制造行业周报：宇树机器人运动会表现 突出，硬件自研与产业链协同优势凸显》 2025-08-19 《智能制造行业周报：2025 世界机器人大会： 人形机器人应用多元化全面提速》2025-08-12 《智能制造行业周报：宇树科技加速产品降本 与应用场景扩展》2025-08-04 《智能制造行业周报：如何从水电站全建设期， 看工程机械投资节奏？》2025-07-30 《智能制造行业周报：宇树科技启动 IPO 辅导， 机器人资本化进程再进一步》2025-07-21 行业及产业 机械设备 物理 AI 有望开启万亿美元市场空间 ——智能制造周报（2025/08/18-2025/08/22） 本周（2025/08/18-2025/08/22）沪深 300 指数+4.18%，其中机械设备板块+2.75%，申 万一级行业排名 17/31 位。机械设备子板块中，工程机械器件+7.72%，表现最佳。估值层 面，机械设备板块 PE-TTM 为 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Agent Technology in the Computer Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agent technology** within the **computer industry**, highlighting its development stages: **Generative AI**, **Agentic AI**, and **Physical AI**. Currently, Generative AI has been implemented, with future advancements expected towards Agentic AI [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Potential and ROI**: The evaluation of Agent technology's application prospects should consider market space and return on investment (ROI). High-salary industries such as finance, law, and the internet have significant replacement potential, especially in scenarios with high fault tolerance and quick result validation, such as programming [1][3][7]. - **AI in Finance**: AI is accelerating the replacement of traditional operations in the financial sector, particularly in banking and securities. Companies like **Alpha派** are transforming financial services, while AI applications in human resources, such as recruitment and resume matching, are also gaining traction [1][8]. - **Customer Service and Marketing**: The implementation of AI in customer service and marketing is progressing rapidly, with substantial market potential. The market space can be quantified by multiplying the number of employees by their salaries and the replacement rate [1][9]. - **Programming as a Key Area**: Programming is identified as the most mature field for AI application, with predictions from **OpenAI** and **Anthropic** indicating that most coding tasks will be completed by AI by the end of this year or next [1][10]. Companies to Watch - **Leading Companies**: In the general Agent technology space, companies such as **Kingsoft**, **Tencent**, and **Alibaba** are viewed favorably. For enterprise applications, **Kingdee**, **Hand Information**, and **Dingjie** are highlighted as key targets. In vertical applications, companies in programming, human resources, and banking are also recommended for ongoing observation [1][4][11]. - **Alibaba's Ecosystem**: Alibaba is noted for its comprehensive advantages in foundational model capabilities, hardware, and ecosystem, making related core targets worth monitoring [1][5][12]. Additional Important Points - **Development Path of Agent Technology**: The development path of Agent technology is segmented into Generative AI, Agentic AI, and Physical AI, with a focus on autonomy and human replacement. Key elements include memory, planning, tool invocation, and execution [1][6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Continuous attention to the overall investment rhythm of computer companies is advised, as the industry still holds significant investment potential despite perceived profitability challenges [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Agent technology landscape within the computer industry, highlighting market opportunities, company prospects, and strategic insights for investors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The WAIC 2025 showcased significant advancements in domestic AI technology, indicating a shift from being a "follower" to a "leader" in the AI sector. This includes developments in domestic computing power, large models, and AI applications, which are expected to evolve in a synergistic manner [11]. - Huawei's unveiling of the Ascend 384 SuperNode at WAIC 2025 represents a major leap in domestic AI computing capabilities, with over 80 mainstream large models already adapted for this technology. This architecture is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of domestic computing power [7][11]. - The launch of the new 321 B-MoE large model by Jieyue Xingchen is set to open a new round of competition in multi-modal models, emphasizing the trend of "open-source + extreme inference efficiency" in domestic large model iterations [7][11]. - Alibaba Cloud's Baolian platform, recognized at WAIC 2025, has integrated over 200 mainstream models and attracted more than 200,000 developers, indicating a rapid acceleration in the commercialization of domestic AI applications [7][11]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power - The Ascend 384 SuperNode features a high-bandwidth, low-latency interconnection among 384 NPUs, addressing communication bottlenecks within clusters and enhancing performance for model training and inference [7]. - The performance of SGLang and DeepSeek on the CloudMatrix384 has surpassed their performance on NV H100 and H800, showcasing the potential of domestic computing architectures [7]. Large Models and AI Applications - The 321 B-MoE model is expected to achieve three times the inference efficiency of DeepSeek-R1 on domestic chips and a 70% throughput increase on NVIDIA Hopper, highlighting the competitive edge of domestic models [7]. - The trend of open-source large models combined with domestic chips is projected to accelerate the growth of AI applications in China [7]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hengwei Technology (603496.SH), Youke De-W (688158.SH), YunSai ZhiLian (600602.SH), and Data Port (603881.SH) for domestic computing power. For large models and AI applications, companies like Dingjie Zhizhi (300378.SZ), HanDe Information (300170.SZ), and SuoChen Technology (688507.SH) are highlighted [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the sector [6][7]. Core Insights - The computer industry is experiencing a low holding ratio, with public fund allocation at 2.6% in Q2 2025, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking 13th among 30 primary industries [8][9]. - AI remains the main theme for the computer sector throughout 2025, supported by three key factors: the introduction of domestic super-node solutions improving cost-performance, the launch of several foundational large models driving AI applications into commercialization, and continuous innovations across various fields such as stablecoins and 3D printing [9][11]. - The report highlights significant company updates, particularly the official upgrade of iFLYTEK's reasoning large model X1, which enhances capabilities in multiple languages and applications [38][43]. Summary by Sections Investment Allocation - In Q2 2025, the computer industry's public fund allocation decreased to 2.6%, marking a historical low since 2010, with a configuration coefficient of 0.56, down from 0.67 in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - The report suggests increasing positions in Hong Kong-listed computer stocks such as Kingdee and Meitu [6][7]. AI Development - The report identifies three main drivers for the future performance of the computer industry: 1. The launch of domestic super-node solutions that enhance cost-performance and reduce the gap with overseas solutions [9][10]. 2. The introduction of multiple foundational large models that facilitate the commercialization of AI applications [10][11]. 3. Ongoing innovations in various sectors, including stablecoins and 3D printing, which are expected to gain traction [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - As of July 22, 2025, the computer industry’s PE (TTM) stands at 85.4x, placing it in the 93.40% historical percentile, while the PS (TTM) is at 3.4x, in the 48.90% historical percentile [24][25]. - The report notes that current valuation levels exceed those of 2020 and 2023, reflecting optimistic market expectations regarding potential profitability [24][25]. Company Updates - iFLYTEK's reasoning large model X1 has been officially upgraded, showcasing improvements in comprehensive capabilities and multi-language support, with applications in education, healthcare, and enterprise solutions [38][43]. - The report emphasizes the growth trend in AI revenue for iFLYTEK, with significant increases in both consumer and enterprise AI solutions [44]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the varying rhythms of different technology sectors, influenced by the certainty and traceability of new technologies, with AI applications expected to follow a similar trajectory to cloud computing [36][37]. - The report anticipates a rapid increase in market capitalization for AI-related companies as performance metrics begin to materialize in the latter half of 2025 [37][38].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors, with a notable improvement in sentiment and performance metrics [3][6]. Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights a "tariff pulse" affecting trade volumes, with U.S. imports showing weakness in May but expected to recover in June, albeit not returning to the high levels seen in Q1 [3]. - Inflationary pressures are still being transmitted through prices, with slight increases noted since late May [3]. - Business confidence has improved slightly in May but remains low, suggesting a slow recovery pace ahead [3]. Sector Analysis TMT Sector - The TMT sector is experiencing a significant recovery, driven by trends in AI, with components such as storage chains, communication devices, and gaming showing upward momentum [3]. - Software within the TMT sector is stabilizing after a downturn [3]. Advanced Manufacturing - Advanced manufacturing is seeing a recovery in demand, with sectors like general automation, wind power, photovoltaic, and aerospace equipment showing signs of improvement [3]. - Capacity adjustments in advanced manufacturing are contributing to this recovery [3]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is witnessing early signs of recovery, particularly in new consumption and mass-market products, with personal care and accessories showing improvement [3]. - Categories such as beer, condiments, and dairy products are also experiencing a rebound [3]. Other Sectors - The pharmaceutical sector is seeing a revival in investment cycles, while insurance and electricity sectors are also showing positive trends [3]. - Precious metals are maintaining high levels, indicating strong demand [3]. Automotive Industry Insights - Major automotive companies like BYD, Geely, SAIC, and Great Wall have committed to standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days, which is expected to alleviate concerns regarding repayment capabilities and promote healthier industry dynamics [6]. - The average capital turnover rates for components, complete vehicle manufacturers, and dealers are reported at 4.5, 2.2, and 8.9 respectively, indicating a structured financial ecosystem [6]. - The anticipated output from vehicle manufacturers is approximately 42.4 billion yuan, which may create short-term cash flow pressures but is deemed manageable [6]. Company Ratings - The report includes a new buy rating for XGIMI Technology (极米科技) with a target price of 150.00 yuan, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 5.00 yuan for 2025 [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI industry is entering a new phase with embedded applications becoming mainstream, as traditional software companies like Wanda, Google, and Microsoft integrate AI features into their products, changing market perceptions of AI deployment speed [1][3][4] - By 2025, global computing power supply issues are expected to be resolved, shifting the core challenge to demand growth [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite limited daily active user growth for native AI applications, TOKEN consumption is increasing exponentially, indicating a future supply-demand imbalance in computing power by June 2025 [1][5] - Google’s TOKEN usage has increased 50 times year-over-year, with expectations of nearly 10 times growth in the coming year [1][5] - The market's understanding of AI product promotion cycles is flawed; AI products are penetrating the market much faster than traditional industries, as evidenced by ChatGPT reaching Google’s search scale in just two years [1][7] Future Directions of AI Models - Future updates in AI models will focus on multi-modal capabilities, physical AI, and the anticipated ChatGPT 5 [1][8] - Multi-modal AI will include video understanding and generation, while physical AI will involve applications in autonomous driving, robotics, and smart glasses [1][8] Important Events and Product Launches - Key upcoming events include Apple's WWDC on June 10 and ByteDance's native ecosystem conference on June 11, which may lead to significant product updates [1][11] - Tesla is set to showcase its RoboTaxi feature on June 12, which will demonstrate autonomous driving capabilities [1][13] Hardware and Chip Companies - There is optimism regarding overseas computing power, multi-modal related chip companies, and the domestic computing industry chain [2][14] - Starshine Technology is excelling in security and home monitoring sectors and is expanding into automotive ISP chip business [2][15] Market Sentiment and Challenges - Starshine Technology's recent share reduction announcement may temporarily affect market sentiment but does not alter the positive outlook on multi-modal learning and the ISP industry [2][17] - Domestic computing faces challenges, particularly with yield issues at SMIC due to local component shortages, but recovery is expected by July [2][19] Investment Outlook - The AI industry is viewed as a long-term trend rather than a short-term investment cycle, with significant ongoing investments from major global players [2][20] - There is a strong recommendation to maintain confidence in AI, particularly in overseas computing power and domestic computing developments [2][20]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The manufacturing PMI recorded a slight increase to 50.5% in March, with production and new orders indices rising marginally [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of pricing long-term positive factors during market adjustments, suggesting that the market is transitioning to a more pragmatic stance [9] - The bond market is expected to perform well due to the unexpected tariffs, with a shift towards a steeper yield curve anticipated [16] Group 2: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance with better-than-expected interest margins, focusing on high-dividend stocks [19] - The real estate sector is under pressure but is expected to show signs of bottoming out, with the importance of stabilizing the sector increasing amid trade tensions [23] - Construction investment is anticipated to recover, driven by improvements in manufacturing PMI and external shocks [25] Group 3: Materials and Energy Sector - Oil prices have declined due to OPEC's production increase and tariff impacts, but shale oil costs provide strong support for prices [26] - The chemical sector is responding to U.S. tariffs with a focus on self-sufficiency, highlighting the importance of domestic production trends [31] - The coal market is expected to stabilize as demand increases with the arrival of the peak season, supported by fiscal policies [36] Group 4: Consumer and Healthcare Sector - The pharmaceutical industry remains optimistic despite potential tariff impacts, particularly in the innovative drug supply chain [24] - The agricultural sector is under scrutiny due to unexpected tariff policies, with a focus on investment opportunities in various sub-sectors [11] Group 5: Technology and AI Sector - The AI industry is experiencing significant breakthroughs, with a focus on domestic computing power and the emergence of physical AI as a new frontier [4] - The report highlights the potential for AI applications in low-digital penetration sectors such as finance, education, and healthcare [4]